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"avg_annual_fob": 890465.56, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 2.5 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 7.38, "p75": 20.04 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 716717.19, "latest_year_fob": 603736.92, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 1402827.79, "avg_annual_fob": 890465.5616666662, "median_annual_fob": 723679.5549999999, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.8423642245834791, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.15763577541652085, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.4303713715280762, "peak_multiple": 1.9384654165060669, "cagr_fob": -0.03372669224314728 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "WUZHOU" ], "primary_name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530", "name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "fob": 3984116.5600000005, "pct": 0.7456991659776658, "qty": 142931880, "shipment_count": 158, "avg_unit_price": 0.027874233236140186, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.03316887097405882, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.9668311290259411, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.03316887097405882, "2011": 0.2104120131052106, "2012": 0.9307655383364809, "2013": 0.8834266721630276, "2014": 1, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 4, "supplier_market_share": 0.07310524781832103, "supplier_total_fob": 5885938.650000001, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 5604.45242627521, "competitive_index": 5.35, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530" ], "aliases": [ "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7456991659776658, "total_fob": 3984116.5600000005, "label": "WUZHOU", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "GUILIN", "HBM", "HEALTHECARES" ], "primary_name": "GUILIN HBM HEALTHECARES, INC.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "bc93f718-91d8-4586-8002-ad78761d0472", "name": "GUILIN HBM HEALTHECARES, INC.", "fob": 1334484.8099999996, "pct": 0.24977286553756434, "qty": 43413400, "shipment_count": 55, "avg_unit_price": 0.030739007080763072, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2013, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.966831129025941, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.1165733278369723, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.966831129025941, "supplier_delta": -0.966831129025941, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.966831129025941, "2011": 0.7483641150285072, "2012": 0.06923446166351913, "2013": 0.1165733278369723, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "GUILIN HBM HEALTHECARES, INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 10, "supplier_market_share": 0.016574729800290226, "supplier_total_fob": 1334484.8099999996, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.16, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "bc93f718-91d8-4586-8002-ad78761d0472" ], "aliases": [ "GUILIN HBM HEALTHECARES, INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.24977286553756434, "total_fob": 1334484.8099999996, "label": "GUILIN HBM", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-3", "tokens": [ "HBM", "PIAOAN", "DRESSINGS" ], "primary_name": "HBM (PIAOAN) MEDICAL DRESSINGS, INC", "members": [ { "entity_id": "47237cd7-04ec-4f8b-ad39-75099731ef4b", "name": "HBM (PIAOAN) MEDICAL DRESSINGS, INC", "fob": 24192, "pct": 0.004527968484770358, "qty": 813000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.029756457564575647, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2011, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2011, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.04122387186628197, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.04122387186628197, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.04122387186628197, "supplier_delta": -0.04122387186628197, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0.04122387186628197, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "HBM (PIAOAN) MEDICAL DRESSINGS, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 101, "supplier_market_share": 0.0003004724072720028, "supplier_total_fob": 24192, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.05, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "47237cd7-04ec-4f8b-ad39-75099731ef4b" ], "aliases": [ "HBM (PIAOAN) MEDICAL DRESSINGS, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.004527968484770358, "total_fob": 24192, "label": "HBM PIAOAN", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "WUZHOU" ], "primary_name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530", "name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "fob": 3984116.5600000005, "pct": 0.7456991659776658, "qty": 142931880, "shipment_count": 158, "avg_unit_price": 0.027874233236140186, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.03316887097405882, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.9668311290259411, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.03316887097405882, "2011": 0.2104120131052106, "2012": 0.9307655383364809, "2013": 0.8834266721630276, "2014": 1, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 4, "supplier_market_share": 0.07310524781832103, "supplier_total_fob": 5885938.650000001, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 5604.45242627521, "competitive_index": 5.35, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530" ], "aliases": [ "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7456991659776658, "total_fob": 3984116.5600000005, "label": "WUZHOU", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 100.0%。 其中 WUZHOU 占比最高，约 74.6%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "WUZHOU", "group_share": 0.7456991659776658, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "bc93f718-91d8-4586-8002-ad78761d0472": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "GUILIN HBM", "group_share": 0.24977286553756434, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "47237cd7-04ec-4f8b-ad39-75099731ef4b": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "HBM PIAOAN", "group_share": 0.004527968484770358, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.2543008340223347, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 1358676.8099999996, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0984294430144554, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530", "total_share": 0.7456991659776658, "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7456991659776658, "account_shipment_count": 158, "account_annualized_shipments": 26.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 11.1, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.03316887097405882, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.03316887097405882, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.03316887097405882, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.9668311290259411 }, "group_label": "WUZHOU", "group_share": 0.7456991659776658, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2010年 3% → 2015年 100%（+97pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 75% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7456991659776658, "supplier_count": 3, "top_supplier_sample_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.03316887097405882, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.9668311290259411 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打二供 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "补位窗口 + 临时产能", "resource_boundary": "主供 WENZHOU WUZHOU IMPORT AND EXPORT CO., LTD. 还很强，但客户自己的增量有限，别重仓硬打。", "matrix_mode": "project_overflow", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 1, "annualized_fob": 890465.5616666662, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 214, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 6184.742329972315, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7456991659776658, "top1_first_year_share": 0.03316887097405882, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.03316887097405882, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2014, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.4303713715280762, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.15763577541652085, "cagr_fob": -0.03372669224314728, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.2543008340223347, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0984294430144554, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 1402827.79, "latest_year_fob": 603736.92 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2010年 3% → 2015年 100%（+97pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 43%", "高度集中（HHI 6,185 · Top1 75%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "d5ed8386-b72b-4bf7-b89c-5243a3747530": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7456991659776658, "account_shipment_count": 158, "account_annualized_shipments": 26.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 11.1, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.03316887097405882, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.9668311290259411, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.03316887097405882, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.03316887097405882, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.9668311290259411 }, "group_label": "WUZHOU", "group_share": 0.7456991659776658, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2010年 3% → 2015年 100%（+97pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 75% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "bc93f718-91d8-4586-8002-ad78761d0472": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.24977286553756434, "account_shipment_count": 55, "account_annualized_shipments": 13.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 26.43, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.966831129025941, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.966831129025941, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.966831129025941, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.966831129025941, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.966831129025941, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.966831129025941, "last_active_share": 0.1165733278369723, "last_active_year_share": 0.1165733278369723, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.966831129025941, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.966831129025941 }, "group_label": "GUILIN HBM", "group_share": 0.24977286553756434, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2010年 97% → 2015年 0%（-97pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 25% · 已退出当前样本" }, "47237cd7-04ec-4f8b-ad39-75099731ef4b": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.004527968484770358, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.04122387186628197, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.04122387186628197, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.04122387186628197, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2011, "first_active_share": 0.04122387186628197, "last_active_share": 0.04122387186628197, "last_active_year_share": 0.04122387186628197, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.04122387186628197, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.04122387186628197 }, "group_label": "HBM PIAOAN", "group_share": 0.004527968484770358, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2011年 4% → 2015年 0%（-4pp）；2011 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 214, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.8261557045358459, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 214, "fob_total_usd": 5342793.370000003, "fob_share": 1.0000000000000004, "min_unit_price": 0.021071587655106586, "max_unit_price": 0.03848, "avg_unit_price": 0.028780652204015142, "median_unit_price": 0.028342392425542078 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }