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0.02613818532277832, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 0.9982112107579525, "2013": 0.9994706126024455, "2014": 0.02613818532277832, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 14, "supplier_market_share": 0.014754924204002545, "supplier_total_fob": 1466274.3600000006, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3191.2711566496937, "competitive_index": 4.43, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a" ], "aliases": [ "MEDRAD, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7145058751863038, "total_fob": 707803.5599999997, "label": "MEDRAD", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "BAYER", "CARE" ], "primary_name": "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC", "members": [ { "entity_id": "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64", "name": "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC", "fob": 282377.03, "pct": 0.28505090727808613, "qty": 35400, "shipment_count": 20, "avg_unit_price": 7.976752259887006, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9738618146772217, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.02613818532277834, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.9738618146772217, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 30, "supplier_market_share": 0.0037080923094326705, "supplier_total_fob": 368492.62000000005, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 6238.817908886671, "competitive_index": 3.2, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64" ], "aliases": [ "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.28505090727808613, "total_fob": 282377.03, "label": "BAYER CARE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-3", "tokens": [ "CATALENT", "CTS", "EDINBURGH" ], "primary_name": "CATALENT CTS (EDINBURGH) LIMITED", "members": [ { "entity_id": "436e8c8c-c3c7-457c-9cd6-d5bc78c6e56e", "name": "CATALENT CTS (EDINBURGH) LIMITED", "fob": 254.06, "pct": 0.0002564657383890983, "qty": 2, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 127.03, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2013, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "supplier_delta": -0.0005293873975543912, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0.0005293873975543912, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "CATALENT CTS (EDINBURGH) LIMITED", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 246, "supplier_market_share": 0.000002556572047859369, "supplier_total_fob": 254.06, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 1.48, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "436e8c8c-c3c7-457c-9cd6-d5bc78c6e56e" ], "aliases": [ "CATALENT CTS (EDINBURGH) LIMITED" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.0002564657383890983, "total_fob": 254.06, "label": "CATALENT CTS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-4", "tokens": [ "FISHER", "CLINICAL" ], "primary_name": "FISHER CLINICAL SERVICES", "members": [ { "entity_id": "2edb07ad-08cc-4a37-a76f-4caf6d91fe90", "name": "FISHER CLINICAL SERVICES", "fob": 185, "pct": 0.00018675179722106266, "qty": 56, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 3.3035714285714284, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2012, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "supplier_delta": -0.0017887892420474542, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0.0017887892420474542, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "FISHER CLINICAL SERVICES", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 196, "supplier_market_share": 0.000019036630335270876, "supplier_total_fob": 1891.7700000000002, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 2789.8956336076117, "competitive_index": 2.56, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2edb07ad-08cc-4a37-a76f-4caf6d91fe90" ], "aliases": [ "FISHER CLINICAL SERVICES" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.00018675179722106266, "total_fob": 185, "label": "FISHER CLINICAL", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MEDRAD" ], "primary_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "members": [ { "entity_id": "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a", "name": "MEDRAD, INC", "fob": 707803.5599999997, "pct": 0.7145058751863038, "qty": 89250, "shipment_count": 63, "avg_unit_price": 7.930572100840333, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.02613818532277832, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 0.9982112107579525, "2013": 0.9994706126024455, "2014": 0.02613818532277832, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 14, "supplier_market_share": 0.014754924204002545, "supplier_total_fob": 1466274.3600000006, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3191.2711566496937, "competitive_index": 4.43, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a" ], "aliases": [ "MEDRAD, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7145058751863038, "total_fob": 707803.5599999997, "label": "MEDRAD", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 4, "total_group_count": 4, "summary_text": "表面上有 4 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 4 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 4 个，占 100.0%。 其中 MEDRAD 占比最高，约 71.5%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.7145058751863038, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "BAYER CARE", "group_share": 0.28505090727808613, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "436e8c8c-c3c7-457c-9cd6-d5bc78c6e56e": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "CATALENT CTS", "group_share": 0.0002564657383890983, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "2edb07ad-08cc-4a37-a76f-4caf6d91fe90": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "FISHER CLINICAL", "group_share": 0.00018675179722106266, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 3, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.714949092721914, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 708242.6199999998, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 38.45232432432433, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "supplier_entity_id": "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a", "total_share": 0.7145058751863038, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7145058751863038, "account_shipment_count": 63, "account_annualized_shipments": 12.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 23.23, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.02613818532277832, "last_active_year_share": 0.02613818532277832, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.7145058751863038, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 71% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 165103.27499999994 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7145058751863038, "supplier_count": 4, "external_group_count": 4, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 165103.27499999994, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 86, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5917.7276606671485, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7145058751863038, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.2151213802829345, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.977758935822004, "cagr_fob": 0.14613208677529976, "exited_supplier_count": 3, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.714949092721914, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 38.45232432432433, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 479913.19999999995, "latest_year_fob": 103239.59 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 22%", "中度集中（HHI 5,918 · Top1 71%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7145058751863038, "account_shipment_count": 63, "account_annualized_shipments": 12.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 23.23, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.02613818532277832, "last_active_year_share": 0.02613818532277832, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.7145058751863038, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 71% · 已退出当前样本" }, "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.28505090727808613, "account_shipment_count": 20, "account_annualized_shipments": 10, "account_avg_gap_days": 26.11, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.02613818532277834, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.9738618146772217, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.9738618146772217, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.02613818532277834 }, "group_label": "BAYER CARE", "group_share": 0.28505090727808613, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 29%" }, "436e8c8c-c3c7-457c-9cd6-d5bc78c6e56e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.0002564657383890983, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.0005293873975543912, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0005293873975543912, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "last_active_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "last_active_year_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.0005293873975543912, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.0005293873975543912 }, "group_label": "CATALENT CTS", "group_share": 0.0002564657383890983, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" }, "2edb07ad-08cc-4a37-a76f-4caf6d91fe90": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.00018675179722106266, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.0017887892420474542, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0017887892420474542, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "last_active_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "last_active_year_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.0017887892420474542, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.0017887892420474542 }, "group_label": "FISHER CLINICAL", "group_share": 0.00018675179722106266, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 86, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 45.16404287793097, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $2.81–$5.15（FOB 占比 23%）；中价带 $5.15–$10.66（FOB 占比 16%）；高价带 $10.71–$127.03（FOB 占比 61%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 29, "fob_total_usd": 227875.31999999998, "fob_share": 0.2300331110936473, "min_unit_price": 2.8126357142857144, "max_unit_price": 5.14534, "avg_unit_price": 4.56686142880826, "median_unit_price": 4.55892 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 29, "fob_total_usd": 158377.87, "fob_share": 0.15987757763537197, "min_unit_price": 5.145557894736842, "max_unit_price": 10.663780000000001, "avg_unit_price": 8.056532836449698, "median_unit_price": 6.8498 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 28, "fob_total_usd": 604366.4600000001, "fob_share": 0.6100893112709809, "min_unit_price": 10.71356857142857, "max_unit_price": 127.03, "avg_unit_price": 19.72937742608582, "median_unit_price": 10.984091666666668 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $165K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "4.5 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，Top1 偏高-0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.8 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，仍高于起点+0.3" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 22%", "中度集中（HHI 5,918 · Top1 71%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$165K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+14.6%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $480K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "22%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "3 家 · 历史份额 71%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "38.5x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 86, "date_min": "2010-02-03", "date_max": "2015-06-23", "total_fob_usd": 990619.6499999999, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000", "9018319000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 83, "fob_total_usd": 990180.5899999999, "fob_share": 0.9995567824643898 }, { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 439.06, "fob_share": 0.0004432175356101608 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 7 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:30.182Z" }