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"3d2694ef-0250-4187-8659-1a1544e61a04", "name": "SMITHS MEDICAL INTERNACIONAL LTDA", "fob": 1113221.58, "pct": 0.9506150779606674, "qty": 1895815, "shipment_count": 37, "avg_unit_price": 0.5871994788521032, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.8436498602622459, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -0.15635013973775413, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 0.2695586405790545, "2013": 0.41740585774058575, "2014": 0.6003941802463615, "2015": 0.8436498602622459 }, "canonical_name": "SMITHS MEDICAL INTERNACIONAL LTDA", "country": null, "supplier_rank": null, "supplier_market_share": 0.0035152946161004146, "supplier_total_fob": 1113221.58, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 0, "competitive_index": 4.05, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "3d2694ef-0250-4187-8659-1a1544e61a04", "1c644fba-107b-4a23-b1f6-06ccb77444d0" ], "aliases": [ "SMITHS MEDICAL INTERNACIONAL LTDA", "SMITHS MEDICAL ASD INC." ], "variant_count": 2 } ], "total_share": 0.9506150779606674, "total_fob": 1113221.58, "label": "SMITHS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 SMITHS 占比最高，约 95.1%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "3d2694ef-0250-4187-8659-1a1544e61a04": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.9506150779606674, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "82946deb-8270-4e8b-9891-c9ec1c934dcc": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "TERUMO LATIN", "group_share": 0.049384922039333146, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.9506150779606674, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 1113221.58, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 312.77766712389996, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SMITHS MEDICAL INTERNACIONAL LTDA", "supplier_entity_id": "3d2694ef-0250-4187-8659-1a1544e61a04", "total_share": 0.9506150779606674, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.9506150779606674, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 105.67, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.7304413594209455, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.7304413594209455, "last_active_share": 0.27217326221433624, "last_active_year_share": 0.27217326221433624, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7304413594209455, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.7304413594209455 }, "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.9506150779606674, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2012年 73% → 2015年 0%（-73pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 95% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 172289.49562316216 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9506150779606674, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7304413594209455, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.7304413594209455 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 195175.66499999992, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 48, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5169.319482911842, "top_supplier_pct": 0.652308336356038, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2012, "top1_first_active_share": 0.7304413594209455, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 0.7304413594209455, "top1_peak_share_year": 2012, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.9869054393305438, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.5892946661994984, "cagr_fob": 0.09708653590958116, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.9506150779606674, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 312.77766712389996, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 239000, "latest_year_fob": 235870.39999999997 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2012年 73% → 2015年 0%（-73pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 99%", "中度集中（HHI 5,169 · Top1 65%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "3d2694ef-0250-4187-8659-1a1544e61a04": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.9506150779606674, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 105.67, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.7304413594209455, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.7304413594209455, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.7304413594209455, "last_active_share": 0.27217326221433624, "last_active_year_share": 0.27217326221433624, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7304413594209455, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.7304413594209455 }, "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.9506150779606674, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2012年 73% → 2015年 0%（-73pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 95% · 已退出当前样本" }, "82946deb-8270-4e8b-9891-c9ec1c934dcc": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.049384922039333146, "account_shipment_count": 11, "account_annualized_shipments": 5.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 44.3, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.1563501397377543, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.1563501397377543, "peak_share": 0.1563501397377543, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.1563501397377543, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.028917582198451974, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.12743255753930233, "last_active_share": 0.1563501397377543, "last_active_year_share": 0.1563501397377543, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.12743255753930233, "to_share": 0.1563501397377543, "delta": 0.028917582198451974 }, "group_label": "TERUMO LATIN", "group_share": 0.049384922039333146, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 5%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 48, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 1281.8846153846155, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.52–$0.57（FOB 占比 34%）；中价带 $0.58–$0.61（FOB 占比 52%）；高价带 $0.62–$666.58（FOB 占比 14%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 16, "fob_total_usd": 392975.73, "fob_share": 0.3355743914078632, "min_unit_price": 0.52, "max_unit_price": 0.5748690476190477, "avg_unit_price": 0.5528178311800088, "median_unit_price": 0.5568939901960785 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 16, "fob_total_usd": 608532.46, "fob_share": 0.5196450933914668, "min_unit_price": 0.5755, "max_unit_price": 0.614446875, "avg_unit_price": 0.5843844365322395, "median_unit_price": 0.5808372093023255 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 16, "fob_total_usd": 169545.79999999996, "fob_share": 0.14478051520066973, "min_unit_price": 0.6150970930232558, "max_unit_price": 666.58, "avg_unit_price": 135.08447817565184, "median_unit_price": 129.39726470588235 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "先研究", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 6.4, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $195K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "growth 基础分 8.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2012年 73% → 2015年 0%（-73pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 99%", "中度集中（HHI 5,169 · Top1 65%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$195K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+9.7%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $239K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "99%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2012年 73% → 2015年 0%（-73pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 95%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "312.8x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 48, "date_min": "2010-02-12", "date_max": "2015-06-11", "total_fob_usd": 1171053.9900000002, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000", "9018319000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 37, "fob_total_usd": 1113221.58, "fob_share": 0.9506150779606668 }, { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 11, "fob_total_usd": 57832.40999999999, "fob_share": 0.04938492203933311 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 9 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T14:02:18.384Z" }