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0.000025632649603333708, "supplier_total_fob": 3355.776315789471, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5868.035133962384, "competitive_index": 2.6, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "8799c660-58dc-4774-ba3f-b79e2be914c2" ], "aliases": [ "AESCULAP AG" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 4, "raw_top_supplier_count": 2 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 105, "frequency_tier": "高频采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 3.44, "gap_cv": 2.17, "rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "years_active": 5, "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": "2025", "avg_annual_fob": 835571.39, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 6 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 27.35, "p75": 78.05 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_fob": 341091.62, "latest_year_fob": 1249036.470517838, "peak_year": 2024, "peak_fob": 1525269.4100429546, "avg_annual_fob": 835571.3861121585, "median_annual_fob": 581108.8600000002, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 3.6618796747860234, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.6618796747860234, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.8188956405299327, "peak_multiple": 2.6247567625159838, "cagr_fob": 0.3833307069488612 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "BRAUN", "MELSUNGEN" ], "primary_name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "members": [ { "entity_id": "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340", "name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "fob": 4147890.480560793, "pct": 0.9928273154159979, "qty": 5578904, "shipment_count": 517, "avg_unit_price": 0.7434955827454269, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2025, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9191142544047256, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.07898267866640041, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.9191142544047256, "2022": 1, "2023": 1, "2024": 1, "2025": 0.998096933071126 }, "canonical_name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "country": "DE", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.03168310795357806, "supplier_total_fob": 4147890.480560793, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 6.3, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340" ], "aliases": [ "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.9928273154159979, "total_fob": 4147890.480560793, "label": "BRAUN MELSUNGEN", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "AESCULAP" ], "primary_name": "AESCULAP AG", "members": [ { "entity_id": "8799c660-58dc-4774-ba3f-b79e2be914c2", "name": "AESCULAP AG", "fob": 2376.9999999999973, "pct": 0.0005689519865106853, "qty": 5, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 475.39999999999947, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2025", "supplier_first_active_year": 2025, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2025, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0.001903066928873996 }, "canonical_name": "AESCULAP AG", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 262, "supplier_market_share": 0.000025632649603333708, "supplier_total_fob": 3355.776315789471, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 5868.035133962384, "competitive_index": 2.6, "competitive_signal": "长尾补充型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "8799c660-58dc-4774-ba3f-b79e2be914c2" ], "aliases": [ "AESCULAP AG" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.0005689519865106853, "total_fob": 2376.9999999999973, "label": "AESCULAP", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "BRAUN", "MELSUNGEN" ], "primary_name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "members": [ { "entity_id": "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340", "name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "fob": 4147890.480560793, "pct": 0.9928273154159979, "qty": 5578904, "shipment_count": 517, "avg_unit_price": 0.7434955827454269, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2025, "supplier_active_years": 5, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.9191142544047256, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0.07898267866640041, "supplier_status": "stable", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.9191142544047256, "2022": 1, "2023": 1, "2024": 1, "2025": 0.998096933071126 }, "canonical_name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "country": "DE", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.03168310795357806, "supplier_total_fob": 4147890.480560793, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 6.3, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340" ], "aliases": [ "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.9928273154159979, "total_fob": 4147890.480560793, "label": "BRAUN MELSUNGEN", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 99.3%。 其中 BRAUN MELSUNGEN 占比最高，约 99.3%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "BRAUN MELSUNGEN", "group_share": 0.9928273154159979, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "8799c660-58dc-4774-ba3f-b79e2be914c2": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "AESCULAP", "group_share": 0.0005689519865106853, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 155.45289640336557, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "B.BRAUN MELSUNGEN AG", "supplier_entity_id": "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340", "total_share": 0.9928273154159979, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9928273154159979, "account_shipment_count": 517, "account_annualized_shipments": 103.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 3.49, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.9191142544047256, "latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2022, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0019030669288739865, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.9191142544047256, "last_active_share": 0.998096933071126, "last_active_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9191142544047256, "to_share": 0.998096933071126, "delta": 0.07898267866640041 }, "group_label": "BRAUN MELSUNGEN", "group_share": 0.9928273154159979, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 92% → 2025年 100%（+8pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 99%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.9928273154159979, "supplier_count": 4, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9191142544047256, "to_share": 0.998096933071126, "delta": 0.07898267866640041 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "壁垒验证型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打尾部 / 外部窗口", "advantage_focus": "壁垒验证 + 外部窗口", "resource_boundary": "先验证品牌、集团采购或合规壁垒，别一上来就报全线价格。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 835571.3861121585, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 525, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 9857.499769400878, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9928273154159979, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9191142544047256, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9191142544047256, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2022, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0019030669288739865, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.8188956405299327, "latest_vs_first_growth": 2.6618796747860234, "cagr_fob": 0.3833307069488612, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 155.45289640336557, "peak_year": 2024, "peak_fob": 1525269.4100429546, "latest_year_fob": 1249036.470517838 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2021年 92% → 2025年 100%（+8pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 82%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,857 · Top1 99%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "0b7ea016-b247-43a5-a60d-02306b090340": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9928273154159979, "account_shipment_count": 517, "account_annualized_shipments": 103.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 3.49, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.9191142544047256, "latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2022, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.07898267866640041, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.0019030669288739865, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.9191142544047256, "last_active_share": 0.998096933071126, "last_active_year_share": 0.998096933071126, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9191142544047256, "to_share": 0.998096933071126, "delta": 0.07898267866640041 }, "group_label": "BRAUN MELSUNGEN", "group_share": 0.9928273154159979, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 92% → 2025年 100%（+8pp）。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 99%" }, "8799c660-58dc-4774-ba3f-b79e2be914c2": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.0005689519865106853, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "peak_share": 0.001903066928873996, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.001903066928873996, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2025, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.001903066928873996, "last_active_share": 0.001903066928873996, "last_active_year_share": 0.001903066928873996, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2025, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.001903066928873996, "to_share": 0.001903066928873996, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "AESCULAP", "group_share": 0.0005689519865106853, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 到 2025 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 525, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 7710977.868796221, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.00–$0.22（FOB 占比 3%）；中价带 $0.22–$1.12（FOB 占比 42%）；高价带 $1.18–$1571.33（FOB 占比 54%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 175, "fob_total_usd": 144731.71604821392, "fob_share": 0.034642573561940185, "min_unit_price": 0.00020377873728467006, "max_unit_price": 0.22444090909090908, "avg_unit_price": 0.0794069315949601, "median_unit_price": 0.0859320284697509 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 175, "fob_total_usd": 1763473.5800000008, "fob_share": 0.4221000405974385, "min_unit_price": 0.2248224852071006, "max_unit_price": 1.1155650000000001, "avg_unit_price": 0.659525601415886, "median_unit_price": 0.61782 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 175, "fob_total_usd": 2269651.6345125795, "fob_share": 0.5432573858406214, "min_unit_price": 1.177877358490565, "max_unit_price": 1571.33333333333, "avg_unit_price": 26.314047480184822, "median_unit_price": 10.78 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 525, "date_min": "2021-01-20", "date_max": "2025-12-26", "total_fob_usd": 4177856.9305607937, "hs_codes": [ "90183199", "90183101" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "90183199", "row_count": 204, "fob_total_usd": 3590278.491030172, "fob_share": 0.8593588891872965 }, { "hs_code": "90183101", "row_count": 321, "fob_total_usd": 587578.4395306199, "fob_share": 0.14064111081270303 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 4 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T12:28:35.941Z" }