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"annualized_shipments": 3.67, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 71.4, "gap_cv": 1.08, "rhythm_label": "常规补货", "years_active": 3, "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": "2015", "avg_annual_fob": 180494.75, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1.58, "p75": 2.75 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 98197.8, "latest_year_fob": 315564.32, "peak_year": 2015, "peak_fob": 315564.32, "avg_annual_fob": 180494.74666666667, "median_annual_fob": 127722.12, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 3.2135579412166058, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.2135579412166058, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "peak_multiple": 2.4707100070058345, "cagr_fob": 0.7926399362997036 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "JIANGSU", "ZHIYU" ], "primary_name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2", "name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "fob": 463486.24, "pct": 0.8559551797851033, "qty": 17728400, "shipment_count": 10, "avg_unit_price": 0.026143715168881566, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -0.2471698955065642, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0.7528301044934358 }, "canonical_name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 25, "supplier_market_share": 0.004664000494967483, "supplier_total_fob": 463486.24, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2" ], "aliases": [ "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 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"supplier_total_fob": 77998, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.59, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "aa3accf4-58bf-4fae-bb3f-5ada04227d7f" ], "aliases": [ "BON VOYAGE LOGISTICS INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.14404482021489676, "total_fob": 77998, "label": "BON VOYAGE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "JIANGSU", "ZHIYU" ], "primary_name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2", "name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "fob": 463486.24, "pct": 0.8559551797851033, "qty": 17728400, "shipment_count": 10, "avg_unit_price": 0.026143715168881566, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -0.2471698955065642, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0.7528301044934358 }, "canonical_name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 25, "supplier_market_share": 0.004664000494967483, "supplier_total_fob": 463486.24, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2" ], "aliases": [ "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.8559551797851033, "total_fob": 463486.24, "label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 JIANGSU ZHIYU 占比最高，约 85.6%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "group_share": 0.8559551797851033, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "aa3accf4-58bf-4fae-bb3f-5ada04227d7f": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "BON VOYAGE", "group_share": 0.14404482021489676, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.1339755796289415, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "JIANGSU ZHIYU MEDICAL INSTRUMENT CO., LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2", "total_share": 0.8559551797851033, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.8559551797851033, "account_shipment_count": 10, "account_annualized_shipments": 3.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 79.33, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.7528301044934358, "last_active_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "group_share": 0.8559551797851033, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 86% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 77997.99999999999 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8559551797851033, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "window_open", "scenario_label": "窗口型", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打流失份额 / 二供窗口", "advantage_focus": "流失份额 + 替代规格", "resource_boundary": "优先去接正在松动的那一块，别一口气谈全面替代。", "matrix_mode": "share_shift", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 1, "annualized_fob": 180494.74666666667, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 11, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7534.081800316905, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8559551797851033, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.2135579412166058, "cagr_fob": 0.7926399362997036, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.1339755796289415, "peak_year": 2015, "peak_fob": 315564.32, "latest_year_fob": 315564.32 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "高度集中（HHI 7,534 · Top1 86%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.8559551797851033, "account_shipment_count": 10, "account_annualized_shipments": 3.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 79.33, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.7528301044934358, "last_active_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "group_share": 0.8559551797851033, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 86% · 末年份额在回落" }, "aa3accf4-58bf-4fae-bb3f-5ada04227d7f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.14404482021489676, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "peak_share": 0.24716989550656424, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.24716989550656424, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.24716989550656424, "last_active_share": 0.24716989550656424, "last_active_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.24716989550656424, "to_share": 0.24716989550656424, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "BON VOYAGE", "group_share": 0.14404482021489676, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "二供这层通常最容易被挤，也最适合新供应商切进去。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "优先判断它接的是备份单、补充规格，还是某个价格带的专门份额。", "entry_angle": "更适合先以第二供应商、备份位或补充型 SKU 的身份切进去。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 14%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "window_open", "action_level": "立刻开发", "scenario_action_level": "立刻开发", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "entry_position": "打流失份额 / 二供窗口", "advantage_focus": "流失份额 + 替代规格", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 7, "legacy_priority_score": 7, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $180K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "9.0 / 10", "detail": "窗口型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "8.5 / 10", "detail": "growth 基础分 8.0，高增长+0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "窗口型", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "高度集中（HHI 7,534 · Top1 86%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$180K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+79.3%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2015 · $316K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "100%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）" }, { "label": "新进入供应商", "value": "1 家" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "1.1x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2013, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 11, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.4798139315297547, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 11, "fob_total_usd": 541484.24, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.01929281767955801, "max_unit_price": 0.0285497803806735, "avg_unit_price": 0.02548335762431676, "median_unit_price": 0.02721762863534676 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }