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"exited_supplier_share_total": 0.038704627030204525, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 22491.7, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SOMMAPLAST INDUSTRIA E COMERCIO LTDA.", "supplier_entity_id": "553a9f83-7528-43f9-9915-4f6209d655cc", "total_share": 0.038704627030204525, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.038704627030204525, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 54.5, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SOMMAPLAST COMERCIO", "group_share": 0.038704627030204525, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 4% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 116222.28000000003 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.038704627030204525, "supplier_count": 3, "top_supplier_sample_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（小客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "打试单 / 非核心规格", "advantage_focus": "教育成本可控 + 小单验证", "resource_boundary": "先证明这类品类能接受中国来源，再决定值不值得长期投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 116222.28000000003, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 51, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5323.638202375293, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6661488657768543, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2021, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.39442817010143466, "latest_vs_first_growth": 3.0887482938150512, "cagr_fob": 0, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.038704627030204525, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2022, "peak_fob": 233155, "latest_year_fob": 91962.9 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 39%", "中度集中（HHI 5,324 · Top1 67%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "553a9f83-7528-43f9-9915-4f6209d655cc": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.038704627030204525, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": 54.5, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SOMMAPLAST COMERCIO", "group_share": 0.038704627030204525, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 4% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 51, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.4150943396226414, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.07。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 51, "fob_total_usd": 581111.3999999999, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.053, "max_unit_price": 0.075, "avg_unit_price": 0.06888409851676192, "median_unit_price": 0.06899999999999999 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 51, "date_min": "2021-08-23", "date_max": "2025-12-23", "total_fob_usd": 581111.3999999999, "hs_codes": [ "9018311900", "9018311990", "90183119" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018311900", "row_count": 33, "fob_total_usd": 325464.7, "fob_share": 0.5600728190842583 }, { "hs_code": "9018311990", "row_count": 15, "fob_total_usd": 233155, "fob_share": 0.40122255388553735 }, { "hs_code": "90183119", "row_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 22491.7, "fob_share": 0.038704627030204546 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 4 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T11:37:40.388Z" }