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3.62, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "dc318524-9eeb-400b-b23e-b067b24b3d0d" ], "aliases": [ "IMV INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7792518127359928, "total_fob": 49010.17, "label": "IMV", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 100.0%。 其中 IMV 占比最高，约 77.9%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "dc318524-9eeb-400b-b23e-b067b24b3d0d": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "IMV", "group_share": 0.7792518127359928, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "3f15fef7-fd69-4188-8924-eff124a6e591": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "IMV TECHNOLOGIES", "group_share": 0.2196638210267835, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "b380abd9-f84f-4fd1-a8b7-b2bc6265a3d8": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "COBURN", "group_share": 0.0010843662372237173, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.7803361789732165, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 49078.369999999995, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.208149560117302, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "IMV INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION", "supplier_entity_id": "dc318524-9eeb-400b-b23e-b067b24b3d0d", "total_share": 0.7792518127359928, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7792518127359928, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 264.6, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "IMV", "group_share": 0.7792518127359928, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 78% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 12578.776 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7792518127359928, "supplier_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 12578.776, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 9, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 6554.86757770554, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7792518127359928, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.22150109730097878, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.5916866060110557, "cagr_fob": 0.12321886861705234, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.7803361789732165, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.208149560117302, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 38321.3, "latest_year_fob": 8488.21 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 22%", "高度集中（HHI 6,555 · Top1 78%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "dc318524-9eeb-400b-b23e-b067b24b3d0d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7792518127359928, "account_shipment_count": 6, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 264.6, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "IMV", "group_share": 0.7792518127359928, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 78% · 已退出当前样本" }, "3f15fef7-fd69-4188-8924-eff124a6e591": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.2196638210267835, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "IMV TECHNOLOGIES", "group_share": 0.2196638210267835, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 22%" }, "b380abd9-f84f-4fd1-a8b7-b2bc6265a3d8": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.0010843662372237173, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.012573213156521757, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.012573213156521757, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.012573213156521757, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2011, "first_active_share": 0.012573213156521757, "last_active_share": 0.012573213156521757, "last_active_year_share": 0.012573213156521757, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 0.012573213156521757, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.012573213156521757 }, "group_label": "COBURN", "group_share": 0.0010843662372237173, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2011 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 9, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.244605571847507, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $26.11。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 9, "fob_total_usd": 62893.88, "fob_share": 0.9999999999999999, "min_unit_price": 22.733333333333334, "max_unit_price": 28.29403333333333, "avg_unit_price": 25.614173148148147, "median_unit_price": 26.111066666666666 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $13K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "2.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.8 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，仍高于起点+0.3" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 22%", "高度集中（HHI 6,555 · Top1 78%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$13K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+12.3%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $38K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "22%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "2 家 · 历史份额 78%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "1.2x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 9, "date_min": "2010-04-26", "date_max": "2014-11-12", "total_fob_usd": 62893.880000000005, "hs_codes": [ "9018319000", "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 62825.68000000001, "fob_share": 0.9989156337627764 }, { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 1, "fob_total_usd": 68.2, "fob_share": 0.001084366237223717 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 3 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:52.730Z" }