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PHARMACEUTICALS" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 1, "raw_top_supplier_count": 1 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 5.67, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 46.81, "gap_cv": 1.45, "rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "years_active": 3, "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": "2015", "avg_annual_fob": 47673.37, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 5.67, "p75": 5.67 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 121079.56, "latest_year_fob": 8347.51, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 121079.56, "avg_annual_fob": 47673.37, "median_annual_fob": 13593.04, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.06894235492761949, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.9310576450723805, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.06894235492761949, "peak_multiple": 8.90746735093842, "cagr_fob": -0.7374312377154901 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "FRESENIUS", "KABI", "DEUTSCHLAND" ], "primary_name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "members": [ { "entity_id": "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5", "name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "fob": 143020.11000000002, "pct": 1, "qty": 30300, "shipment_count": 17, "avg_unit_price": 4.720135643564357, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 50, "supplier_market_share": 0.0014391923778153673, "supplier_total_fob": 143020.11000000002, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.45, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5" ], "aliases": [ "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 143020.11000000002, "label": "FRESENIUS KABI", "affiliated_to_importer": true, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "FRESENIUS", "KABI", "DEUTSCHLAND" ], "primary_name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "members": [ { "entity_id": "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5", "name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "fob": 143020.11000000002, "pct": 1, "qty": 30300, "shipment_count": 17, "avg_unit_price": 4.720135643564357, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2013, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 50, "supplier_market_share": 0.0014391923778153673, "supplier_total_fob": 143020.11000000002, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.45, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5" ], "aliases": [ "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 1, "total_fob": 143020.11000000002, "label": "FRESENIUS KABI", "affiliated_to_importer": true, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 1, "external_group_count": 0, "total_group_count": 1, "summary_text": "表面上有 1 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 1 个供应集团。 与 importer 明显同集团/同品牌的关联供应体系合计占 100.0%。 其中 FRESENIUS KABI 占比最高，约 100.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "FRESENIUS KABI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": true } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "FRESENIUS KABI DEUTSCHLAND GMBH PHARMACEUTICALS", "supplier_entity_id": "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5", "total_share": 1, "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 17, "account_annualized_shipments": 5.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 46.81, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "FRESENIUS KABI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 100%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "supplier_count": 1, "external_group_count": 0, "affiliated_share": 1 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 47673.37, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 17, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 10000, "top_supplier_pct": 1, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.06894235492761949, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.9310576450723805, "cagr_fob": -0.7374312377154901, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 121079.56, "latest_year_fob": 8347.51 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2013年 100% → 2015年 100%（+0pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 7%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "8dce221d-03c1-4128-b45c-a26de6607da5": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 1, "account_shipment_count": 17, "account_annualized_shipments": 5.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 46.81, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "FRESENIUS KABI", "group_share": 1, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 100%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "单一锁定", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 4, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "8.0 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $48K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，集团内闭环高-2.0；Top1 过高-1.0；外部窗口极少-0.5" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.0 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，收缩严重-0.5" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2013年 100% → 2015年 100%（+0pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 7%", "单一锁定（HHI 10,000 · Top1 100%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$48K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "-73.7%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $121K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "7%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2013年 100% → 2015年 100%（+0pp）" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2013, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 17, "band_count": 2, "range_multiple": 3.540841190393047, "summary_text": "存在 2 个明显价格带：低价带 $1.72–$2.10（FOB 占比 7%）；高价带 $2.20–$6.08（FOB 占比 93%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 9, "fob_total_usd": 9473.11, "fob_share": 0.06623620971903879, "min_unit_price": 1.7182, "max_unit_price": 2.10287, "avg_unit_price": 1.8254766666666664, "median_unit_price": 1.7272333333333332 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 133547, "fob_share": 0.9337637902809609, "min_unit_price": 2.1985, "max_unit_price": 6.083873333333333, "avg_unit_price": 4.110297552083333, "median_unit_price": 4.076456875 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }