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"avg_annual_fob": 10040.338, "median_annual_fob": 9225.619999999999, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.582850737903979, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.417149262096021, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.12886597938144329, "peak_multiple": 2.493126749204932, "cagr_fob": -0.12624567664227782 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MUNDO", "QUIMICA" ], "primary_name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd", "name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "fob": 50201.69, "pct": 1, "qty": 2101800, "shipment_count": 23, "avg_unit_price": 0.02388509372918451, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 81, "supplier_market_share": 0.0005051729410741605, "supplier_total_fob": 50201.69, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.09, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd" ], "aliases": [ "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 50201.69, "label": "MUNDO QUIMICA", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MUNDO", "QUIMICA" ], "primary_name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd", "name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "fob": 50201.69, "pct": 1, "qty": 2101800, "shipment_count": 23, "avg_unit_price": 0.02388509372918451, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 81, "supplier_market_share": 0.0005051729410741605, "supplier_total_fob": 50201.69, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.09, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd" ], "aliases": [ "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 50201.69, "label": "MUNDO QUIMICA", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 1, "total_group_count": 1, "summary_text": "表面上有 1 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 1 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 1 个，占 100.0%。 其中 MUNDO QUIMICA 占比最高，约 100.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "MUNDO QUIMICA", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MUNDO QUIMICA S.A.", "supplier_entity_id": "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd", "total_share": 1, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 63.14, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "MUNDO QUIMICA", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "supplier_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 10040.338, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 23, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 10000, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.12886597938144329, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.417149262096021, "cagr_fob": -0.12624567664227782, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 23000.640000000003, "latest_year_fob": 2964 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 13%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "42c97f84-de78-4aaa-9530-26819ee506cd": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 63.14, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "MUNDO QUIMICA", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "单一锁定", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 4, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $10K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 13%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$10K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-12.6%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $23K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "13%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 23, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.2239865495983562, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.02。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 50201.69000000002, "fob_share": 1.0000000000000002, "min_unit_price": 0.02017996031746032, "max_unit_price": 0.024700000000000003, "avg_unit_price": 0.023338253968253966, "median_unit_price": 0.024 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }