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"supplier_motion_override": false, "trend_label": "pulse_reverted", "trend_label_name": "脉冲后回归", "suppliers_list_json": [ { "entity_id": null, "name": "0", "fob": 550255.9, "pct": 0.6359311521330943, "qty": 1243825, "shipment_count": 3, "avg_unit_price": 0.44239012722850884, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2023", "supplier_first_active_year": 2023, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2023, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0, "2023": 1, "2025": 0 } }, { "entity_id": null, "name": "未提供供应商名称", "fob": 218000, "pct": 0.25194276184047193, "qty": 500000, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 0.436, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2025", "supplier_first_active_year": 2025, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2025, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0, "2023": 0, "2025": 1 } }, { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 } } ], "group_rollup_summary": { "total_group_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_group_count": 0, "affiliated_group_share": 0 }, "ch2_china_level": "full", "ch2_china_trend": "stable", "ch2_source_competition": "mono", "ch2_pattern": "full__stable__mono", "source_distribution_fob_json": { "CN": 865275.9 }, "source_share_by_year_json": { "2021": { "CN": 1 }, "2023": { "CN": 1 }, "2025": { "CN": 1 } }, "source_count_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 1, "2025": 1 }, "china_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 1, "2025": 1 }, "china_fob_by_year": { "2021": 97020, "2023": 550255.9, "2025": 218000 }, "market_total_fob": 15638222.43, "annualized_fob_p25": 1080, "annualized_fob_p50": 5531.899999999999, "annualized_fob_p75": 34018.78499999999, "annualized_fob_p90": 104682.98400000005, "data_freshness": "fresh", "data_freshness_label": "新鲜", "volume_score": 10, "window_score": 5.5, "barrier_score": 5, "trend_score": 4.8, "barrier_score_base": 5, "barrier_score_adjustments": [], "barrier_score_reason": "concentrated 基础分 5.0，无额外修正", "trend_score_base": 4, "trend_score_adjustments": [ { "label": "长期 CAGR 为正", "delta": 0.8 } ], "trend_score_reason": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，长期 CAGR 为正+0.8", "priority_score_v2": 6.6, "priority_weighted_raw": 6.61, "priority_freshness_modifier": 0, "priority_override": null, "priority_level": "先研究", "yoy_volatility": 2.637696267959808, "unit_price_quartile": "Q1", "rank": 7, "market_share": 0.05533083468234056, "ch1_scale_tier": "significant", "ch1_rank_tier": "mid", "ch1_growth_class": "post_peak", "ch1_pattern": "significant__post_peak", "suppliers_list": [ { "entity_id": null, "name": "0", "fob": 550255.9, "pct": 0.6359311521330943, "qty": 1243825, "shipment_count": 3, "avg_unit_price": 0.44239012722850884, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2023", "supplier_first_active_year": 2023, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2023, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0, "2023": 1, "2025": 0 } }, { "entity_id": null, "name": "未提供供应商名称", "fob": 218000, "pct": 0.25194276184047193, "qty": 500000, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 0.436, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2025", "supplier_first_active_year": 2025, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2025, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0, "2023": 0, "2025": 1 } }, { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 } } ], "active_year_count": 3, "name": "DUTRIEC SA", "tax_id": "800150562" } }, "market": { "total_fob": 15638222.43, "importer_count": 99, "market_avg_unit_price_usd": 0.06196035461306493, "market_median_unit_price_usd": 0.10098223350253807, "hs_code": "90183119", "hs_code_6": "901831", "product_category": "医疗器械 · 注射器", "hs_description": "Syringes, with or without needles", "hs_description_zh": "注射器（带针或不带针）", "hs_description_es": "Jeringas, con o sin aguja", "total_records": 1773, "country": "巴拉圭", "country_code": "PRY", "snapshot_date": "2025-12-30", "status": "draft", "project_last_year": 2025, "market_china_pct": 0.5020908402567081, "market_fob_by_year": { "2021": 2451279.54, "2022": 3157112.78, "2023": 2877053.53, "2024": 2181708.03, "2025": 4971068.55 } }, "top_suppliers": [ { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.006204029929506509, "supplier_total_fob": 97020, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.52, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "all_suppliers": [ { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.006204029929506509, "supplier_total_fob": 97020, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.52, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 3, "raw_top_supplier_count": 1 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 2, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 310.8, "gap_cv": 0.84, "rhythm_label": "常规补货", "years_active": 3, "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": "2025", "avg_annual_fob": 288425.3, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 4.13 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1, "p75": 1 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2021, 2023, 2025 ], "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_fob": 97020, "latest_year_fob": 218000, "peak_year": 2023, "peak_fob": 550255.9, "avg_annual_fob": 288425.3, "median_annual_fob": 218000, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 2.2469593898165328, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.2469593898165328, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.39617930493793885, "peak_multiple": 2.524109633027523, "cagr_fob": 0.498986120621713 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SHANDONG", "GLASS" ], "primary_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.006204029929506509, "supplier_total_fob": 97020, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.52, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.11212608602643388, "total_fob": 97020, "label": "SHANDONG GLASS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "SHANDONG", "GLASS" ], "primary_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "fob": 97020, "pct": 0.11212608602643388, "qty": 198000, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.49, "is_china": true, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 1, "2023": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "country": "CN", "supplier_rank": 8, "supplier_market_share": 0.006204029929506509, "supplier_total_fob": 97020, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 5.52, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba" ], "aliases": [ "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.11212608602643388, "total_fob": 97020, "label": "SHANDONG GLASS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 1, "total_group_count": 1, "summary_text": "表面上有 1 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 1 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 1 个，占 11.2%。 其中 SHANDONG GLASS 占比最高，约 11.2%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SHANDONG GLASS", "group_share": 0.11212608602643388, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.11212608602643388, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 97020, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SHANDONG PHARMACEUTICAL GLASS CO., LTD.", "supplier_entity_id": "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba", "total_share": 0.11212608602643388, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.11212608602643388, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG GLASS", "group_share": 0.11212608602643388, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 11% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 288425.3 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "china_dominant_expand", "top_supplier_pct": 0.11212608602643388, "supplier_count": 3, "top_supplier_sample_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "resource_boundary": "窗口虽然大，但也容易卷，别拖太久才动作。", "matrix_mode": "rebuild", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 1, "annualized_fob": 288425.3, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 6, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 4804.5584466473665, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6359311521330943, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2021, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.39617930493793885, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.2469593898165328, "cagr_fob": 0.498986120621713, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.11212608602643388, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2023, "peak_fob": 550255.9, "latest_year_fob": 218000 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供退出 · 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 40%", "中度集中（HHI 4,805 · Top1 64%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "f1fc2b9e-8def-44c6-84da-53a350ac3cba": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.11212608602643388, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG GLASS", "group_share": 0.11212608602643388, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 11% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2023, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2023→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 6, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.1893203883495147, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.46。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 6, "fob_total_usd": 865275.9, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.412, "max_unit_price": 0.49, "avg_unit_price": 0.4503333333333333, "median_unit_price": 0.46 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [ "payment_distribution" ] } }