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}, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 BECTON DICKINSON 占比最高，约 99.7%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "76a69232-1d7e-4358-a24a-8b589067a6d1": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.9973420826803324, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "0967d15a-ea9a-4afc-80f2-41db4ca1862d": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.0026579173196675777, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.0026579173196675777, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 4800, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1529.9112250787211, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "BECTON DICKINSON INDUSTRIAS CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "supplier_entity_id": "76a69232-1d7e-4358-a24a-8b589067a6d1", "total_share": 0.9973420826803324, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9973420826803324, "account_shipment_count": 133, "account_annualized_shipments": 22.17, "account_avg_gap_days": 15.37, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.9973420826803324, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 100%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9973420826803324, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 300987.5416666667, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 135, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 9946.982944096211, "top_supplier_pct": 0.9973420826803324, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.22961371747753845, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.4992300096944454, "cagr_fob": -0.129181475517396, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.0026579173196675777, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1529.9112250787211, "peak_year": 2012, "peak_fob": 485927.24, "latest_year_fob": 111575.56000000001 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 100%（+0pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 23%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,947 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "76a69232-1d7e-4358-a24a-8b589067a6d1": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.9973420826803324, "account_shipment_count": 133, "account_annualized_shipments": 22.17, "account_avg_gap_days": 15.37, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.9973420826803324, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 100%" }, "0967d15a-ea9a-4afc-80f2-41db4ca1862d": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.0026579173196675777, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.01624273962228524, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.01624273962228524, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.01624273962228524, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.01624273962228524, "last_active_share": 0.01624273962228524, "last_active_year_share": 0.01624273962228524, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.01624273962228524, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.01624273962228524 }, "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.0026579173196675777, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 135, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 136714.2857142857, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.00–$0.06（FOB 占比 40%）；中价带 $0.06–$0.08（FOB 占比 38%）；高价带 $0.08–$180.00（FOB 占比 22%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 45, "fob_total_usd": 722943.2499999999, "fob_share": 0.4003173719399514, "min_unit_price": 0.001316614420062696, "max_unit_price": 0.06345097623089983, "avg_unit_price": 0.05416619209361358, "median_unit_price": 0.05973134328358209 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 45, "fob_total_usd": 684156.18, "fob_share": 0.37883970003741846, "min_unit_price": 0.06345571900330231, "max_unit_price": 0.07552378130093347, "avg_unit_price": 0.07063340902296465, "median_unit_price": 0.0701161995898838 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 45, "fob_total_usd": 398825.82, "fob_share": 0.22084292802262992, "min_unit_price": 0.07571186440677966, "max_unit_price": 180, "avg_unit_price": 7.527288610717351, "median_unit_price": 0.097 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [ "payment_distribution" ] } }