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"last_active_share": 0.5467759294415293, "last_active_year_share": 0.5467759294415293, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8420827425718983, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.8420827425718983 }, "group_label": "EUROCOMMERCE", "group_share": 0.7295722589742726, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2023年 84% → 2025年 0%（-84pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点判断它卡的是品牌、合规，还是关键 SKU，再决定值不值得替代。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 73% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 106101.17366771522 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7295722589742726, "supplier_count": 5, "top_supplier_sample_count": 5, "external_group_count": 5, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "low", "label": "低渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "no_dominant", "raw_key": "no_dominant", "label": "无明显主供", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8420827425718983, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.8420827425718983 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "low_penetration_growth", "scenario_label": "低渗透 · 培育型", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打试单 / 二供入口", "advantage_focus": "扩大试单 + 稳定交付", "resource_boundary": "先把小单验证做稳，不要一上来谈全面替代。", "matrix_mode": "low_penetration", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.2704277410257275, "annualized_fob": 125998.51333333332, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 10, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5754.338057226709, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7295722589742726, "top1_first_year_share": 0.8420827425718983, "top1_first_active_year": 2023, "top1_first_active_share": 0.8420827425718983, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 0.8420827425718983, "top1_peak_share_year": 2023, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.000008547565599894864, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.9999914524344001, "cagr_fob": -0.9970763779998271, "exited_supplier_count": 4, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.99999470893228, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 3475.414421665674, "peak_year": 2023, "peak_fob": 233984.75, "latest_year_fob": 2 }, "trigger_summary": [ "低渗透（中国采购 27%）", "主供退出 · 2023年 84% → 2025年 0%（-84pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 0%", "中度集中（HHI 5,754 · Top1 73%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "dfa24e7e-17d3-4463-b634-0645c3a61735": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.7295722589742726, "account_shipment_count": 4, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 214.67, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.8420827425718983, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.8420827425718983, "peak_share_year": 2023, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.8420827425718983, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.8420827425718983, "last_active_share": 0.5467759294415293, "last_active_year_share": 0.5467759294415293, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8420827425718983, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.8420827425718983 }, "group_label": "EUROCOMMERCE", "group_share": 0.7295722589742726, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2023年 84% → 2025年 0%（-84pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点判断它卡的是品牌、合规，还是关键 SKU，再决定值不值得替代。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 73% · 已退出当前样本" }, "ed4af995-b71a-43ec-99fc-b57f11bc3bba": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.19263592369370286, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.15791725742810164, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.24904931150383255, "peak_share_year": 2024, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.15791725742810164, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.15791725742810164, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.24904931150383255, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.15791725742810164, "last_active_share": 0.24904931150383255, "last_active_year_share": 0.24904931150383255, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.24904931150383255, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.24904931150383255 }, "group_label": "ECI EURO", "group_share": 0.19263592369370286, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2024年 25% → 2025年 0%（-25pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 19% · 已退出当前样本" }, "106c0ae8-376a-4aa1-92b8-f2f59d0d2344": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.077778695484079, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.2041542047537515, "peak_share_year": 2024, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2041542047537515, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2041542047537515, "first_active_year": 2024, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.2041542047537515, "last_active_share": 0.2041542047537515, "last_active_year_share": 0.2041542047537515, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.2041542047537515, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.2041542047537515 }, "group_label": "VANSUN EQUIPMENT", "group_share": 0.077778695484079, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2024年 20% → 2025年 0%（-20pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 8% · 已退出当前样本" }, "e7eae10b-7c95-4c89-87ab-93630b98e37c": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.000007830780225607954, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.00002055430088677226, "peak_share_year": 2024, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.00002055430088677226, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.00002055430088677226, "first_active_year": 2024, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.00002055430088677226, "last_active_share": 0.00002055430088677226, "last_active_year_share": 0.00002055430088677226, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.00002055430088677226, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.00002055430088677226 }, "group_label": "APPLIANCE GENERAL", "group_share": 0.000007830780225607954, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这家历史供应已经退场了，把它当成“空出来份额”的线索来看。 2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪它原来那部分份额后来被谁接走了。", "entry_angle": "别再盯这家历史供应本身，顺着后面接盘的供应商去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" }, "48230c5f-f878-435e-81d8-93ec38a11f9b": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "价格带待核验", "sample_share": 0.000005291067720005374, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2025, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2025, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHENGKANG", "group_share": 0.000005291067720005374, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "这更像试单或探索关系，可以拿来判断客户到底在试什么。 到 2025 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小份额是在试新规格、临时补货，还是在验证替代供应。", "entry_angle": "如果这是中国试单，先判断你能不能在同类试单场景里做得更稳。", "entry_difficulty": "低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2023, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 9, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 7249.951997024839, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.03–$0.04（FOB 占比 30%）；中价带 $0.25–$2.03（FOB 占比 18%）；高价带 $140.00–$208.02（FOB 占比 52%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 114608.79, "fob_share": 0.3032030388667488, "min_unit_price": 0.028692232, "max_unit_price": 0.04, "avg_unit_price": 0.0334646248814451, "median_unit_price": 0.03170164264433529 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 66350.23000000001, "fob_share": 0.17553270883941563, "min_unit_price": 0.25, "max_unit_price": 2.030232417582418, "avg_unit_price": 0.843410805860806, "median_unit_price": 0.25 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 197034.52, "fob_share": 0.5212642522938354, "min_unit_price": 140, "max_unit_price": 208.0173046875, "avg_unit_price": 185.3448686079545, "median_unit_price": 208.0173011363636 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 10, "date_min": "2023-02-21", "date_max": "2025-08-20", "total_fob_usd": 377995.54000000004, "hs_codes": [ "90183110", "90183190" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "90183110", "row_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 268908.16000000003, "fob_share": 0.7114056425110201 }, { "hs_code": "90183190", "row_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 109087.38, "fob_share": 0.2885943574889799 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 6 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-23T22:29:59.613Z" }