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"supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 23, "supplier_market_share": 0.006857506507083659, "supplier_total_fob": 681466.46, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3009.145971394813, "competitive_index": 7.33, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 1, "raw_top_supplier_count": 1 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 1.8, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 185.25, "gap_cv": 0.49, "rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "years_active": 5, "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": "2014", "avg_annual_fob": 49305.17, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1.8, "p75": 1.8 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 ], "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_fob": 26697, "latest_year_fob": 40799.7, "peak_year": 2012, "peak_fob": 60739.34, "avg_annual_fob": 49305.168000000005, "median_annual_fob": 59142.2, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 1.528250365209574, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.528250365209574, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.6717178685181631, "peak_multiple": 1.0270050826651698, "cagr_fob": 0.11185621256980727 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SHANDONG", "QIAOPAI" ], "primary_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8", "name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "fob": 246525.84000000003, "pct": 1, "qty": 8699420, "shipment_count": 9, "avg_unit_price": 0.028338192661119938, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 23, "supplier_market_share": 0.006857506507083659, "supplier_total_fob": 681466.46, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3009.145971394813, "competitive_index": 7.33, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 246525.84000000003, "label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SHANDONG", "QIAOPAI" ], "primary_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8", "name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "fob": 246525.84000000003, "pct": 1, "qty": 8699420, "shipment_count": 9, "avg_unit_price": 0.028338192661119938, "is_china": true, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 1, "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 23, "supplier_market_share": 0.006857506507083659, "supplier_total_fob": 681466.46, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3009.145971394813, "competitive_index": 7.33, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 246525.84000000003, "label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 1, "total_group_count": 1, "summary_text": "表面上有 1 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 1 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 1 个，占 100.0%。 其中 SHANDONG QIAOPAI 占比最高，约 100.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI GROUP CO., LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8", "total_share": 1, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 185.25, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "supplier_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_stabilized", "label": "脉冲后稳升" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "high_stable_growth_single_locked", "scenario_label": "常规账户", "opportunity_type": "份额争夺型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打二供 / 备份窗口", "advantage_focus": "产品线补齐 + 稳定交付", "resource_boundary": "别按空白新客户打法推进。", "matrix_mode": "default", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 1, "annualized_fob": 49305.168000000005, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 9, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 10000, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.6717178685181631, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.528250365209574, "cagr_fob": 0.11185621256980727, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2012, "peak_fob": 60739.34, "latest_year_fob": 40799.7 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 67%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 185.25, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 100%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "high_stable_growth_single_locked", "action_level": "先研究", "scenario_action_level": "先研究", "opportunity_type": "份额争夺型", "entry_position": "打二供 / 备份窗口", "advantage_focus": "产品线补齐 + 稳定交付", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "单一锁定", "priority_score": 4.9, "legacy_priority_score": 7, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $49K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "5.0 / 10", "detail": "常规账户" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.5 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，Top1 过高-1.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "7.0 / 10", "detail": "pulse_stabilized 基础分 7.0，无额外修正" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [], "scenario_label": "常规账户", "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 67%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$49K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+11.2%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2012 · $61K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "67%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2014年 100%（+0pp）" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2013, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2013年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 9, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 155.41637564563126, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.02（FOB 占比 27%）；中价带 $0.03–$0.03（FOB 占比 36%）；高价带 $0.03–$3.35（FOB 占比 36%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 67496.7, "fob_share": 0.27379158306488277, "min_unit_price": 0.02155246224556796, "max_unit_price": 0.023713803517498667, "avg_unit_price": 0.022637710347933326, "median_unit_price": 0.02264686528073334 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 89455.64, "fob_share": 0.3628651665886221, "min_unit_price": 0.02500515812616269, "max_unit_price": 0.02522336495257114, "avg_unit_price": 0.02507789373496551, "median_unit_price": 0.02500515812616269 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 89573.5, "fob_share": 0.3633432503464951, "min_unit_price": 0.026342770562770564, "max_unit_price": 3.3496055684454755, "avg_unit_price": 1.1352877862570308, "median_unit_price": 0.02991501976284585 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }