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"peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9936523654460165, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.9936523654460165, "last_active_share": 0.9936523654460165, "last_active_year_share": 0.9936523654460165, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2013, "from_share": 0.9936523654460165, "to_share": 0.9936523654460165, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "GLAXOSMITHKLINE BIOLOGICALS", "group_share": 0.991135818258948, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 到 2013 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 99%", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.991135818258948, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2013, "from_share": 0.9936523654460165, "to_share": 0.9936523654460165, "delta": 0 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "insufficient_data", "scenario_label": "样本不足 · 待核验", "opportunity_type": "待核验型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先核验现状", "advantage_focus": "确认是否仍在采购 + 样本是否有效", "resource_boundary": "样本年数偏少或核心触发指标不足，别按正式开发账户投入节奏、样品和报价。", "matrix_mode": "insufficient_data", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 2369.085, "active_years": 2, "shipment_count": 7, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 9824.287839537727, "top_supplier_pct": 0.991135818258948, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9936523654460165, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.9936523654460165, "top1_peak_share": 0.9936523654460165, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9936523654460165, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 392.8475, "cagr_fob": 589.77125, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.2776368828215332, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 4726.17, "latest_year_fob": 4726.17 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供稳定 · 2013年 99% → 2013年 99%（+0pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,824 · Top1 99%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "e39f81e8-85c4-4a5e-a354-c3731a457c2f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.991135818258948, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 3, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2013, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.9936523654460165, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.9936523654460165, "peak_share": 0.9936523654460165, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.9936523654460165, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.9936523654460165, "last_active_share": 0.9936523654460165, "last_active_year_share": 0.9936523654460165, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2013, "from_share": 0.9936523654460165, "to_share": 0.9936523654460165, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "GLAXOSMITHKLINE BIOLOGICALS", "group_share": 0.991135818258948, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 持续供货 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 到 2013 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 99%" }, "5f397474-86f1-4a9b-bcc1-fa2d292b0fcf": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.008864181741051925, "account_shipment_count": 4, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": 65.67, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2013, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.006347634553983458, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.006347634553983458, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9936523654460165, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9936523654460165, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9936523654460165, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.006347634553983458, "last_active_year_share": 0.006347634553983458, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2013, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.006347634553983458, "delta": -0.9936523654460165 }, "group_label": "QUEST DIAGNOSTICS", "group_share": 0.008864181741051925, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2012年 100% → 2013年 1%（-99pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 1%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2012, "prev_year": 2012, "last_year": 2013, "gap_years": 13, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2013年（相较2012年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2013 年，距今已 13 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 7, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.2776368828215332, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $1.00。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 7, "fob_total_usd": 4738.17, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.782695, "max_unit_price": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.9068692857142857, "median_unit_price": 1 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 7, "date_min": "2012-11-06", "date_max": "2013-08-01", "total_fob_usd": 4738.17, "hs_codes": [ "9018319000", "9018312000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 4696.17, "fob_share": 0.991135818258948 }, { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 4, "fob_total_usd": 42, "fob_share": 0.008864181741051925 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 2 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-12T07:42:45.039Z" }