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"new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "group_share": 0.8679305338787692, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 87% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 77997.99999999999 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8679305338787692, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "window_open", "scenario_label": "窗口型", "opportunity_type": "窗口型", "action_level": "立刻开发", "entry_position": "打流失份额 / 二供窗口", "advantage_focus": "流失份额 + 替代规格", "resource_boundary": "优先去接正在松动的那一块，别一口气谈全面替代。", "matrix_mode": "share_shift", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999998, "annualized_fob": 196861.04666666672, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 13, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7707.457555206323, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8679305338787692, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.1423719608110705, "cagr_fob": 1.069962299565415, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.1471971821008629, "peak_year": 2015, "peak_fob": 315564.32, "latest_year_fob": 315564.32 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "高度集中（HHI 7,707 · Top1 87%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "28417216-1724-4ff0-a0fa-14ca2b79c0a2": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.8679305338787692, "account_shipment_count": 12, "account_annualized_shipments": 4, "account_avg_gap_days": 64.91, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2471698955065642, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.7528301044934358, "last_active_year_share": 0.7528301044934358, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.7528301044934358, "delta": -0.2471698955065642 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU ZHIYU", "group_share": 0.8679305338787692, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2013年 100% → 2015年 75%（-25pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 87% · 末年份额在回落" }, "aa3accf4-58bf-4fae-bb3f-5ada04227d7f": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.13206946612123058, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2013, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "peak_share": 0.24716989550656424, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.24716989550656424, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.24716989550656424, "last_active_share": 0.24716989550656424, "last_active_year_share": 0.24716989550656424, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.24716989550656424, "to_share": 0.24716989550656424, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "BON VOYAGE", "group_share": 0.13206946612123058, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中", "competitive_signal": "二供这层通常最容易被挤，也最适合新供应商切进去。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "优先判断它接的是备份单、补充规格，还是某个价格带的专门份额。", "entry_angle": "更适合先以第二供应商、备份位或补充型 SKU 的身份切进去。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 13%" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2013, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 13, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.4798139315297547, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 13, "fob_total_usd": 590583.14, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.01929281767955801, "max_unit_price": 0.0285497803806735, "avg_unit_price": 0.025168337232744215, "median_unit_price": 0.02721762863534676 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }