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0.9624665201549537, "last_active_share": 0.8253629066995135, "last_active_year_share": 0.8253629066995135, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "ANHUI KANGDA", "group_share": 0.7426988102742963, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 74% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 217358.92499999996 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7426988102742963, "supplier_count": 5, "external_group_count": 5, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "resource_boundary": "窗口虽然大，但也容易卷，别拖太久才动作。", "matrix_mode": "rebuild", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9995501143251113, "annualized_fob": 217358.92499999996, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 36, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5848.934703984563, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7426988102742963, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9624665201549537, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9624665201549537, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2011, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9624665201549537, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9624665201549537, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.15220224562038245, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.8477977543796176, "cagr_fob": -0.313747069495811, "exited_supplier_count": 4, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.8406376917810022, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 347.7902932254803, "peak_year": 2010, "peak_fob": 316197.69999999995, "latest_year_fob": 48126 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 15%", "中度集中（HHI 5,849 · Top1 74%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "e408b669-b326-413c-86c4-a0761b85726e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7426988102742963, "account_shipment_count": 24, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 68.43, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.9624665201549537, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9624665201549537, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9624665201549537, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.9624665201549537, "last_active_share": 0.8253629066995135, "last_active_year_share": 0.8253629066995135, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "ANHUI KANGDA", "group_share": 0.7426988102742963, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 74% · 已退出当前样本" }, "1fa6d610-c200-4aac-abd8-00b408785c69": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.1593623082189977, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 98.4, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4449265858947956, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5550734141052044, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5550734141052044, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4449265858947956 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG WEIGAO", "group_share": 0.1593623082189977, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "二供这层通常最容易被挤，也最适合新供应商切进去。 2013年 56% → 2015年 100%（+44pp）。", "attack_focus": "优先判断它接的是备份单、补充规格，还是某个价格带的专门份额。", "entry_angle": "更适合先以第二供应商、备份位或补充型 SKU 的身份切进去。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 16%" }, "4672b541-9a06-48b0-bde6-9d5e9b149df5": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.08838884040916808, "account_shipment_count": 4, "account_annualized_shipments": 4, "account_avg_gap_days": 26.33, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.43355989491742974, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.43355989491742974, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.43355989491742974, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.43355989491742974, "last_active_share": 0.43355989491742974, "last_active_year_share": 0.43355989491742974, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.43355989491742974, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.43355989491742974 }, "group_label": "HEKANG", "group_share": 0.08838884040916808, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2012年 43% → 2015年 0%（-43pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 9% · 已退出当前样本" }, "84f17530-659a-464c-a29d-22aa81908633": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.009100155422649428, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.03753347984504632, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.03753347984504632, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.03753347984504632, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.03753347984504632, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.03753347984504632, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2010, "first_active_share": 0.03753347984504632, "last_active_share": 0.03753347984504632, "last_active_year_share": 0.03753347984504632, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.03753347984504632, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.03753347984504632 }, "group_label": "HUICHUN EQUIPMENT", "group_share": 0.009100155422649428, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2010年 4% → 2015年 0%（-4pp）；2010 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" }, "3e8fe551-3ea4-470b-be4b-abd916de667d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.00044988567488851304, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.0022067535338916944, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.0022067535338916944, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0022067535338916944, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.0022067535338916944, "last_active_share": 0.0022067535338916944, "last_active_year_share": 0.0022067535338916944, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.0022067535338916944, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.0022067535338916944 }, "group_label": "MEDAX", "group_share": 0.00044988567488851304, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 36, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 374.18367346938777, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.03（FOB 占比 15%）；中价带 $0.03–$0.03（FOB 占比 38%）；高价带 $0.03–$7.33（FOB 占比 46%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 199734.5, "fob_share": 0.153152594646543, "min_unit_price": 0.0196, "max_unit_price": 0.02623684210526316, "avg_unit_price": 0.024136330964004124, "median_unit_price": 0.02446859701492537 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 501254.73, "fob_share": 0.3843525403891283, "min_unit_price": 0.0264020618556701, "max_unit_price": 0.030778798109385552, "avg_unit_price": 0.02868071834122611, "median_unit_price": 0.02880593888663822 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 603164.3200000001, "fob_share": 0.4624948649643289, "min_unit_price": 0.03144478114478114, "max_unit_price": 7.3340000000000005, "avg_unit_price": 0.6451740871917973, "median_unit_price": 0.03842998327256274 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "立刻开发", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 4.5, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $217K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.5 / 10", "detail": "重建型窗口" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "2.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，集团内闭环高-2.0；Top1 偏高-0.5；外部窗口极少-0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 15%", "中度集中（HHI 5,849 · Top1 74%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$217K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-31.4%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2010 · $316K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "15%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "4 家 · 历史份额 84%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "347.8x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 36, "date_min": "2010-01-05", "date_max": "2015-01-09", "total_fob_usd": 1304153.5499999998, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 36, "fob_total_usd": 1304153.5499999998, "fob_share": 1 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 9 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:16.118Z" }