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"supplier_first_year_share": 0.4897850538235923, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.4897850538235923, "supplier_delta": -0.2248176851056547, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0.4897850538235923, "2014": 0.2722571777580262, "2015": 0.2649673687179376 }, "canonical_name": "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 46, "supplier_market_share": 0.0017876069795037584, "supplier_total_fob": 177643.9, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9313.472980388351, "competitive_index": 4.3, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99" ], "aliases": [ "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.2752136077989165, "total_fob": 171320.97999999998, "label": "SGA SMART", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 5, "total_group_count": 5, "summary_text": "表面上有 5 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 5 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 5 个，占 87.6%。 其中 SGA SMART 占比最高，约 27.5%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.2752136077989165, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "dbe62d65-fa68-460c-bf40-72df0bcceadd": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "IMPORTACIONES UNIVERSO", "group_share": 0.22708968656077083, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "f0ea16bc-25e5-4f62-809c-f2937db8b8cb": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "KARGEL ADRIAN", "group_share": 0.19213099527334734, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "bd04236a-1c69-4a85-8fd8-8110c7d9bc51": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "DEMAPLAST", "group_share": 0.10166925608333534, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "8e6c452d-ea45-49cb-8bb9-94a7db7c94e9": { "group_id": "group-5", "group_label": "METALURGICA 2000", "group_share": 0.08015134412853551, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.2938002513566827, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 182891.2, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 309.93819944554724, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD", "supplier_entity_id": "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99", "total_share": 0.2752136077989165, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.2752136077989165, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 151, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "peak_share": 0.4897850538235923, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.2649673687179376, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.4897850538235923, "last_active_share": 0.2649673687179376, "last_active_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4897850538235923, "to_share": 0.2649673687179376, "delta": -0.2248176851056547 }, "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.2752136077989165, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2013年 49% → 2015年 26%（-22pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 28%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 23324.90414849792 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.2752136077989165, "supplier_count": 5, "external_group_count": 5, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "no_dominant", "raw_key": "no_dominant", "label": "无明显主供", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4897850538235923, "to_share": 0.2649673687179376, "delta": -0.2248176851056547 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "dispersed", "label": "分散型" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 103750.30833333335, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 60, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 1882.6331410418782, "top_supplier_pct": 0.2752136077989165, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 0.4897850538235923, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "top1_peak_share": 0.4897850538235923, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.2649673687179376, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.33282210815131114, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.6037817372669687, "cagr_fob": 0.09907936144757112, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.2938002513566827, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 309.93819944554724, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 252158.94000000006, "latest_year_fob": 83924.06999999999 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 49% → 2015年 26%（-22pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 33%", "分散型（HHI 1,883 · Top1 28%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.2752136077989165, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 151, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "peak_share": 0.4897850538235923, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.2649673687179376, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2248176851056547, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.4897850538235923, "last_active_share": 0.2649673687179376, "last_active_year_share": 0.2649673687179376, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4897850538235923, "to_share": 0.2649673687179376, "delta": -0.2248176851056547 }, "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.2752136077989165, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2013年 49% → 2015年 26%（-22pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 28%" }, "dbe62d65-fa68-460c-bf40-72df0bcceadd": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.22708968656077083, "account_shipment_count": 12, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 166.82, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.4354350543849035, "latest_year_share": 0.15768634671793208, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.15768634671793208, "peak_share": 0.6285731488221121, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2777487076669714, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2777487076669714, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.47088680210418005, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.4354350543849035, "last_active_share": 0.15768634671793208, "last_active_year_share": 0.15768634671793208, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.6285731488221121, "to_share": 0.15768634671793208, "delta": -0.47088680210418005 }, "group_label": "IMPORTACIONES UNIVERSO", "group_share": 0.22708968656077083, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2011年 63% → 2015年 16%（-47pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 23%" }, "f0ea16bc-25e5-4f62-809c-f2937db8b8cb": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.19213099527334734, "account_shipment_count": 13, "account_annualized_shipments": 3.25, "account_avg_gap_days": 92.17, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.07261767216025726, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.3638541267367673, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.07261767216025726, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.07261767216025726, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3638541267367673, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.07261767216025726, "last_active_share": 0.2886964864303442, "last_active_year_share": 0.2886964864303442, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3638541267367673, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.3638541267367673 }, "group_label": "KARGEL ADRIAN", "group_share": 0.19213099527334734, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2012年 36% → 2015年 0%（-36pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 19% · 已退出当前样本" }, "bd04236a-1c69-4a85-8fd8-8110c7d9bc51": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.10166925608333534, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 239.86, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.44837667015868493, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.44837667015868493, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.44837667015868493, "last_active_share": 0.07735823211471514, "last_active_year_share": 0.07735823211471514, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.44837667015868493, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.44837667015868493 }, "group_label": "DEMAPLAST", "group_share": 0.10166925608333534, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2010年 45% → 2015年 0%（-45pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 10% · 已退出当前样本" }, "8e6c452d-ea45-49cb-8bb9-94a7db7c94e9": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.08015134412853551, "account_shipment_count": 5, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 90, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.24707464735683105, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.24707464735683105, "peak_share": 0.3103462295650075, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.24707464735683105, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.06327158220817647, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.06327158220817647, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.3103462295650075, "last_active_share": 0.24707464735683105, "last_active_year_share": 0.24707464735683105, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3103462295650075, "to_share": 0.24707464735683105, "delta": -0.06327158220817647 }, "group_label": "METALURGICA 2000", "group_share": 0.08015134412853551, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 31% → 2015年 25%（-6pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 8%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 60, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 814.8558293869957, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.03–$2.87（FOB 占比 54%）；中价带 $2.93–$15.20（FOB 占比 27%）；高价带 $15.20–$26.87（FOB 占比 19%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 20, "fob_total_usd": 335497.98, "fob_share": 0.5389509766115553, "min_unit_price": 0.032973220640569394, "max_unit_price": 2.871892361111111, "avg_unit_price": 1.4630045019206475, "median_unit_price": 2.1951900494233936 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 20, "fob_total_usd": 166667.54, "fob_share": 0.26773822439242545, "min_unit_price": 2.9298222222222225, "max_unit_price": 15.2, "avg_unit_price": 6.554419133341261, "median_unit_price": 3.416052917382598 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 20, "fob_total_usd": 120336.33000000002, "fob_share": 0.19331079899601905, "min_unit_price": 15.2, "max_unit_price": 26.86842105263158, "avg_unit_price": 19.80762683768779, "median_unit_price": 17.99359756097561 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "分散竞争", "priority_score": 6.2, "legacy_priority_score": 6, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $104K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "7.5 / 10", "detail": "dispersed 基础分 7.0，外部集团较多+0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "4.8 / 10", "detail": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，长期 CAGR 为正+0.8" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 49% → 2015年 26%（-22pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 33%", "分散型（HHI 1,883 · Top1 28%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$104K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+9.9%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $252K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "33%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2013年 49% → 2015年 26%（-22pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "2 家 · 历史份额 29%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "309.9x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 60, "date_min": "2010-03-10", "date_max": "2015-06-27", "total_fob_usd": 622501.8500000001, "hs_codes": [ "9018319000", "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 57, "fob_total_usd": 581804.2600000001, "fob_share": 0.9346225396759865 }, { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 40697.59, "fob_share": 0.06537746032401348 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 16 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:33.160Z" }