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"ad716243-64bf-4403-9725-5acb206a0c86": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "REMITENTE YANGZHOU", "group_share": 0.8253837210740478, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "d9f0a55c-59ad-4de4-adc2-94eb2b315724": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "REMITENTE ANPHAR", "group_share": 0.174616278925952, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.174616278925952, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 57602.46, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 85.03636252502855, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "REMITENTE: YANGZHOU SUPER UNION IMPORT & EXPORT CO", "supplier_entity_id": "ad716243-64bf-4403-9725-5acb206a0c86", "total_share": 0.8253837210740478, "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.8253837210740478, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 117, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.8628472039017316, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.8628472039017316, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8628472039017316, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.13715279609826836 }, "group_label": "REMITENTE YANGZHOU", "group_share": 0.8253837210740478, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2023年 86% → 2025年 100%（+14pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 83% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8253837210740478, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8628472039017316, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.13715279609826836 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打二供 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "补位窗口 + 临时产能", "resource_boundary": "主供 REMITENTE: YANGZHOU SUPER UNION IMPORT & EXPORT CO 还很强，但客户自己的增量有限，别重仓硬打。", "matrix_mode": "project_overflow", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999998, "annualized_fob": 109960.08000000002, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 13, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7117.4913187998745, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8253837210740478, "top1_first_year_share": 0.8628472039017316, "top1_first_active_year": 2023, "top1_first_active_share": 0.8628472039017316, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2025, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.3780379235706034, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.6219620764293966, "cagr_fob": -0.3851521134698409, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.174616278925952, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 85.03636252502855, "peak_year": 2023, "peak_fob": 161097.7, "latest_year_fob": 60901.04 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2023年 86% → 2025年 100%（+14pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 38%", "高度集中（HHI 7,117 · Top1 83%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "ad716243-64bf-4403-9725-5acb206a0c86": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.8253837210740478, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 117, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.8628472039017316, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.13715279609826836, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.8628472039017316, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.8628472039017316, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.13715279609826836 }, "group_label": "REMITENTE YANGZHOU", "group_share": 0.8253837210740478, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2023年 86% → 2025年 100%（+14pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 83% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "d9f0a55c-59ad-4de4-adc2-94eb2b315724": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.174616278925952, "account_shipment_count": 4, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 141, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.1371527960982683, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.3291339108188151, "peak_share_year": 2024, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.1371527960982683, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.1371527960982683, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3291339108188151, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2024, "first_active_share": 0.1371527960982683, "last_active_share": 0.3291339108188151, "last_active_year_share": 0.3291339108188151, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.3291339108188151, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.3291339108188151 }, "group_label": "REMITENTE ANPHAR", "group_share": 0.174616278925952, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2024年 33% → 2025年 0%（-33pp）；2024 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 17% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2023, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 10, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 154.39982182628063, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.02（FOB 占比 48%）；中价带 $0.03–$0.13（FOB 占比 32%）；高价带 $2.76–$3.15（FOB 占比 20%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 4, "fob_total_usd": 128783.79999999999, "fob_share": 0.4787872073379651, "min_unit_price": 0.020409090909090908, "max_unit_price": 0.024594727272727275, "avg_unit_price": 0.0221402368344571, "median_unit_price": 0.021778564578005116 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 86816.64, "fob_share": 0.3227633958313505, "min_unit_price": 0.03335768421052632, "max_unit_price": 0.12799090909090907, "avg_unit_price": 0.0654386394188507, "median_unit_price": 0.034967324955116695 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 53378.76, "fob_share": 0.1984493968306843, "min_unit_price": 2.761875, "max_unit_price": 3.15116, "avg_unit_price": 2.922005490817488, "median_unit_price": 2.8529814724524623 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [ "payment_distribution" ] } }