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"share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7384669516397235, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.7384669516397235, "last_active_share": 0.1590014852646116, "last_active_year_share": 0.1590014852646116, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG ZIBO", "group_share": 0.6822972507044507, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 68% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 42180.62333333333 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6822972507044507, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "rebuild_window", "scenario_label": "重建型窗口", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打替代窗口 / 急单补位", "advantage_focus": "快速替代 + 补位能力", "resource_boundary": "窗口虽然大，但也容易卷，别拖太久才动作。", "matrix_mode": "rebuild", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 1, "annualized_fob": 42180.62333333333, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 18, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5664.645752288027, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6822972507044507, "top1_first_year_share": 0.7384669516397235, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 0.7384669516397235, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2012, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.7384669516397235, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7384669516397235, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.31898797261313894, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.43532660599961637, "cagr_fob": 0.27640858086352305, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.6822972507044507, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0869749009738612, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 69025.79999999999, "latest_year_fob": 22018.4 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供退出 · 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 32%", "中度集中（HHI 5,665 · Top1 68%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "6b5022d2-c229-4a18-b7aa-1bcd5083022e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.6822972507044507, "account_shipment_count": 10, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 141.78, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.7384669516397235, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.7384669516397235, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.7384669516397235, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.7384669516397235, "last_active_share": 0.1590014852646116, "last_active_year_share": 0.1590014852646116, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG ZIBO", "group_share": 0.6822972507044507, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 68% · 已退出当前样本" }, "1d865794-b9fc-4934-9777-c121d36bfdd8": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.31770274929554937, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 217.29, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.2615330483602765, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.7384669516397235, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.7384669516397235, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.2615330483602765, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.2615330483602765, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.7384669516397235 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG QIAOPAI", "group_share": 0.31770274929554937, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "二供这层通常最容易被挤，也最适合新供应商切进去。 2010年 26% → 2015年 100%（+74pp）。", "attack_focus": "优先判断它接的是备份单、补充规格，还是某个价格带的专门份额。", "entry_angle": "更适合先以第二供应商、备份位或补充型 SKU 的身份切进去。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 32%" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 18, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 2.260328659712157, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 18, "fob_total_usd": 253083.74000000002, "fob_share": 0.9999999999999999, "min_unit_price": 0.021824976348155157, "max_unit_price": 0.049331619537275065, "avg_unit_price": 0.035698755498330154, "median_unit_price": 0.03287139917695473 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }