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"last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 }, "group_label": "XUYI WEBEST", "group_share": 0.783802052636262, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 78% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.783802052636262, "supplier_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打二供 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "补位窗口 + 临时产能", "resource_boundary": "主供 XUYI WEBEST IMPORT & EXPORT CO., LTD 还很强，但客户自己的增量有限，别重仓硬打。", "matrix_mode": "project_overflow", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999999, "annualized_fob": 158911.74000000002, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 35, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 6610.872101611111, "top_supplier_pct": 0.783802052636262, "top1_first_year_share": 0.5368352990522488, "top1_first_active_year": 2011, "top1_first_active_share": 0.5368352990522488, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.1608949099434642, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.0428201782566817, "cagr_fob": 0.19552189632763128, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.21619794736373785, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0810450493968722, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 437103.19999999995, "latest_year_fob": 70327.68000000001 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 16%", "高度集中（HHI 6,611 · Top1 78%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "6c793d45-6f74-41cb-a31b-63ba5b03e154": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.783802052636262, "account_shipment_count": 27, "account_annualized_shipments": 5.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 50.23, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.5368352990522488, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5368352990522488, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 }, "group_label": "XUYI WEBEST", "group_share": 0.783802052636262, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 78% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "f73e815d-8845-4a5a-8945-d2c83d65d0c0": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.21619794736373785, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 138.29, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.4631647009477511, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.4631647009477511, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.4631647009477511, "last_active_share": 0.281180905782981, "last_active_year_share": 0.281180905782981, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4631647009477511, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.4631647009477511 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU KANGHUA", "group_share": 0.21619794736373785, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2011年 46% → 2015年 0%（-46pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 22% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2011, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 35, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.548562508576918, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 35, "fob_total_usd": 794558.7000000002, "fob_share": 1.0000000000000004, "min_unit_price": 0.02227872611464968, "max_unit_price": 0.0345, "avg_unit_price": 0.025979197179986233, "median_unit_price": 0.02546149641270926 } ] }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "entry_position": "打二供 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "补位窗口 + 临时产能", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "高度集中", "priority_score": 4.4, "legacy_priority_score": 7, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "10.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $159K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "4.0 / 10", "detail": "项目溢出型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "3.0 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，主供偏贸易商+0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.8 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，仍高于起点+0.3" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 16%", "高度集中（HHI 6,611 · Top1 78%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$159K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+19.6%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $437K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "16%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 22%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "1.1x" } ] }, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 35, "date_min": "2011-09-28", "date_max": "2015-05-06", "total_fob_usd": 794558.6999999998, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 35, "fob_total_usd": 794558.6999999998, "fob_share": 1 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 3 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-06T12:12:31.080Z" }