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"supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.4740067904228582, "supplier_status": "expanding", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0.5259932095771418, "2011": 0.9357673728983554, "2012": 0.6614515417799126, "2013": 1, "2014": 0, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "MED-LINE.VET-LINE.TEC-LINE HENKE SASS WOLF", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 24, "supplier_market_share": 0.004844217591691719, "supplier_total_fob": 481395.36, "supplier_importer_count": 3, "customer_hhi": 8175.050928398741, "competitive_index": 4.88, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653" ], "aliases": [ "MED-LINE.VET-LINE.TEC-LINE HENKE SASS WOLF" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.8460690237367597, "total_fob": 46704.11, "label": "MED LINE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 3, "summary_text": "表面上有 3 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 3 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 100.0%。 其中 MED LINE 占比最高，约 84.6%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "MED LINE", "group_share": 0.8460690237367597, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "ff8a05d0-d240-4c10-8b64-eb552c12c1d1": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "KMQ DBA", "group_share": 0.0927729962881309, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "6c8e5458-bb4a-4bae-acaa-de0674a989cb": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "NEOGEN", "group_share": 0.06115797997510928, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.15393097626324018, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 8497.19, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.456681470916045, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "MED-LINE.VET-LINE.TEC-LINE HENKE SASS WOLF", "supplier_entity_id": "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653", "total_share": 0.8460690237367597, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.8460690237367597, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 263.14, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.5259932095771418, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5259932095771418, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5259932095771418, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4740067904228582 }, "group_label": "MED LINE", "group_share": 0.8460690237367597, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 53% → 2015年 100%（+47pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 85%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8460690237367597, "supplier_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5259932095771418, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4740067904228582 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_stabilized", "label": "脉冲后稳升" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "resource_boundary": "这类小体量封闭型优先快速筛掉；只有出现明确体系外窗口时，才值得继续投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 9200.216666666667, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 12, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7281.799202817871, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8460690237367597, "top1_first_year_share": 0.5259932095771418, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.5259932095771418, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.5167708162443514, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.0556902861678203, "cagr_fob": 0.250321982323948, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.15393097626324018, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.456681470916045, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 18774.28, "latest_year_fob": 9702 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2010年 53% → 2015年 100%（+47pp）", "脉冲后稳升 · 末年/峰值 52%", "高度集中（HHI 7,282 · Top1 85%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "0fcf7231-a784-446d-95c0-cfcd5312f653": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.8460690237367597, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 263.14, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.5259932095771418, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4740067904228582, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5259932095771418, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5259932095771418, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4740067904228582 }, "group_label": "MED LINE", "group_share": 0.8460690237367597, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2010年 53% → 2015年 100%（+47pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 85%" }, "ff8a05d0-d240-4c10-8b64-eb552c12c1d1": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.0927729962881309, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": 361, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.47400679042285815, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.47400679042285815, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.47400679042285815, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.47400679042285815, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.47400679042285815, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 0.47400679042285815, "last_active_share": 0.33854845822008744, "last_active_year_share": 0.33854845822008744, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.47400679042285815, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.47400679042285815 }, "group_label": "KMQ DBA", "group_share": 0.0927729962881309, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2010年 47% → 2015年 0%（-47pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 9% · 已退出当前样本" }, "6c8e5458-bb4a-4bae-acaa-de0674a989cb": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.06115797997510928, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "NEOGEN", "group_share": 0.06115797997510928, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 6% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 4.1, "legacy_priority_score": 6.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $9K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "3.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 堡垒型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "2.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，无额外修正" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "7.5 / 10", "detail": "pulse_stabilized 基础分 7.0，增速强+0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2010年 53% → 2015年 100%（+47pp）", "脉冲后稳升 · 末年/峰值 52%", "高度集中（HHI 7,282 · Top1 85%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$9K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+25.0%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $19K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "52%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 53% → 2015年 100%（+47pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "2 家 · 历史份额 15%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "1.5x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 12, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.7398474541331683, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $12.08。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 12, "fob_total_usd": 55201.3, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 9.702, "max_unit_price": 16.88, "avg_unit_price": 12.83352611111111, "median_unit_price": 12.0819625 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }