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"peak_multiple": 5.4683941718952385, "cagr_fob": 0.1259290773128996 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "HENGXIANG" ], "primary_name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af", "name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "fob": 2075485.2599999993, "pct": 0.5742707076833425, "qty": 73328800, "shipment_count": 79, "avg_unit_price": 0.028303821418051288, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.3277968979328771, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.6722031020671229, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0.3277968979328771, "2013": 0.6193396199512745, "2014": 0.4029596966967706, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 9, "supplier_market_share": 0.02135994416899057, "supplier_total_fob": 2474345.3699999996, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 7167.106675493201, "competitive_index": 5.99, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af" ], "aliases": [ "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.5742707076833425, "total_fob": 2075485.2599999993, "label": "HENGXIANG", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "WUXI", "YUSHOU", "APPLIANCES" ], "primary_name": "WUXI YUSHOU MEDICAL APPLIANCES CO LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "0fe3a9c4-73f9-4e55-89be-d6f838210a65", "name": "WUXI YUSHOU MEDICAL APPLIANCES CO LTD.", "fob": 1304345.64, "pct": 0.360902343265248, "qty": 47423400, "shipment_count": 26, "avg_unit_price": 0.027504262452713216, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.38066038004872516, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.5970403033032295, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.5970403033032295, "supplier_delta": -0.38066038004872516, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0, "2013": 0.38066038004872516, "2014": 0.5970403033032295, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "WUXI YUSHOU MEDICAL APPLIANCES CO LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 10, "supplier_market_share": 0.0205244800731092, "supplier_total_fob": 2377564.8400000003, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 4504.155268599391, "competitive_index": 5.14, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "0fe3a9c4-73f9-4e55-89be-d6f838210a65" ], "aliases": [ "WUXI YUSHOU MEDICAL APPLIANCES CO LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.360902343265248, "total_fob": 1304345.64, "label": "WUXI YUSHOU", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-3", "tokens": [ "SHANDONG", "WEIGAO", "POLYMER" ], "primary_name": "SHANDONG WEIGAO GROUP MEDICAL POLYMER CO., LTDA", "members": [ { "entity_id": "1fa6d610-c200-4aac-abd8-00b408785c69", "name": "SHANDONG WEIGAO GROUP MEDICAL POLYMER CO., LTDA", "fob": 234292.6, "pct": 0.064826949051409, "qty": 6864400, "shipment_count": 9, "avg_unit_price": 0.034131548278072375, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2012, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.6722031020671226, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.6722031020671226, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.6722031020671226, "supplier_delta": -0.6722031020671226, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0.6722031020671226, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG WEIGAO GROUP MEDICAL POLYMER CO., LTDA", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 16, "supplier_market_share": 0.01280699431531165, "supplier_total_fob": 1483567.88, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 2580.1619534389033, "competitive_index": 6.57, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1fa6d610-c200-4aac-abd8-00b408785c69" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG WEIGAO GROUP MEDICAL POLYMER CO., LTDA" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.064826949051409, "total_fob": 234292.6, "label": "SHANDONG WEIGAO", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "HENGXIANG" ], "primary_name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af", "name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "fob": 2075485.2599999993, "pct": 0.5742707076833425, "qty": 73328800, "shipment_count": 79, "avg_unit_price": 0.028303821418051288, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.3277968979328771, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.6722031020671229, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0.3277968979328771, "2013": 0.6193396199512745, "2014": 0.4029596966967706, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 9, "supplier_market_share": 0.02135994416899057, "supplier_total_fob": 2474345.3699999996, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 7167.106675493201, "competitive_index": 5.99, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af" ], "aliases": [ "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.5742707076833425, "total_fob": 2075485.2599999993, "label": "HENGXIANG", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 100.0%。 其中 HENGXIANG 占比最高，约 57.4%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "HENGXIANG", "group_share": 0.5742707076833425, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "0fe3a9c4-73f9-4e55-89be-d6f838210a65": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "WUXI YUSHOU", "group_share": 0.360902343265248, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "1fa6d610-c200-4aac-abd8-00b408785c69": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "SHANDONG WEIGAO", "group_share": 0.064826949051409, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.425729292316657, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 1538638.24, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.258028331539999, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af", "total_share": 0.5742707076833425, "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.5742707076833425, "account_shipment_count": 79, "account_annualized_shipments": 19.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 12.83, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.3277968979328771, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.3277968979328771, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3277968979328771, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.6722031020671229 }, "group_label": "HENGXIANG", "group_share": 0.5742707076833425, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2012年 33% → 2015年 100%（+67pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 57% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5742707076833425, "supplier_count": 3, "top_supplier_sample_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3277968979328771, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.6722031020671229 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "小切口补位 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "临时补位 + 低投入验证", "resource_boundary": "客户自身需求已明显收缩，即使主供 SUZHOU HENGXIANG IMPORT & EXPORT CO.,LTD. 还在扩张，也不要按持续开发账户来投资源。", "matrix_mode": "project_overflow", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999997, "annualized_fob": 903530.8750000002, "active_years": 4, "shipment_count": 114, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 4642.398804007879, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5742707076833425, "top1_first_year_share": 0.3277968979328771, "top1_first_active_year": 2012, "top1_first_active_share": 0.3277968979328771, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.06568004375062775, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.5242137901758045, "cagr_fob": 0.1259290773128996, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.425729292316657, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.258028331539999, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 2524855.2, "latest_year_fob": 165832.59999999998 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2012年 33% → 2015年 100%（+67pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 7%", "中度集中（HHI 4,642 · Top1 57%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "c64c7adc-161a-4d02-a3b4-925b079094af": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.5742707076833425, "account_shipment_count": 79, "account_annualized_shipments": 19.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 12.83, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.3277968979328771, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.6722031020671229, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.3277968979328771, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3277968979328771, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.6722031020671229 }, "group_label": "HENGXIANG", "group_share": 0.5742707076833425, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2012年 33% → 2015年 100%（+67pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 57% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "0fe3a9c4-73f9-4e55-89be-d6f838210a65": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.360902343265248, "account_shipment_count": 26, "account_annualized_shipments": 13, "account_avg_gap_days": 10.52, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.5970403033032295, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.38066038004872516, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.5970403033032295, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.38066038004872516, "last_active_share": 0.5970403033032295, "last_active_year_share": 0.5970403033032295, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5970403033032295, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.5970403033032295 }, "group_label": "WUXI YUSHOU", "group_share": 0.360902343265248, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2014年 60% → 2015年 0%（-60pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 36% · 已退出当前样本" }, "1fa6d610-c200-4aac-abd8-00b408785c69": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.064826949051409, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 9, "account_avg_gap_days": 19.38, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.6722031020671226, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.6722031020671226, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.6722031020671226, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.6722031020671226, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.6722031020671226, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.6722031020671226, "last_active_share": 0.6722031020671226, "last_active_year_share": 0.6722031020671226, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.6722031020671226, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.6722031020671226 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG WEIGAO", "group_share": 0.064826949051409, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2012年 67% → 2015年 0%（-67pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 6% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2012, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 114, "band_count": 2, "range_multiple": 3.356888533643366, "summary_text": "存在 2 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.03（FOB 占比 54%）；高价带 $0.03–$0.07（FOB 占比 46%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 57, "fob_total_usd": 1962764.92, "fob_share": 0.5430818620337687, "min_unit_price": 0.01966, "max_unit_price": 0.028391227238239756, "avg_unit_price": 0.02443154295728129, "median_unit_price": 0.02490882785124901 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 57, "fob_total_usd": 1651358.5800000005, "fob_share": 0.45691813796623215, "min_unit_price": 0.028391227238239756, "max_unit_price": 0.06599642857142858, "avg_unit_price": 0.03456239110107996, "median_unit_price": 0.0325 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }