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0.43157419796635227, "total_fob": 48313.7, "label": "LIEBEL FLARSHEIM", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0.37621276595364567, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 与 importer 明显同集团/同品牌的关联供应体系合计占 37.6%。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 62.4%。 其中 LIEBEL FLARSHEIM 占比最高，约 43.2%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "a630a50a-a5de-434e-9a5f-10da81bb18b0": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "LIEBEL FLARSHEIM", "group_share": 0.43157419796635227, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "defac0cc-b65c-431d-8f6f-71a7617315d3": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT", "group_share": 0.37621276595364567, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": true }, "5c6b56c8-b11e-4335-b3ff-f58dbc340e5c": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT PANAMA", "group_share": 0.19221303608000206, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.19221303608000206, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 21517.79, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 27.236064423212714, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "LIEBEL FLARSHEIM COMPANY LLC ,", "supplier_entity_id": "a630a50a-a5de-434e-9a5f-10da81bb18b0", "total_share": 0.43157419796635227, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.43157419796635227, "account_shipment_count": 11, "account_annualized_shipments": 11, "account_avg_gap_days": 9.6, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "peak_share": 0.7329627282633875, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.7329627282633875, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.7329627282633875, "last_active_share": 0.7329627282633875, "last_active_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7329627282633875, "to_share": 0.7329627282633875, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "LIEBEL FLARSHEIM", "group_share": 0.43157419796635227, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 43%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.43157419796635227, "supplier_count": 3, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0.37621276595364567 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7329627282633875, "to_share": 0.7329627282633875, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 37315.87, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 44, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 3647.38184855885, "top_supplier_pct": 0.43157419796635227, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2015, "top1_first_active_share": 0.7329627282633875, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "top1_peak_share": 0.7329627282633875, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.7329627282633875, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 7.862724876973138, "cagr_fob": 1.9770328982013514, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.19221303608000206, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 27.236064423212714, "peak_year": 2015, "peak_fob": 65915.63, "latest_year_fob": 65915.63 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2015年 73% → 2015年 73%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "中度集中（HHI 3,647 · Top1 43%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "a630a50a-a5de-434e-9a5f-10da81bb18b0": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.43157419796635227, "account_shipment_count": 11, "account_annualized_shipments": 11, "account_avg_gap_days": 9.6, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "peak_share": 0.7329627282633875, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.7329627282633875, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.7329627282633875, "last_active_share": 0.7329627282633875, "last_active_year_share": 0.7329627282633875, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7329627282633875, "to_share": 0.7329627282633875, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "LIEBEL FLARSHEIM", "group_share": 0.43157419796635227, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 43%" }, "defac0cc-b65c-431d-8f6f-71a7617315d3": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.37621276595364567, "account_shipment_count": 22, "account_annualized_shipments": null, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": null, "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0, "peak_share_year": null, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": null, "last_active_year": null, "first_active_share": 0, "last_active_share": 0, "last_active_year_share": 0, "active_year_count": 0, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0, "to_share": 0, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT", "group_share": 0.37621276595364567, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "累计份额 38%" }, "5c6b56c8-b11e-4335-b3ff-f58dbc340e5c": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.19221303608000206, "account_shipment_count": 11, "account_annualized_shipments": 5.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 29.7, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.382386317799231, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.48384591826106155, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.382386317799231, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.382386317799231, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.48384591826106155, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.382386317799231, "last_active_share": 0.48384591826106155, "last_active_year_share": 0.48384591826106155, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.48384591826106155, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.48384591826106155 }, "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT PANAMA", "group_share": 0.19221303608000206, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2014年 48% → 2015年 0%（-48pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 19% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 5.7, "legacy_priority_score": 7, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $37K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "4.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，关联供应偏高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "8.5 / 10", "detail": "growth 基础分 8.0，高增长+0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2015年 73% → 2015年 73%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "中度集中（HHI 3,647 · Top1 43%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$37K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+197.7%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2015 · $66K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "100%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2015年 73% → 2015年 73%（+0pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 19%" }, { "label": "新进入供应商", "value": "1 家" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "27.2x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2013, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 44, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 96.72571336966976, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $2.50–$3.91（FOB 占比 53%）；中价带 $3.91–$166.52（FOB 占比 17%）；高价带 $167.69–$241.35（FOB 占比 30%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 15, "fob_total_usd": 59428.72, "fob_share": 0.5308618915580242, "min_unit_price": 2.4952, "max_unit_price": 3.911677419354839, "avg_unit_price": 3.483431218317451, "median_unit_price": 3.568951111111111 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 15, "fob_total_usd": 19323.38, "fob_share": 0.17261092041178905, "min_unit_price": 3.911677419354839, "max_unit_price": 166.52, "avg_unit_price": 78.38977532002049, "median_unit_price": 71.64 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 14, "fob_total_usd": 33195.509999999995, "fob_share": 0.2965271880301865, "min_unit_price": 167.68941176470588, "max_unit_price": 241.35, "avg_unit_price": 207.6233050250403, "median_unit_price": 205.06541666666666 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }