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"2011": 0.3059324696650324, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.7139427098985941, "2015": 0.6505577347982491 }, "canonical_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 47, "supplier_market_share": 0.0016184189865183834, "supplier_total_fob": 160830.8, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.63, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71" ], "aliases": [ "MERIAL SELECT, INC." ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "fob": 131046.63, "pct": 0.44897829201798856, "qty": 12090, "shipment_count": 24, "avg_unit_price": 10.83925806451613, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.2755140462837597, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.34944226520175076, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.07392821891799106, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.2755140462837597, "2011": 0.6940675303349674, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 0.2860572901014058, "2015": 0.34944226520175076 }, "canonical_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 51, "supplier_market_share": 0.001372094688571413, "supplier_total_fob": 136352.26000000004, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9252.057637731574, "competitive_index": 3.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f" ], "aliases": [ "SOCOREX ISBA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 2, "raw_top_supplier_count": 2 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 7.17, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 45.38, "gap_cv": 1.09, "rhythm_label": "常规补货", "years_active": 6, "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": "2015", "avg_annual_fob": 48646.24, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 4.19, "p75": 4.56 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 54735.83, "latest_year_fob": 61968.520000000004, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 99690.52, "avg_annual_fob": 48646.238333333335, "median_annual_fob": 45523.175, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 1.1321381259770793, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.1321381259770793, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.6216089553951569, "peak_multiple": 2.1898850420692315, "cagr_fob": 0.025132218930945305 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MERIAL", "SELECT" ], "primary_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71", "name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "fob": 160830.8, "pct": 0.5510217079820114, "qty": 121666, "shipment_count": 19, "avg_unit_price": 1.321904229612217, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "supplier_delta": -0.07392821891799117, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.7244859537162402, "2011": 0.3059324696650324, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.7139427098985941, "2015": 0.6505577347982491 }, "canonical_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 47, "supplier_market_share": 0.0016184189865183834, "supplier_total_fob": 160830.8, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.63, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71" ], "aliases": [ "MERIAL SELECT, INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.5510217079820114, "total_fob": 160830.8, "label": "MERIAL SELECT", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "SOCOREX", "ISBA" ], "primary_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "fob": 131046.63, "pct": 0.44897829201798856, "qty": 12090, "shipment_count": 24, "avg_unit_price": 10.83925806451613, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.2755140462837597, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.34944226520175076, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.07392821891799106, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.2755140462837597, "2011": 0.6940675303349674, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 0.2860572901014058, "2015": 0.34944226520175076 }, "canonical_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 51, "supplier_market_share": 0.001372094688571413, "supplier_total_fob": 136352.26000000004, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9252.057637731574, "competitive_index": 3.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f" ], "aliases": [ "SOCOREX ISBA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.44897829201798856, "total_fob": 131046.63, "label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MERIAL", "SELECT" ], "primary_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71", "name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "fob": 160830.8, "pct": 0.5510217079820114, "qty": 121666, "shipment_count": 19, "avg_unit_price": 1.321904229612217, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "supplier_delta": -0.07392821891799117, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.7244859537162402, "2011": 0.3059324696650324, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.7139427098985941, "2015": 0.6505577347982491 }, "canonical_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 47, "supplier_market_share": 0.0016184189865183834, "supplier_total_fob": 160830.8, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.63, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71" ], "aliases": [ "MERIAL SELECT, INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.5510217079820114, "total_fob": 160830.8, "label": "MERIAL SELECT", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 MERIAL SELECT 占比最高，约 55.1%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "MERIAL SELECT", "group_share": 0.5510217079820114, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "group_share": 0.44897829201798856, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 9.049475030275163, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MERIAL SELECT, INC.", "supplier_entity_id": "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71", "total_share": 0.5510217079820114, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.5510217079820114, "account_shipment_count": 19, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 103.78, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "peak_share": 0.7244859537162402, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.7244859537162402, "last_active_share": 0.6505577347982491, "last_active_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7244859537162402, "to_share": 0.6505577347982491, "delta": -0.07392821891799117 }, "group_label": "MERIAL SELECT", "group_share": 0.5510217079820114, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 72% → 2015年 65%（-7pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 55%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 4581.222312583915 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5510217079820114, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7244859537162402, "to_share": 0.6505577347982491, "delta": -0.07392821891799117 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_stabilized", "label": "脉冲后稳升" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 48646.238333333335, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 43, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5052.064293708033, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5510217079820114, "top1_first_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.7244859537162402, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "top1_peak_share": 0.7244859537162402, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.6216089553951569, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.1321381259770793, "cagr_fob": 0.025132218930945305, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 9.049475030275163, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 99690.52, "latest_year_fob": 61968.520000000004 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 72% → 2015年 65%（-7pp）", "脉冲后稳升 · 末年/峰值 62%", "中度集中（HHI 5,052 · Top1 55%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "f0df3dbf-7915-47f8-b6ad-961185c7ad71": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.5510217079820114, "account_shipment_count": 19, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 103.78, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.7244859537162402, "latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "peak_share": 0.7244859537162402, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.07392821891799117, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.7244859537162402, "last_active_share": 0.6505577347982491, "last_active_year_share": 0.6505577347982491, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.7244859537162402, "to_share": 0.6505577347982491, "delta": -0.07392821891799117 }, "group_label": "MERIAL SELECT", "group_share": 0.5510217079820114, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 72% → 2015年 65%（-7pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 55%" }, "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.44897829201798856, "account_shipment_count": 24, "account_annualized_shipments": 4, "account_avg_gap_days": 82.61, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.2755140462837597, "latest_year_share": 0.34944226520175076, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.34944226520175076, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.07392821891799106, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.07392821891799106, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.6505577347982492, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.2755140462837597, "last_active_share": 0.34944226520175076, "last_active_year_share": 0.34944226520175076, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.34944226520175076, "delta": -0.6505577347982492 }, "group_label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "group_share": 0.44897829201798856, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供的盘子在往下掉，说明客户大概率在重新分这块采购。 2012年 100% → 2015年 35%（-65pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它丢掉的是哪些规格、价格带，还是交付环节出了问题。", "entry_angle": "先盯它正在松动的次核心 SKU 或补充需求，不要一上来谈全面替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 45% · 末年份额在回落" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 5.5, "legacy_priority_score": 5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $49K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "6.6 / 10", "detail": "pulse_stabilized 基础分 7.0，增速偏弱-0.4" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 72% → 2015年 65%（-7pp）", "脉冲后稳升 · 末年/峰值 62%", "中度集中（HHI 5,052 · Top1 55%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$49K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+2.5%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2014 · $100K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "62%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 72% → 2015年 65%（-7pp）" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "9.0x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 43, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 665.2265404090223, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.15–$1.81（FOB 占比 55%）；中价带 $2.06–$18.01（FOB 占比 25%）；高价带 $24.05–$101.16（FOB 占比 20%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 15, "fob_total_usd": 159784.16, "fob_share": 0.5474358192067128, "min_unit_price": 0.15206999999999998, "max_unit_price": 1.8111, "avg_unit_price": 1.0767515695767194, "median_unit_price": 1.2835386666666668 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 14, "fob_total_usd": 72523.8, "fob_share": 0.2484734773771305, "min_unit_price": 2.06325, "max_unit_price": 18.01408713692946, "avg_unit_price": 10.242846867692183, "median_unit_price": 8.57928008090813 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 14, "fob_total_usd": 59569.469999999994, "fob_share": 0.2040907034161565, "min_unit_price": 24.0492, "max_unit_price": 101.161, "avg_unit_price": 58.79430789473684, "median_unit_price": 56.432105263157894 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }