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"exited_supplier_share_total": 0.04888240279378564, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 23099.180000000004, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 242.74528440155092, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MED-LINE.VET-LINE.TEC-LINE HENKE SASS WOLF", "supplier_entity_id": "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653", "total_share": 0.9157649694658246, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9157649694658246, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 255.5, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.19915019258171318, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.8008498074182868, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8008498074182868, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.19915019258171318 }, "group_label": "MED LINE", "group_share": 0.9157649694658246, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2011年 80% → 2015年 100%（+20pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 92% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9157649694658246, "supplier_count": 5, "external_group_count": 4, "affiliated_share": 0.028303810135531383 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8008498074182868, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.19915019258171318 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "resource_boundary": "这类小体量封闭型优先快速筛掉；只有出现明确体系外窗口时，才值得继续投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 94509.184, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 23, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 8401.742030143398, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9157649694658246, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2011, "top1_first_active_share": 0.8008498074182868, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.19915019258171318, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 29.097832163265544, "cagr_fob": 1.3422530007817, "exited_supplier_count": 3, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.04888240279378564, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 242.74528440155092, "peak_year": 2015, "peak_fob": 419416, "latest_year_fob": 419416 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2011年 80% → 2015年 100%（+20pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "高度集中（HHI 8,402 · Top1 92%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9157649694658246, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 255.5, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.19915019258171318, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.8008498074182868, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8008498074182868, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.19915019258171318 }, "group_label": "MED LINE", "group_share": 0.9157649694658246, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2011年 80% → 2015年 100%（+20pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 92% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "195b42d7-4289-4ba1-ba51-6913a502c1fc": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.028303810135531383, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.75, "account_avg_gap_days": 283.33, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.3021695590053599, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.5751007185661713, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.3021695590053599, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.3021695590053599, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.5751007185661713, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.3021695590053599, "last_active_share": 0.5751007185661713, "last_active_year_share": 0.5751007185661713, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5751007185661713, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.5751007185661713 }, "group_label": "INTERVET", "group_share": 0.028303810135531383, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。 2014年 58% → 2015年 0%（-58pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 3% · 已退出当前样本" }, "97755a55-e19a-4153-8007-13810a96bb2e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.020611753456679937, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": null, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": null, "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0, "peak_share_year": null, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": null, "last_active_year": null, "first_active_share": 0, "last_active_share": 0, "last_active_year_share": 0, "active_year_count": 0, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0, "to_share": 0, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "LOHMANN ANIMAL", "group_share": 0.020611753456679937, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "累计份额 2%" }, "3a42909d-c416-423d-a9d5-e1f025322841": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.011276660689399243, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.382397243218379, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.382397243218379, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.382397243218379, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.382397243218379, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.382397243218379, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2010, "first_active_share": 0.382397243218379, "last_active_share": 0.382397243218379, "last_active_year_share": 0.382397243218379, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.382397243218379, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.382397243218379 }, "group_label": "FORLONG MAISEY", "group_share": 0.011276660689399243, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2010年 38% → 2015年 0%（-38pp）；2010 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" }, "576d9b6e-efd9-4e3c-857d-799c78f7e2af": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.009301931968855006, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.3154331977762613, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.3154331977762613, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.3154331977762613, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.3154331977762613, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3154331977762613, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2010, "first_active_share": 0.3154331977762613, "last_active_share": 0.3154331977762613, "last_active_year_share": 0.3154331977762613, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3154331977762613, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.3154331977762613 }, "group_label": "PHILLIPS PTY", "group_share": 0.009301931968855006, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2010年 32% → 2015年 0%（-32pp）；2010 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 23, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 841.6315049226441, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $3.56–$16.54（FOB 占比 4%）；中价带 $27.46–$53.00（FOB 占比 4%）；高价带 $53.50–$2992.00（FOB 占比 92%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 20625.21, "fob_share": 0.04364699625382439, "min_unit_price": 3.555, "max_unit_price": 16.54, "avg_unit_price": 10.938595238095235, "median_unit_price": 13.4 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 17365.489999999998, "fob_share": 0.03674878835055861, "min_unit_price": 27.457708333333333, "max_unit_price": 53, "avg_unit_price": 32.258046875000005, "median_unit_price": 29.535312500000003 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 7, "fob_total_usd": 434555.22, "fob_share": 0.919604215395617, "min_unit_price": 53.5, "max_unit_price": 2992, "avg_unit_price": 1321.8015204357048, "median_unit_price": 91.64157894736843 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 4.6, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $95K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "3.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 堡垒型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "8.5 / 10", "detail": "growth 基础分 8.0，高增长+0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2011年 80% → 2015年 100%（+20pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "高度集中（HHI 8,402 · Top1 92%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$95K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+134.2%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2015 · $419K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "100%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2011年 80% → 2015年 100%（+20pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "3 家 · 历史份额 5%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "242.7x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 23, "date_min": "2010-03-16", "date_max": "2015-06-03", "total_fob_usd": 472545.92, "hs_codes": [ "9018319000", "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 21, "fob_total_usd": 463828.56, "fob_share": 0.9815523536844842 }, { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 8717.36, "fob_share": 0.01844764631551575 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 8 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T14:02:38.214Z" }