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false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_delta": -0.037860252606737116, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.037860252606737116, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 256, "supplier_market_share": 0.000001362512222625201, "supplier_total_fob": 135.4, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 1.59, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d" ], "aliases": [ "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "all_suppliers": [ { "entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "fob": 5305.63, "pct": 0.9751150057985345, "qty": 184, "shipment_count": 3, "avg_unit_price": 28.834945652173914, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.03786025260673709, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.9621397473932629, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 51, "supplier_market_share": 0.001372094688571413, "supplier_total_fob": 136352.26000000004, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9252.057637731574, "competitive_index": 3.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f" ], "aliases": [ "SOCOREX ISBA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d", "name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "fob": 135.4, "pct": 0.024884994201465532, "qty": 30, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 4.513333333333334, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_delta": -0.037860252606737116, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.037860252606737116, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 256, "supplier_market_share": 0.000001362512222625201, "supplier_total_fob": 135.4, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 1.59, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d" ], "aliases": [ "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 2, "raw_top_supplier_count": 2 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 2, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 122, "gap_cv": 1.29, "rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "years_active": 2, "first_year": 2014, "latest_year": "2015", "avg_annual_fob": 2720.52, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1.13, "p75": 1.38 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2014, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 3576.31, "latest_year_fob": 1864.72, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 3576.31, "avg_annual_fob": 2720.515, "median_annual_fob": 2720.515, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.5214089382631819, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.4785910617368181, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.5214089382631819, "peak_multiple": 1.314570954396502, "cagr_fob": -0.4785910617368181 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SOCOREX", "ISBA" ], "primary_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "fob": 5305.63, "pct": 0.9751150057985345, "qty": 184, "shipment_count": 3, "avg_unit_price": 28.834945652173914, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.03786025260673709, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.9621397473932629, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 51, "supplier_market_share": 0.001372094688571413, "supplier_total_fob": 136352.26000000004, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9252.057637731574, "competitive_index": 3.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f" ], "aliases": [ "SOCOREX ISBA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.9751150057985345, "total_fob": 5305.63, "label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "AIR", "TITE" ], "primary_name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d", "name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "fob": 135.4, "pct": 0.024884994201465532, "qty": 30, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 4.513333333333334, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "supplier_delta": -0.037860252606737116, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.037860252606737116, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 256, "supplier_market_share": 0.000001362512222625201, "supplier_total_fob": 135.4, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 1.59, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d" ], "aliases": [ "AIR-TITE PRODUCTS CO., INC." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.024884994201465532, "total_fob": 135.4, "label": "AIR TITE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SOCOREX", "ISBA" ], "primary_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "fob": 5305.63, "pct": 0.9751150057985345, "qty": 184, "shipment_count": 3, "avg_unit_price": 28.834945652173914, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.03786025260673709, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2014": 0.9621397473932629, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 51, "supplier_market_share": 0.001372094688571413, "supplier_total_fob": 136352.26000000004, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9252.057637731574, "competitive_index": 3.78, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f" ], "aliases": [ "SOCOREX ISBA S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.9751150057985345, "total_fob": 5305.63, "label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 SOCOREX ISBA 占比最高，约 97.5%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "group_share": 0.9751150057985345, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "AIR TITE", "group_share": 0.024884994201465532, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.024884994201465532, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 135.4, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 6.636361398325947, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SOCOREX ISBA S.A.", "supplier_entity_id": "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f", "total_share": 0.9751150057985345, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9751150057985345, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 172, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2014, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.9621397473932629, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.9621397473932629, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.03786025260673709 }, "group_label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "group_share": 0.9751150057985345, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2014年 96% → 2015年 100%（+4pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 98%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9751150057985345, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.9621397473932629, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.03786025260673709 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "insufficient_data", "scenario_label": "样本不足 · 待核验", "opportunity_type": "待核验型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先核验现状", "advantage_focus": "确认是否仍在采购 + 样本是否有效", "resource_boundary": "样本年数偏少或核心触发指标不足，别按正式开发账户投入节奏、样品和报价。", "matrix_mode": "insufficient_data", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 2720.515, "active_years": 2, "shipment_count": 4, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 9514.685374698829, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9751150057985345, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "top1_first_active_year": 2014, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9621397473932629, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.5214089382631819, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.4785910617368181, "cagr_fob": -0.4785910617368181, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.024884994201465532, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 6.636361398325947, "peak_year": 2014, "peak_fob": 3576.31, "latest_year_fob": 1864.72 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2014年 96% → 2015年 100%（+4pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 52%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,515 · Top1 98%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "51f643f1-10d3-4387-aff1-bdd22f369b2f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9751150057985345, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 172, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2014, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.9621397473932629, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.03786025260673709, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.9621397473932629, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.9621397473932629, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.03786025260673709 }, "group_label": "SOCOREX ISBA", "group_share": 0.9751150057985345, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2014年 96% → 2015年 100%（+4pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 98%" }, "4592b97a-a210-4ba9-8af5-7064b21c545d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.024884994201465532, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2014, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.037860252606737116, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.037860252606737116, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.037860252606737116, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.037860252606737116, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.037860252606737116, "last_active_share": 0.037860252606737116, "last_active_year_share": 0.037860252606737116, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.037860252606737116, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.037860252606737116 }, "group_label": "AIR TITE", "group_share": 0.024884994201465532, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 4% → 2015年 0%（-4pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 2% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "insufficient_data", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "待核验型", "entry_position": "先核验现状", "advantage_focus": "确认是否仍在采购 + 样本是否有效", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "supply_structure_label": "单一锁定", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 4, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $3K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "样本不足 · 待核验" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "样本不足 · 待核验", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2014年 96% → 2015年 100%（+4pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 52%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,515 · Top1 98%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$3K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-47.9%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2014 · $4K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "52%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2014年 96% → 2015年 100%（+4pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 2%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "6.6x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2014, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 4, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 13.771935007385524, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $13.85。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 4, "fob_total_usd": 5441.03, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 4.513333333333334, "max_unit_price": 62.157333333333334, "avg_unit_price": 23.592416666666665, "median_unit_price": 13.8495 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }