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"supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.4838809819445763, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.45437873257829287, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.4838809819445763, "supplier_delta": -0.02950224936628343, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.4838809819445763, "2015": 0.45437873257829287 }, "canonical_name": "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 30, "supplier_market_share": 0.0037080923094326705, "supplier_total_fob": 368492.62000000005, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 6238.817908886671, "competitive_index": 3.2, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64" ], "aliases": [ "BAYER MEDICAL CARE, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.22726833988885767, "total_fob": 68258.83, "label": "BAYER CARE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-3", "tokens": [ "MEDATLAS" ], "primary_name": "MEDATLAS SAS", "members": [ { "entity_id": "ab7bd911-c99c-412b-9bf8-24a76036ae5f", "name": "MEDATLAS SAS", "fob": 62692.61999999998, "pct": 0.208735597587638, "qty": 9696, "shipment_count": 20, "avg_unit_price": 6.465823019801978, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 4, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.1055719092425319, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.2981563110336139, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.2981563110336139, "supplier_delta": 0.192584401791082, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0.1055719092425319, "2013": 0.24418441376082378, "2014": 0.2034844898575132, "2015": 0.2981563110336139 }, "canonical_name": "MEDATLAS SAS", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 43, "supplier_market_share": 0.0020340767865108414, "supplier_total_fob": 202136.9, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5720.865692143897, "competitive_index": 4.4, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "ab7bd911-c99c-412b-9bf8-24a76036ae5f" ], "aliases": [ "MEDATLAS SAS" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.208735597587638, "total_fob": 62692.61999999998, "label": "MEDATLAS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-4", "tokens": [ "MEDICOR" ], "primary_name": "MEDICOR EUROPE AG", "members": [ { "entity_id": "56859884-c8dc-4f32-a6de-a86c48afe1a6", "name": "MEDICOR EUROPE AG", "fob": 34851.64, "pct": 0.11603882406428746, "qty": 5969, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 5.838773663930306, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2014, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.24286914404117838, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.2474649563880933, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.2474649563880933, "supplier_delta": 0.004595812346914918, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.24286914404117838, "2015": 0.2474649563880933 }, "canonical_name": "MEDICOR EUROPE AG", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 60, "supplier_market_share": 0.000931511468342057, "supplier_total_fob": 92569.19, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5305.080224106676, "competitive_index": 3.6, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "56859884-c8dc-4f32-a6de-a86c48afe1a6" ], "aliases": [ "MEDICOR EUROPE AG" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.11603882406428746, "total_fob": 34851.64, "label": "MEDICOR", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "MEDRAD" ], "primary_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "members": [ { "entity_id": "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a", "name": "MEDRAD, INC", "fob": 134541.56, "pct": 0.4479572384592167, "qty": 86254, "shipment_count": 23, "avg_unit_price": 1.559829804994551, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.06976538415673224, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 0.8944280907574681, "2013": 0.7558155862391762, "2014": 0.06976538415673224, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 14, "supplier_market_share": 0.014754924204002545, "supplier_total_fob": 1466274.3600000006, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3191.2711566496937, "competitive_index": 4.43, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a" ], "aliases": [ "MEDRAD, INC" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.4479572384592167, "total_fob": 134541.56, "label": "MEDRAD", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 4, "total_group_count": 4, "summary_text": "表面上有 4 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 4 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 4 个，占 100.0%。 其中 MEDRAD 占比最高，约 44.8%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.4479572384592167, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "BAYER CARE", "group_share": 0.22726833988885767, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "ab7bd911-c99c-412b-9bf8-24a76036ae5f": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "MEDATLAS", "group_share": 0.208735597587638, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "56859884-c8dc-4f32-a6de-a86c48afe1a6": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "MEDICOR", "group_share": 0.11603882406428746, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.4479572384592167, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 134541.56, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 3.859048443804129, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MEDRAD, INC", "supplier_entity_id": "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a", "total_share": 0.4479572384592167, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.4479572384592167, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 61.05, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.06976538415673224, "last_active_year_share": 0.06976538415673224, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.4479572384592167, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 45% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 50057.44166666667 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.4479572384592167, "supplier_count": 4, "external_group_count": 4, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 50057.44166666667, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 57, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 3093.5214419433587, "top_supplier_pct": 0.4479572384592167, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.2650853417803673, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.001031208079471, "cagr_fob": 0.2458165683635043, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.4479572384592167, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 3.859048443804129, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 114943.69999999998, "latest_year_fob": 30469.89 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 27%", "中度集中（HHI 3,094 · Top1 45%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "16c89dc6-1c70-42ee-86fd-713a810f8e9a": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.4479572384592167, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 4.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 61.05, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.06976538415673224, "last_active_year_share": 0.06976538415673224, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "MEDRAD", "group_share": 0.4479572384592167, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 45% · 已退出当前样本" }, "78b7f643-3cac-425e-9c74-26e709b0fc64": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.22726833988885767, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 3.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 58.33, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.45437873257829287, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.45437873257829287, "peak_share": 0.4838809819445763, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.45437873257829287, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.02950224936628343, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.02950224936628343, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.4838809819445763, "last_active_share": 0.45437873257829287, "last_active_year_share": 0.45437873257829287, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4838809819445763, "to_share": 0.45437873257829287, "delta": -0.02950224936628343 }, "group_label": "BAYER CARE", "group_share": 0.22726833988885767, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 23%" }, "ab7bd911-c99c-412b-9bf8-24a76036ae5f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.208735597587638, "account_shipment_count": 20, "account_annualized_shipments": 5, "account_avg_gap_days": 65.37, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.2981563110336139, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.2981563110336139, "peak_share": 0.2981563110336139, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.2981563110336139, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.192584401791082, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.1055719092425319, "last_active_share": 0.2981563110336139, "last_active_year_share": 0.2981563110336139, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.1055719092425319, "to_share": 0.2981563110336139, "delta": 0.192584401791082 }, "group_label": "MEDATLAS", "group_share": 0.208735597587638, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2012年 11% → 2015年 30%（+19pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 21% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "56859884-c8dc-4f32-a6de-a86c48afe1a6": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.11603882406428746, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 3.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 61.67, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.2474649563880933, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.2474649563880933, "peak_share": 0.2474649563880933, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.2474649563880933, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.004595812346914918, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.24286914404117838, "last_active_share": 0.2474649563880933, "last_active_year_share": 0.2474649563880933, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.24286914404117838, "to_share": 0.2474649563880933, "delta": 0.004595812346914918 }, "group_label": "MEDICOR", "group_share": 0.11603882406428746, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 12%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 7, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $50K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.8 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，仍高于起点+0.3" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 27%", "中度集中（HHI 3,094 · Top1 45%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$50K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+24.6%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $115K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "27%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 45%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "3.9x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 57, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 3376.651796822237, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.08–$6.04（FOB 占比 35%）；中价带 $6.30–$8.25（FOB 占比 28%）；高价带 $8.51–$287.00（FOB 占比 37%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 19, "fob_total_usd": 104794.31000000001, "fob_share": 0.34891352318078583, "min_unit_price": 0.0849939577039275, "max_unit_price": 6.0386444444444445, "avg_unit_price": 3.5829871239026367, "median_unit_price": 4.292722222222222 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 19, "fob_total_usd": 83469.09000000001, "fob_share": 0.27791102654899963, "min_unit_price": 6.29567, "max_unit_price": 8.2476, "avg_unit_price": 7.373320248652321, "median_unit_price": 7.295566666666667 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 19, "fob_total_usd": 112081.25, "fob_share": 0.37317545027021454, "min_unit_price": 8.5053, "max_unit_price": 286.995, "avg_unit_price": 28.048642073934836, "median_unit_price": 14.201825 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }