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2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_fob": 246107, "latest_year_fob": 3915652.4099999997, "peak_year": 2025, "peak_fob": 3915652.4099999997, "avg_annual_fob": 841900.5799999998, "median_annual_fob": 46440, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 15.910365857127184, "latest_vs_first_growth": 14.910365857127184, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "peak_multiple": 84.31637403100774, "cagr_fob": 0.9971930292487761 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [], "dominant_group": null, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 0, "total_group_count": 0, "summary_text": "", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": {} }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": null, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "reorder_partial_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.4869585646324178, "supplier_count": 8, "top_supplier_sample_count": 0, "external_group_count": 0, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "mid", "label": "中度渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 0, "to_year": null, "from_share": 0, "to_share": 0, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "mid_penetration_deepen", "scenario_label": "中度渗透 · 深化型", "opportunity_type": "份额争夺型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "扩大现有份额 / 深化渗透", "advantage_focus": "增量份额 + 现有基础", "resource_boundary": "先沿现有中国份额往上做，不必重走教育流程。", "matrix_mode": "mid_penetration", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.4869585646324178, "annualized_fob": 841900.5799999998, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 35, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 3682.8549465647484, "top_supplier_pct": 0.4869585646324178, "top1_first_year_share": null, "top1_first_active_year": null, "top1_first_active_share": null, "top1_latest_year_share": null, "top1_peak_share": null, "top1_peak_share_year": null, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": null, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": null, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": null, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 14.910365857127184, "cagr_fob": 0.9971930292487761, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2025, "peak_fob": 3915652.4099999997, "latest_year_fob": 3915652.4099999997 }, "trigger_summary": [ "中度渗透（中国采购 49%）", "主供稳定 · 0年 0% → 0年 0%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "中度集中（HHI 3,683 · Top1 49%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": {} }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 35, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 444.44444444444446, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.01–$0.52（FOB 占比 17%）；中价带 $0.53–$0.75（FOB 占比 49%）；高价带 $0.80–$5.40（FOB 占比 34%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 718731.4600000001, "fob_share": 0.17074022208180448, "min_unit_price": 0.012150000000000001, "max_unit_price": 0.5166666666666667, "avg_unit_price": 0.23346068751693091, "median_unit_price": 0.17807689062499998 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 2069382.8299999996, "fob_share": 0.4915979105276301, "min_unit_price": 0.5349306481481482, "max_unit_price": 0.7519642857142856, "avg_unit_price": 0.5861709831624032, "median_unit_price": 0.544073944028298 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 11, "fob_total_usd": 1421388.6099999999, "fob_share": 0.33766186739056525, "min_unit_price": 0.8045346666666666, "max_unit_price": 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