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"supplier_delta": -0.00005501265779366591, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.00005501265779366591, "2022": 0.22567273834266838, "2023": 0.15776844468080775, "2024": 0.10544443946428306, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "BECTON DICKINSON INDUSTRIAS CIRURGICAS LTDA", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 6, "supplier_market_share": 0.0356124891972338, "supplier_total_fob": 1976365.7400000002, "supplier_importer_count": 5, "customer_hhi": 3259.0748136865923, "competitive_index": 6.16, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "a0214de7-eec7-423d-bbed-9c19b5155034" ], "aliases": [ "BECTON DICKINSON INDUSTRIAS CIRURGICAS LTDA" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.08698716095833997, "total_fob": 288344.26, "label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-4", "tokens": [ "UPS" ], "primary_name": "UPS HEALTHCARE", "members": [ { "entity_id": "d4a02975-8a4a-46c7-a9e7-99c63ee1ce58", "name": "UPS 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"variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.01598378590997872, "total_fob": 52982.91, "label": "UPS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "BC" ], "primary_name": "BC DISTRIBUTION B V", "members": [ { "entity_id": "ab0c36c7-ce93-479a-9289-eb14f2a531f9", "name": "BC DISTRIBUTION B V", "fob": 1668129.8800000008, "pct": 0.5032383248099906, "qty": 16566000, "shipment_count": 90, "avg_unit_price": 0.10069599661958233, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2023, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9999449873422064, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.8422315553191922, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.9999449873422064, "supplier_delta": -0.9999449873422064, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.9999449873422064, "2022": 0.7743272616573318, "2023": 0.8422315553191922, "2024": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "BC DISTRIBUTION B V", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.030111794786794436, "supplier_total_fob": 1671096.8800000006, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9964.553435714373, "competitive_index": 4.76, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "ab0c36c7-ce93-479a-9289-eb14f2a531f9" ], "aliases": [ "BC DISTRIBUTION B V" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.5032383248099906, "total_fob": 1668129.8800000008, "label": "BC", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 4, "total_group_count": 4, "summary_text": "表面上有 4 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 4 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 4 个，占 100.0%。 其中 BC 占比最高，约 50.3%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "ab0c36c7-ce93-479a-9289-eb14f2a531f9": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "BC", "group_share": 0.5032383248099906, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "c63614d6-e377-4e9b-8728-85f1f71a834a": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "EMBECTA", "group_share": 0.3937907283216906, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "a0214de7-eec7-423d-bbed-9c19b5155034": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.08698716095833997, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "d4a02975-8a4a-46c7-a9e7-99c63ee1ce58": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "UPS", "group_share": 0.01598378590997872, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.5902254857683307, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 1956474.1400000008, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 3.0236055062540528, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "BC DISTRIBUTION B V", "supplier_entity_id": "ab0c36c7-ce93-479a-9289-eb14f2a531f9", "total_share": 0.5032383248099906, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.5032383248099906, "account_shipment_count": 90, "account_annualized_shipments": 30, "account_avg_gap_days": 11.47, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.9999449873422064, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.9999449873422064, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2023, "first_active_share": 0.9999449873422064, "last_active_share": 0.8422315553191922, "last_active_year_share": 0.8422315553191922, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9999449873422064, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.9999449873422064 }, "group_label": "BC", "group_share": 0.5032383248099906, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2023 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 50% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 822992.6524960058 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.5032383248099906, "supplier_count": 4, "top_supplier_sample_count": 4, "external_group_count": 4, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9999449873422064, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.9999449873422064 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "stable", "label": "平稳型" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 662958.2040000001, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 146, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 4161.4219685330145, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5032383248099906, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9999449873422064, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9999449873422064, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 0.9999449873422064, "top1_peak_share_year": 2021, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.13193759985742903, "cagr_fob": 0.03146767338528966, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.5902254857683307, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 3.0236055062540528, "peak_year": 2025, "peak_fob": 823037.93, "latest_year_fob": 823037.93 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）", "平稳型 · 末年/峰值 100%", "中度集中（HHI 4,161 · Top1 50%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "ab0c36c7-ce93-479a-9289-eb14f2a531f9": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.5032383248099906, "account_shipment_count": 90, "account_annualized_shipments": 30, "account_avg_gap_days": 11.47, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.9999449873422064, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.9999449873422064, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9999449873422064, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2023, "first_active_share": 0.9999449873422064, "last_active_share": 0.8422315553191922, "last_active_year_share": 0.8422315553191922, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9999449873422064, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.9999449873422064 }, "group_label": "BC", "group_share": 0.5032383248099906, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2023 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 50% · 已退出当前样本" }, "c63614d6-e377-4e9b-8728-85f1f71a834a": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.3937907283216906, "account_shipment_count": 43, "account_annualized_shipments": 21.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 15.43, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.9356251904453541, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.9356251904453541, "peak_share": 0.9356251904453541, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9356251904453541, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.04106962990963714, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2024, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.8945555605357169, "last_active_share": 0.9356251904453541, "last_active_year_share": 0.9356251904453541, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8945555605357169, "to_share": 0.9356251904453541, "delta": 0.04106962990963714 }, "group_label": "EMBECTA", "group_share": 0.3937907283216906, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2024年 89% → 2025年 94%（+4pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 39%" }, "a0214de7-eec7-423d-bbed-9c19b5155034": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.08698716095833997, "account_shipment_count": 12, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 114.64, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.00005501265779366591, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.22567273834266838, "peak_share_year": 2022, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.00005501265779366591, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.00005501265779366591, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.22567273834266838, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.00005501265779366591, "last_active_share": 0.10544443946428306, "last_active_year_share": 0.10544443946428306, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2022, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.22567273834266838, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.22567273834266838 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.08698716095833997, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2022年 23% → 2025年 0%（-23pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 9% · 已退出当前样本" }, "d4a02975-8a4a-46c7-a9e7-99c63ee1ce58": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.01598378590997872, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.06437480955464592, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.06437480955464592, "peak_share": 0.06437480955464592, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.06437480955464592, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2025, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.06437480955464592, "last_active_share": 0.06437480955464592, "last_active_year_share": 0.06437480955464592, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2025, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.06437480955464592, "to_share": 0.06437480955464592, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "UPS", "group_share": 0.01598378590997872, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 到 2025 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 2%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 146, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 33.224349999999994, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.10（FOB 占比 34%）；中价带 $0.10–$0.10（FOB 占比 25%）；高价带 $0.10–$0.66（FOB 占比 41%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 49, "fob_total_usd": 1112855.56, "fob_share": 0.33572419898736167, "min_unit_price": 0.02, "max_unit_price": 0.095, "avg_unit_price": 0.08863950144769041, "median_unit_price": 0.092 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 49, "fob_total_usd": 844203.3099999999, "fob_share": 0.2546776870416403, "min_unit_price": 0.095, "max_unit_price": 0.09851163888888889, "avg_unit_price": 0.09555462795105948, "median_unit_price": 0.09501133944954128 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 48, "fob_total_usd": 1357732.1499999997, "fob_share": 0.4095981139709975, "min_unit_price": 0.099913, "max_unit_price": 0.6644869999999999, "avg_unit_price": 0.23162959394930502, "median_unit_price": 0.118 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 146, "date_min": "2021-01-14", "date_max": "2025-12-01", "total_fob_usd": 3314791.0200000014, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000", "9018319000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 135, "fob_total_usd": 3000564.1400000006, "fob_share": 0.9052046182989838 }, { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 11, "fob_total_usd": 314226.88, "fob_share": 0.09479538170101591 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 11 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T11:13:01.099Z" }