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"2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0.33049021224644515, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SOCIETE INDUSTRIELLE DES PLASTIQUES D AVESNES", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 157, "supplier_market_share": 0.00005404534542030096, "supplier_total_fob": 5370.77, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.82, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "5c333f1b-fe75-4232-8e65-1c56626b88a9" ], "aliases": [ "SOCIETE INDUSTRIELLE DES PLASTIQUES D AVESNES" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.044829140740232504, "total_fob": 5370.77, "label": "SOCIETE INDUSTRIELLE", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-4", "tokens": [ "SIPV", "GROUPE", "VYGON" ], "primary_name": "SIPV GROUPE VYGON", "members": [ { "entity_id": "495449fe-2c13-47b1-806d-fa0c533a5473", "name": "SIPV GROUPE VYGON", "fob": 1800.31, "pct": 0.015026960820524427, "qty": 47000, "shipment_count": 9, "avg_unit_price": 0.03830446808510638, "is_china": false, 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"dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "VYGON" ], "primary_name": "VYGON S.A.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "7f03d2d9-60ea-4276-93ab-90cb573db710", "name": "VYGON S.A.", "fob": 82624.05, "pct": 0.6896525388311188, "qty": 136666, "shipment_count": 46, "avg_unit_price": 0.6045691686300909, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2010, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 6, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -0.5177325832330115, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 1, "2011": 0.7266451403211488, "2012": 0.01762307963781942, "2013": 0.9946201442359881, "2014": 0.39732396688925914, "2015": 0.4822674167669884 }, "canonical_name": "VYGON S.A.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 57, "supplier_market_share": 0.0010485655575370248, "supplier_total_fob": 104201.46999999999, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.49, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "7f03d2d9-60ea-4276-93ab-90cb573db710" ], "aliases": [ "VYGON S.A." ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "99119a37-2103-4259-b8df-724319e83049", "name": "VYGON", "fob": 21577.420000000002, "pct": 0.18010400705878443, "qty": 48603, "shipment_count": 13, "avg_unit_price": 0.4439524309199021, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2011, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2012, "supplier_active_years": 2, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.2733548596788512, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.9823769203621806, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.9823769203621806, "supplier_delta": -0.2733548596788512, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0.2733548596788512, "2012": 0.9823769203621806, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "VYGON", "country": null, "supplier_rank": null, "supplier_market_share": 0, "supplier_total_fob": 21577.420000000002, "supplier_importer_count": 0, "customer_hhi": 0, "competitive_index": 0, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "99119a37-2103-4259-b8df-724319e83049" ], "aliases": [ "VYGON" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.8697565458899033, "total_fob": 104201.47, "label": "VYGON", "affiliated_to_importer": true, "member_count": 2 }, "affiliated_share": 0.8697565458899033, "external_group_count": 3, "total_group_count": 4, "summary_text": "表面上有 5 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 4 个供应集团。 与 importer 明显同集团/同品牌的关联供应体系合计占 87.0%。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 3 个，占 13.0%。 其中 VYGON 占比最高，约 87.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "7f03d2d9-60ea-4276-93ab-90cb573db710": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "VYGON", "group_share": 0.8697565458899033, "group_member_count": 2, "affiliated_to_importer": true }, "99119a37-2103-4259-b8df-724319e83049": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "VYGON", "group_share": 0.8697565458899033, "group_member_count": 2, "affiliated_to_importer": true }, "cfe9e65f-3e9b-4c4d-b119-9da58a1138a5": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "SIPA", "group_share": 0.07038735254933981, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "5c333f1b-fe75-4232-8e65-1c56626b88a9": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "SOCIETE INDUSTRIELLE", "group_share": 0.044829140740232504, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "495449fe-2c13-47b1-806d-fa0c533a5473": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "SIPV GROUPE", "group_share": 0.015026960820524427, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.044829140740232504, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 5370.77, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 26.261287956261082, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "VYGON S.A.", "supplier_entity_id": "7f03d2d9-60ea-4276-93ab-90cb573db710", "total_share": 0.6896525388311188, "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.6896525388311188, "account_shipment_count": 59, "account_annualized_shipments": 9.83, "account_avg_gap_days": 33.91, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.4822674167669884, "last_active_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.4822674167669884, "delta": -0.5177325832330115 }, "group_label": "VYGON", "group_share": 0.8697565458899033, "group_member_count": 2, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。 2010年 100% → 2015年 48%（-52pp）。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 69% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 10337.853830997237 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6896525388311188, "supplier_count": 5, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0.8697565458899033 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.4822674167669884, "delta": -0.5177325832330115 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 19967.555000000004, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 75, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5152.479184847526, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6896525388311188, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.24989562235518642, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.2883759197628377, "cagr_fob": 0.05198251100109941, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.044829140740232504, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 26.261287956261082, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 43112.68000000001, "latest_year_fob": 10773.67 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 48%（-52pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 25%", "中度集中（HHI 5,152 · Top1 69%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "7f03d2d9-60ea-4276-93ab-90cb573db710": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.6896525388311188, "account_shipment_count": 59, "account_annualized_shipments": 9.83, "account_avg_gap_days": 33.91, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.5177325832330115, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.4822674167669884, "last_active_year_share": 0.4822674167669884, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.4822674167669884, "delta": -0.5177325832330115 }, "group_label": "VYGON", "group_share": 0.8697565458899033, "group_member_count": 2, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。 2010年 100% → 2015年 48%（-52pp）。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 69% · 末年份额在回落" }, "99119a37-2103-4259-b8df-724319e83049": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.18010400705878443, "account_shipment_count": 13, "account_annualized_shipments": null, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": null, "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0, "peak_share_year": null, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": null, "last_active_year": null, "first_active_share": 0, "last_active_share": 0, "last_active_year_share": 0, "active_year_count": 0, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0, "to_share": 0, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "VYGON", "group_share": 0.8697565458899033, "group_member_count": 2, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "累计份额 18%" }, "cfe9e65f-3e9b-4c4d-b119-9da58a1138a5": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.07038735254933981, "account_shipment_count": 5, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 22.25, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.41570142764721774, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.41570142764721774, "peak_share": 0.41570142764721774, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.41570142764721774, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.1723828955271901, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.24331853212002763, "last_active_share": 0.41570142764721774, "last_active_year_share": 0.41570142764721774, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.24331853212002763, "to_share": 0.41570142764721774, "delta": 0.1723828955271901 }, "group_label": "SIPA", "group_share": 0.07038735254933981, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 份额扩张中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 24% → 2015年 42%（+17pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 7% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "5c333f1b-fe75-4232-8e65-1c56626b88a9": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.044829140740232504, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.33049021224644515, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.33049021224644515, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.33049021224644515, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.33049021224644515, "last_active_share": 0.33049021224644515, "last_active_year_share": 0.33049021224644515, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.33049021224644515, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.33049021224644515 }, "group_label": "SOCIETE INDUSTRIELLE", "group_share": 0.044829140740232504, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 33% → 2015年 0%（-33pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 4% · 已退出当前样本" }, "495449fe-2c13-47b1-806d-fa0c533a5473": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.015026960820524427, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 68, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.10203115558579388, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.10203115558579388, "peak_share": 0.10203115558579388, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.10203115558579388, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.096651299821782, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.005379855764011886, "last_active_share": 0.10203115558579388, "last_active_year_share": 0.10203115558579388, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.005379855764011886, "to_share": 0.10203115558579388, "delta": 0.096651299821782 }, "group_label": "SIPV GROUPE", "group_share": 0.015026960820524427, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2013年 1% → 2015年 10%（+10pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 2%" } }, "decision_summary": { "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "scenario_action_level": "暂时忽略", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "supply_structure_label": "中度集中", "priority_score": 1, "legacy_priority_score": 5.5, "score_formula": "0.3×体量分 + 0.3×窗口分 + 0.2×壁垒分 + 0.2×趋势分 + 时效修正", "score_breakdown": [ { "label": "体量分", "value": "6.5 / 10", "detail": "年均 FOB $20K" }, { "label": "窗口分", "value": "0.0 / 10", "detail": "零渗透 · 收缩型" }, { "label": "壁垒分", "value": "3.0 / 10", "detail": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，集团内闭环高-2.0" }, { "label": "趋势分", "value": "1.8 / 10", "detail": "shrinking 基础分 1.5，仍高于起点+0.3" }, { "label": "时效修正", "value": "-0.75", "detail": "历史" } ], "score_modifier_summary": [ "零渗透且持续收缩，强制降为不建议投入", "该账户综合分偏低，建议审慎评估投入产出比。" ], "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 48%（-52pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 25%", "中度集中（HHI 5,152 · Top1 69%）" ], "trigger_facts": [ { "label": "年均 FOB", "value": "$20K" }, { "label": "CAGR", "value": "+5.2%" }, { "label": "峰值年", "value": "2013 · $43K" }, { "label": "末年 / 峰值", "value": "25%" }, { "label": "主供份额轨迹", "value": "2010年 100% → 2015年 48%（-52pp）" }, { "label": "退出供应商", "value": "1 家 · 历史份额 4%" }, { "label": "供应商价差", "value": "26.3x" } ] } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 75, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 53.77085645491996, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.04–$0.26（FOB 占比 11%）；中价带 $0.28–$0.94（FOB 占比 33%）；高价带 $0.98–$1.91（FOB 占比 55%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 13759.099999999997, "fob_share": 0.11484547473806045, "min_unit_price": 0.03544066666666667, "max_unit_price": 0.2566702702702703, "avg_unit_price": 0.14062735620915412, "median_unit_price": 0.213165 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 39936.25, "fob_share": 0.33334284876975, "min_unit_price": 0.2817452380952381, "max_unit_price": 0.94299, "avg_unit_price": 0.5645612445845005, "median_unit_price": 0.60465 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 66109.98000000001, "fob_share": 0.5518116764921894, "min_unit_price": 0.97741, "max_unit_price": 1.905675, "avg_unit_price": 1.2636147732525718, "median_unit_price": 1.2285181625985009 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }