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"supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1.25, "p75": 1.75 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2012, 2014 ], "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_fob": 9066.98, "latest_year_fob": 7832, "peak_year": 2012, "peak_fob": 9066.98, "avg_annual_fob": 8449.49, "median_annual_fob": 8449.49, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.8637936777184907, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.1362063222815093, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.8637936777184907, "peak_multiple": 1.07308015039961, "cagr_fob": -0.1362063222815093 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "COTRAN" ], "primary_name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "members": [ { "entity_id": "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508", "name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "fob": 9066.98, "pct": 0.536540075199805, "qty": 1660, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 5.462036144578313, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2012, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, 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"affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "COTRAN" ], "primary_name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "members": [ { "entity_id": "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508", "name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "fob": 9066.98, "pct": 0.536540075199805, "qty": 1660, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 5.462036144578313, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2012, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 1, "2014": 0 }, "canonical_name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 49, "supplier_market_share": 0.0015154400071921755, "supplier_total_fob": 175549.24, "supplier_importer_count": 4, "customer_hhi": 7999.199360233883, "competitive_index": 6.4, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508" ], "aliases": [ "COTRAN CORPORATION" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.536540075199805, "total_fob": 9066.98, "label": "COTRAN", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 COTRAN 占比最高，约 53.7%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "COTRAN", "group_share": 0.536540075199805, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "1dad9685-2ef5-41a5-8d98-ff00a6a40b70": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "SHAOXING KANGERDA", "group_share": 0.46345992480019504, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.536540075199805, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 9066.98, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.063658892731557, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "COTRAN CORPORATION", "supplier_entity_id": "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508", "total_share": 0.536540075199805, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.536540075199805, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "COTRAN", "group_share": 0.536540075199805, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2012年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点判断它卡的是品牌、合规，还是关键 SKU，再决定值不值得替代。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 54% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 8449.49 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.536540075199805, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "mid", "label": "中度渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "insufficient_data", "scenario_label": "样本不足 · 待核验", "opportunity_type": "待核验型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先核验现状", "advantage_focus": "确认是否仍在采购 + 样本是否有效", "resource_boundary": "样本记录仅 3 条，别按正式开发账户投入节奏、样品和报价。", "matrix_mode": "insufficient_data", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.46345992480019504, "annualized_fob": 8449.49, "active_years": 2, "shipment_count": 3, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5026.7035419121485, "top_supplier_pct": 0.536540075199805, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2012, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2012, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.8637936777184907, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.1362063222815093, "cagr_fob": -0.1362063222815093, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.536540075199805, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.063658892731557, "peak_year": 2012, "peak_fob": 9066.98, "latest_year_fob": 7832 }, "trigger_summary": [ "中度渗透（中国采购 46%）", "主供退出 · 2012年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 86%", "中度集中（HHI 5,027 · Top1 54%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "2e529d30-3bb5-4416-b1e4-f39fab242508": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.536540075199805, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2012, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "COTRAN", "group_share": 0.536540075199805, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 2012年 100% → 2014年 0%（-100pp）；2012 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点判断它卡的是品牌、合规，还是关键 SKU，再决定值不值得替代。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 54% · 已退出当前样本" }, "1dad9685-2ef5-41a5-8d98-ff00a6a40b70": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.46345992480019504, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2014, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2014, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2014, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "SHAOXING KANGERDA", "group_share": 0.46345992480019504, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还稳稳拿着大头，替代门槛明显高于尾部关系。 到 2014 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "更像现有中国供应体系里的核心主供，重点找它没覆盖的品类或服务短板。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 46%" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2012, "prev_year": 2012, "last_year": 2014, "gap_years": 12, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2014年（相较2012年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2014 年，距今已 12 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 3, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 4.631835491241432, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $5.46。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 16898.98, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 1.823611111111111, "max_unit_price": 8.446666666666667, "avg_unit_price": 5.2441046407853635, "median_unit_price": 5.462036144578313 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 3, "date_min": "2012-02-10", "date_max": "2014-12-05", "total_fob_usd": 16898.98, "hs_codes": [ "9018312000", "9018319000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018312000", "row_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 15631.98, "fob_share": 0.9250250606841359 }, { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 1, "fob_total_usd": 1267, "fob_share": 0.07497493931586403 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 2 }, "generated_at": "2026-04-12T11:54:01.744Z" }