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"supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.8525545885536207, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.14744541144637935, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0.8525545885536207, "2014": 0.9568357495585235, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "LABORATORIOS S.L S.A", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 98, "supplier_market_share": 0.00038408283709152235, "supplier_total_fob": 38168.329999999994, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 7177.12178788549, "competitive_index": 5.03, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "a49ae766-f348-4315-bc81-56f3968dcfe1" ], "aliases": [ "LABORATORIOS S.L S.A" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.693692429829688, "total_fob": 32190.270000000004, "label": "LABORATORIOS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 100.0%。 其中 LABORATORIOS 占比最高，约 69.4%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "a49ae766-f348-4315-bc81-56f3968dcfe1": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "LABORATORIOS", "group_share": 0.693692429829688, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "651d9b66-8226-4626-9ac4-8cceeee82b8e": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "TEKNIMED", "group_share": 0.2973299422638966, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "db89f955-ed18-4fdc-a1d7-3d6dcbe2ab90": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "EGGER OTOPLASTIK", "group_share": 0.00897762790641545, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.306307570170312, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 14213.97, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 5.526312244053533, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "LABORATORIOS S.L S.A", "supplier_entity_id": "a49ae766-f348-4315-bc81-56f3968dcfe1", "total_share": 0.693692429829688, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.693692429829688, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 7.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 39.32, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.14744541144637935, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.8525545885536207, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8525545885536207, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.14744541144637935 }, "group_label": "LABORATORIOS", "group_share": 0.693692429829688, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2013年 85% → 2015年 100%（+15pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 69% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.693692429829688, "supplier_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8525545885536207, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.14744541144637935 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 7734.04, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 50, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5696.948795724947, "top_supplier_pct": 0.693692429829688, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 0.8525545885536207, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.14744541144637935, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.40392440307546956, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.8692585609655117, "cagr_fob": 0.13327126146229218, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.306307570170312, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 5.526312244053533, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 15537.139999999998, "latest_year_fob": 6275.83 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2013年 85% → 2015年 100%（+15pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 40%", "中度集中（HHI 5,697 · Top1 69%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "a49ae766-f348-4315-bc81-56f3968dcfe1": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.693692429829688, "account_shipment_count": 23, "account_annualized_shipments": 7.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 39.32, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.14744541144637935, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.8525545885536207, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.8525545885536207, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.14744541144637935 }, "group_label": "LABORATORIOS", "group_share": 0.693692429829688, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2013年 85% → 2015年 100%（+15pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 69% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "651d9b66-8226-4626-9ac4-8cceeee82b8e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.2973299422638966, "account_shipment_count": 25, "account_annualized_shipments": 5, "account_avg_gap_days": 61.58, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.04316425044147659, "last_active_year_share": 0.04316425044147659, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "TEKNIMED", "group_share": 0.2973299422638966, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2010年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 30% · 已退出当前样本" }, "db89f955-ed18-4fdc-a1d7-3d6dcbe2ab90": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.00897762790641545, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.026813171536074213, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.026813171536074213, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.026813171536074213, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.026813171536074213, "last_active_share": 0.026813171536074213, "last_active_year_share": 0.026813171536074213, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.026813171536074213, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.026813171536074213 }, "group_label": "EGGER OTOPLASTIK", "group_share": 0.00897762790641545, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 1% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 4.7, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $8K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "4.8 / 10", "detail": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，长期 CAGR 为正+0.8" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2013年 85% → 2015年 100%（+15pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 40%", "中度集中（HHI 5,697 · Top1 69%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$8K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+13.3%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $16K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "40%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2013年 85% → 2015年 100%（+15pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "2 家 · 历史份额 31%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "5.5x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 50, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 151.25570776255708, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $2.19–$8.10（FOB 占比 26%）；中价带 $8.14–$10.23（FOB 占比 19%）；高价带 $10.23–$331.25（FOB 占比 54%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 17, "fob_total_usd": 12157.69, "fob_share": 0.26199524009012976, "min_unit_price": 2.19, "max_unit_price": 8.1013, "avg_unit_price": 6.072845261437908, "median_unit_price": 5.6634 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 17, "fob_total_usd": 9048.220000000001, "fob_share": 0.1949869236087048, "min_unit_price": 8.1418, "max_unit_price": 10.228066666666667, "avg_unit_price": 8.706515266106443, "median_unit_price": 8.467333333333334 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 16, "fob_total_usd": 25198.329999999998, "fob_share": 0.5430178363011656, "min_unit_price": 10.2308, "max_unit_price": 331.25, "avg_unit_price": 51.83900905906594, "median_unit_price": 10.550753846153846 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }