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"latest_year": "2014", "avg_annual_fob": 51989.25, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 8.4, "p75": 8.4 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 ], "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_fob": 33960.64, "latest_year_fob": 31731.199999999997, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 101430.4, "avg_annual_fob": 51989.24800000001, "median_annual_fob": 33960.64, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.934352238355932, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.06564776164406805, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.3128371770199072, "peak_multiple": 2.9867046086292834, "cagr_fob": -0.016832174709888847 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "FABRICA", "ENVASES", "FOSKO" ], "primary_name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d", "name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "fob": 259946.24000000002, "pct": 1, "qty": 2171200, "shipment_count": 42, "avg_unit_price": 0.11972468680913781, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 31, "supplier_market_share": 0.0036772789043235245, "supplier_total_fob": 365430.5300000001, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5893.312426458088, "competitive_index": 6, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d" ], "aliases": [ "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 259946.24000000002, "label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "FABRICA", "ENVASES", "FOSKO" ], "primary_name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d", "name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "fob": 259946.24000000002, "pct": 1, "qty": 2171200, "shipment_count": 42, "avg_unit_price": 0.11972468680913781, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 31, "supplier_market_share": 0.0036772789043235245, "supplier_total_fob": 365430.5300000001, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5893.312426458088, "competitive_index": 6, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d" ], "aliases": [ "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 259946.24000000002, "label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 1, "total_group_count": 1, "summary_text": "表面上有 1 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 1 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 1 个，占 100.0%。 其中 FABRICA ENVASES 占比最高，约 100.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "FABRICA DE ENVASES FOSKO S.A.", "supplier_entity_id": "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d", "total_share": 1, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 42, "account_annualized_shipments": 8.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 40.88, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "supplier_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "resource_boundary": "这类小体量封闭型优先快速筛掉；只有出现明确体系外窗口时，才值得继续投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 51989.24800000001, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 42, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 10000, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.3128371770199072, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.06564776164406805, "cagr_fob": -0.016832174709888847, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 101430.4, "latest_year_fob": 31731.199999999997 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 31%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 42, "account_annualized_shipments": 8.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 40.88, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "supply_structure_label": "单一锁定", "priority_score": 3.6, "legacy_priority_score": 5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $52K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "3.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 堡垒型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "4.0 / 10", "detail": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 31%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$52K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-1.7%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $101K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "31%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 42, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.2181818181818183, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.12。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 42, "fob_total_usd": 259946.24000000002, "fob_share": 1.0000000000000002, "min_unit_price": 0.11, "max_unit_price": 0.134, "avg_unit_price": 0.11975238095238107, "median_unit_price": 0.12 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }