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"FLIER GLOBAL LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.9043751910344708, "total_fob": 997621.6000000001, "label": "FLIER", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 FLIER 占比最高，约 90.4%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "8517114e-ecc7-4ccc-b11c-a6a8efbcf62a": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "FLIER", "group_share": 0.9043751910344708, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "group_share": 0.09562480896552912, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0658770998178047, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "FLIER GLOBAL LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "8517114e-ecc7-4ccc-b11c-a6a8efbcf62a", "total_share": 0.9043751910344708, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9043751910344708, "account_shipment_count": 64, "account_annualized_shipments": 12.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 25.33, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.8204884502390035, "last_active_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.8204884502390035, "delta": -0.17951154976099648 }, "group_label": "FLIER", "group_share": 0.9043751910344708, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2010年 100% → 2014年 82%（-18pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 90% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 39604.04957287666 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9043751910344708, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.8204884502390035, "delta": -0.17951154976099648 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "limited_window", "scenario_label": "壁垒松动 · 增量有限", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "小切口验证 / 流失份额", "advantage_focus": "小切口验证 + 流失份额", "resource_boundary": "窗口存在，但客户自己的增量有限，不宜重仓。", "matrix_mode": "limited_window", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9043751910344708, "annualized_fob": 220621.178, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 70, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 8270.385902483296, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9043751910344708, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.4782861058520772, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.5005709325639396, "cagr_fob": 0.25750521450478314, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0658770998178047, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 427645.07999999996, "latest_year_fob": 204536.7 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 90%）", "主供回落 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 82%（-18pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 48%", "高度集中（HHI 8,270 · Top1 90%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "8517114e-ecc7-4ccc-b11c-a6a8efbcf62a": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9043751910344708, "account_shipment_count": 64, "account_annualized_shipments": 12.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 25.33, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.17951154976099648, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.8204884502390035, "last_active_year_share": 0.8204884502390035, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.8204884502390035, "delta": -0.17951154976099648 }, "group_label": "FLIER", "group_share": 0.9043751910344708, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2010年 100% → 2014年 82%（-18pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 90% · 末年份额在回落" }, "06ef1c84-02f3-442c-8120-820d2278830d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.09562480896552912, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 87.2, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.17951154976099643, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.17951154976099643, "peak_share": 0.17951154976099643, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.17951154976099643, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.15780291831948434, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.021708631441512083, "last_active_share": 0.17951154976099643, "last_active_year_share": 0.17951154976099643, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 0.021708631441512083, "to_share": 0.17951154976099643, "delta": 0.15780291831948434 }, "group_label": "FABRICA ENVASES", "group_share": 0.09562480896552912, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像试单或探索关系，可以拿来判断客户到底在试什么。 2012年 2% → 2014年 18%（+16pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小份额是在试新规格、临时补货，还是在验证替代供应。", "entry_angle": "如果这是非中国试单，先判断客户愿不愿意把这种试单切到中国来源。", "entry_difficulty": "低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 10%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 70, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 9.692307692307693, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.03–$0.03（FOB 占比 12%）；中价带 $0.03–$0.09（FOB 占比 15%）；高价带 $0.09–$0.25（FOB 占比 73%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 24, "fob_total_usd": 134796, "fob_share": 0.1221967910986315, "min_unit_price": 0.026, "max_unit_price": 0.028, "avg_unit_price": 0.026666666666666682, "median_unit_price": 0.026 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 164281.44, "fob_share": 0.14892626491188438, "min_unit_price": 0.028, "max_unit_price": 0.0932748888888889, "avg_unit_price": 0.04513870551437031, "median_unit_price": 0.041 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 804028.4500000001, "fob_share": 0.7288769439894841, "min_unit_price": 0.0932748888888889, "max_unit_price": 0.252, "avg_unit_price": 0.19308305071797952, "median_unit_price": 0.21175 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "limited_window", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "先研究", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "entry_position": "小切口验证 / 流失份额", "advantage_focus": "小切口验证 + 流失份额", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 5.1, "legacy_priority_score": 8, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $221K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.5 / 10", "detail": "壁垒松动 · 增量有限" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，集团内闭环高-2.0；Top1 过高-1.0；外部窗口极少-0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "5.2 / 10", "detail": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，长期 CAGR 为正+0.8；末年仍保留部分底盘+0.4" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "壁垒松动 · 增量有限", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 90%）", "主供回落 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 82%（-18pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 48%", "高度集中（HHI 8,270 · Top1 90%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$221K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+25.8%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $428K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "48%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2014年 82%（-18pp）" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "1.1x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 70, "date_min": "2010-01-26", "date_max": "2014-06-10", "total_fob_usd": 1103105.8900000001, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 70, "fob_total_usd": 1103105.8900000001, "fob_share": 1 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 5 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:25.263Z" }