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"075fdcc5-7634-4966-8aa1-310a0a1d62e3": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "KMS COLON", "group_share": 0.8856138760045643, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "5c6b56c8-b11e-4335-b3ff-f58dbc340e5c": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT PANAMA", "group_share": 0.09055903100402715, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "6dcb3eb9-69b5-436f-982a-ad1a70f48b43": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "KMS MONTEVIDEO", "group_share": 0.012720883662823491, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "5c38743b-3d48-448d-8a7e-8dc41520f879": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT", "group_share": 0.007584486297358666, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "31069115-f99a-4915-b674-e230c78b98ea": { "group_id": "group-5", "group_label": "COVIDIEN", "group_share": 0.00235210744917308, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 4, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.9964782769687737, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 168707.24999999997, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 17.798557359694293, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "KMS COLON PANAMA S.A.", "supplier_entity_id": "075fdcc5-7634-4966-8aa1-310a0a1d62e3", "total_share": 0.8856138760045643, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.8856138760045643, "account_shipment_count": 78, "account_annualized_shipments": 19.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 15.22, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0.9343564822586223, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.9343564822586223, "last_active_share": 0.8096894772603651, "last_active_year_share": 0.8096894772603651, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "KMS COLON", "group_share": 0.8856138760045643, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2011年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 89% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 33860.698 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8856138760045643, "supplier_count": 5, "external_group_count": 5, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 33860.698, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 90, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7927.391211918363, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8856138760045643, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9343564822586223, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9343564822586223, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2011, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.004942972481364241, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.9823624845590909, "cagr_fob": -0.6355740020441206, "exited_supplier_count": 4, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.9964782769687737, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 17.798557359694293, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 80562.86000000002, "latest_year_fob": 398.22 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 0%", "高度集中（HHI 7,927 · Top1 89%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "075fdcc5-7634-4966-8aa1-310a0a1d62e3": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.8856138760045643, "account_shipment_count": 78, "account_annualized_shipments": 19.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 15.22, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0.9343564822586223, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9343564822586223, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.9343564822586223, "last_active_share": 0.8096894772603651, "last_active_year_share": 0.8096894772603651, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "KMS COLON", "group_share": 0.8856138760045643, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2011年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 89% · 已退出当前样本" }, "5c6b56c8-b11e-4335-b3ff-f58dbc340e5c": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.09055903100402715, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 8, "account_avg_gap_days": 5.29, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.19031052273963456, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.19031052273963456, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.19031052273963456, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.19031052273963456, "last_active_share": 0.19031052273963456, "last_active_year_share": 0.19031052273963456, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 0.19031052273963456, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.19031052273963456 }, "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT PANAMA", "group_share": 0.09055903100402715, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2013年 19% → 2014年 0%（-19pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 9% · 已退出当前样本" }, "6dcb3eb9-69b5-436f-982a-ad1a70f48b43": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.012720883662823491, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.0650072049458467, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.0650072049458467, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0650072049458467, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.0650072049458467, "last_active_share": 0.0650072049458467, "last_active_year_share": 0.0650072049458467, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 0.0650072049458467, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.0650072049458467 }, "group_label": "KMS MONTEVIDEO", "group_share": 0.012720883662823491, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2012年 7% → 2014年 0%（-7pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" }, "5c38743b-3d48-448d-8a7e-8dc41520f879": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.007584486297358666, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0.06564351774137756, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.06564351774137756, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.06564351774137756, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.06564351774137756, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.06564351774137756, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2010, "first_active_share": 0.06564351774137756, "last_active_share": 0.06564351774137756, "last_active_year_share": 0.06564351774137756, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 0.06564351774137756, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.06564351774137756 }, "group_label": "MALLINCKRODT", "group_share": 0.007584486297358666, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2010年 7% → 2014年 0%（-7pp）；2010 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" }, "31069115-f99a-4915-b674-e230c78b98ea": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.00235210744917308, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "COVIDIEN", "group_share": 0.00235210744917308, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 到 2014 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 90, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 147.03800439094556, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $1.32–$2.88（FOB 占比 32%）；中价带 $2.90–$3.35（FOB 占比 45%）；高价带 $3.49–$194.22（FOB 占比 22%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 30, "fob_total_usd": 54698.170000000006, "fob_share": 0.32307762822845554, "min_unit_price": 1.3209, "max_unit_price": 2.878221052631579, "avg_unit_price": 2.5313482663287, "median_unit_price": 2.6900199999999996 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 30, "fob_total_usd": 76588.29999999999, "fob_share": 0.45237283649616455, "min_unit_price": 2.8977307692307694, "max_unit_price": 3.3516, "avg_unit_price": 3.098702905009344, "median_unit_price": 3.048323137254902 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 30, "fob_total_usd": 38017.020000000004, "fob_share": 0.22454953527538046, "min_unit_price": 3.4914, "max_unit_price": 194.2225, "avg_unit_price": 15.517091592592594, "median_unit_price": 3.9653 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 4.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $34K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 0%", "高度集中（HHI 7,927 · Top1 89%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$34K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-63.6%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $81K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "0%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2011年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "4 家 · 历史份额 100%" }, { "label": "新进入供应商", "value": "1 家" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "17.8x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 90, "date_min": "2010-01-18", "date_max": "2014-01-16", "total_fob_usd": 169303.4899999999, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 90, "fob_total_usd": 169303.4899999999, "fob_share": 1 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 6 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:58.281Z" }