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"last_active_year": 2011, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "ZHEJIANG YUSHENG", "group_share": 0.6404991747610599, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2011 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 64% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 20042.68 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6404991747610599, "supplier_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "resource_boundary": "窗口虽然大，但也容易卷，别拖太久才动作。", "matrix_mode": "rebuild", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.8543109005382514, "annualized_fob": 20042.68, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 6, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 4771.79960651395, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6404991747610599, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2011, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2011, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.227461806669928, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.772538193330072, "cagr_fob": -0.5230704384608478, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.8543109005382513, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 40718.69621800605, "peak_year": 2011, "peak_fob": 38511.96, "latest_year_fob": 8760 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 85%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 23%", "中度集中（HHI 4,772 · Top1 64%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "8eeb943e-f778-4374-ad47-0adc6e98d073": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.6404991747610599, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2011, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "ZHEJIANG YUSHENG", "group_share": 0.6404991747610599, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2011 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 64% · 已退出当前样本" }, "3f74dc69-af41-4ed1-8f25-bdc5dd7c17bd": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.21381172577719146, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "WUHAN FUXIN", "group_share": 0.21381172577719146, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2013年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 21% · 已退出当前样本" }, "dc36a75c-bd75-4d2c-82d2-0e03aa008e3b": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.14568909946174863, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "MEDTRONIC", "group_share": 0.14568909946174863, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "二供这层通常最容易被挤，也最适合新供应商切进去。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "优先判断它接的是备份单、补充规格，还是某个价格带的专门份额。", "entry_angle": "更适合先以第二供应商、备份位或补充型 SKU 的身份切进去。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 15%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "立刻开发", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 2.9, "legacy_priority_score": 5.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $20K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "重建型窗口" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 85%）", "主供退出 · 2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 23%", "中度集中（HHI 4,772 · Top1 64%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$20K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-52.3%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2011 · $39K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "23%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2011年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "2 家 · 历史份额 85%" }, { "label": "新进入供应商", "value": "1 家" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "40718.7x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2011, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 6, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 46104.359483965054, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.03–$0.04（FOB 占比 39%）；中价带 $0.04–$0.04（FOB 占比 46%）；高价带 $1460.00–$1460.00（FOB 占比 15%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 23434.64, "fob_share": 0.3897456161883873, "min_unit_price": 0.03166728735289736, "max_unit_price": 0.03677368421052631, "avg_unit_price": 0.034220485781711836, "median_unit_price": 0.034220485781711836 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 27933.4, "fob_share": 0.46456528434986405, "min_unit_price": 0.03677368421052631, "max_unit_price": 0.040044242514524056, "avg_unit_price": 0.03840896336252518, "median_unit_price": 0.03840896336252518 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 8760, "fob_share": 0.14568909946174863, "min_unit_price": 1460, "max_unit_price": 1460, "avg_unit_price": 1460, "median_unit_price": 1460 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }