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2015, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.5160704566030271, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.5160704566030271, "supplier_delta": -0.12209061912998159, "supplier_status": "declining", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0.5160704566030271, "2014": 0.2760383287289464, "2015": 0.3939798374730455 }, "canonical_name": "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 42, "supplier_market_share": 0.002066598989248693, "supplier_total_fob": 239395.74000000002, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 9485.711897422716, "competitive_index": 4.33, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99" ], "aliases": [ "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.33270096125390386, "total_fob": 233072.82, "label": "SGA SMART", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 5, "total_group_count": 5, "summary_text": "表面上有 5 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 5 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 5 个，占 94.1%。 其中 SGA SMART 占比最高，约 33.3%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.33270096125390386, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "f0ea16bc-25e5-4f62-809c-f2937db8b8cb": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "KARGEL ADRIAN", "group_share": 0.22268383579083031, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "dbe62d65-fa68-460c-bf40-72df0bcceadd": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "IMPORTACIONES UNIVERSO", "group_share": 0.21712890894989725, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "bd04236a-1c69-4a85-8fd8-8110c7d9bc51": { "group_id": "group-4", "group_label": "DEMAPLAST", "group_share": 0.09765886246568184, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "8e6c452d-ea45-49cb-8bb9-94a7db7c94e9": { "group_id": "group-5", "group_label": "METALURGICA 2000", "group_share": 0.07122195343561866, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.3203426982565122, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 224415.27000000002, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 289.1457805387051, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "SGA SMART GROUP ASIA CO., LTD", "supplier_entity_id": "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99", "total_share": 0.33270096125390386, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.33270096125390386, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 107.86, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "peak_share": 0.5160704566030271, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3939798374730455, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5160704566030271, "last_active_share": 0.3939798374730455, "last_active_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5160704566030271, "to_share": 0.3939798374730455, "delta": -0.12209061912998159 }, "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.33270096125390386, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 份额回落中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2013年 52% → 2015年 39%（-12pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 33% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 14255.0459271914 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.33270096125390386, "supplier_count": 8, "top_supplier_sample_count": 5, "external_group_count": 5, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5160704566030271, "to_share": 0.3939798374730455, "delta": -0.12209061912998159 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "dispersed", "label": "分散型" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 116757.91333333334, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 62, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 2250.7004974762053, "top_supplier_pct": 0.33270096125390386, "top1_first_year_share": 0, "top1_first_active_year": 2013, "top1_first_active_share": 0.5160704566030271, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "top1_peak_share": 0.5160704566030271, "top1_peak_share_year": 2013, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3939798374730455, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.15723266445630732, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.07860805681606675, "cagr_fob": 0.166215290176718, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.3203426982565122, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 289.1457805387051, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 358973.31000000006, "latest_year_fob": 56442.33 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2013年 52% → 2015年 39%（-12pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 16%", "分散型（HHI 2,251 · Top1 33%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "c4863723-78f3-440f-a727-14b751ea6c99": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.33270096125390386, "account_shipment_count": 8, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.67, "account_avg_gap_days": 107.86, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "peak_share": 0.5160704566030271, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3939798374730455, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.12209061912998159, "first_active_year": 2013, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5160704566030271, "last_active_share": 0.3939798374730455, "last_active_year_share": 0.3939798374730455, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2013, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5160704566030271, "to_share": 0.3939798374730455, "delta": -0.12209061912998159 }, "group_label": "SGA SMART", "group_share": 0.33270096125390386, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 份额回落中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2013年 52% → 2015年 39%（-12pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 33% · 末年份额在回落" }, "f0ea16bc-25e5-4f62-809c-f2937db8b8cb": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.22268383579083031, "account_shipment_count": 16, "account_annualized_shipments": 4, "account_avg_gap_days": 73.73, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.07261767216025726, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.3638541267367673, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.07261767216025726, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.07261767216025726, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3638541267367673, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2013, "first_active_share": 0.07261767216025726, "last_active_share": 0.30419002460099326, "last_active_year_share": 0.30419002460099326, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3638541267367673, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.3638541267367673 }, "group_label": "KARGEL ADRIAN", "group_share": 0.22268383579083031, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2012年 36% → 2015年 0%（-36pp）；2013 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 22% · 已退出当前样本" }, "dbe62d65-fa68-460c-bf40-72df0bcceadd": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.21712890894989725, "account_shipment_count": 13, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.17, "account_avg_gap_days": 152.92, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.4354350543849035, "latest_year_share": 0.2344637437894573, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.2344637437894573, "peak_share": 0.6285731488221121, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.20097131059544618, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.20097131059544618, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3941094050326548, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.4354350543849035, "last_active_share": 0.2344637437894573, "last_active_year_share": 0.2344637437894573, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.6285731488221121, "to_share": 0.2344637437894573, "delta": -0.3941094050326548 }, "group_label": "IMPORTACIONES UNIVERSO", "group_share": 0.21712890894989725, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 份额回落中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2011年 63% → 2015年 23%（-39pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 22% · 末年份额在回落" }, "bd04236a-1c69-4a85-8fd8-8110c7d9bc51": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.09765886246568184, "account_shipment_count": 9, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 209.88, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.44837667015868493, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.44837667015868493, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.44837667015868493, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.44837667015868493, "last_active_share": 0.07843259554152328, "last_active_year_share": 0.07843259554152328, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.44837667015868493, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.44837667015868493 }, "group_label": "DEMAPLAST", "group_share": 0.09765886246568184, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2010年 45% → 2015年 0%（-45pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 10% · 已退出当前样本" }, "8e6c452d-ea45-49cb-8bb9-94a7db7c94e9": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "补充型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "持续供货", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.07122195343561866, "account_shipment_count": 5, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 90, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.3673751597426967, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.3673751597426967, "peak_share": 0.3673751597426967, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3673751597426967, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.05271879239948857, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2014, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.3146563673432081, "last_active_share": 0.3673751597426967, "last_active_year_share": 0.3673751597426967, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2014, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.3146563673432081, "to_share": 0.3673751597426967, "delta": 0.05271879239948857 }, "group_label": "METALURGICA 2000", "group_share": 0.07122195343561866, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "补充型 · 持续供货 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2014年 31% → 2015年 37%（+5pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 7%" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 71, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 814.8558293869957, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.03–$2.93（FOB 占比 56%）；中价带 $2.95–$15.20（FOB 占比 26%）；高价带 $15.30–$26.87（FOB 占比 18%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 24, "fob_total_usd": 419860.96, "fob_share": 0.5608755505681066, "min_unit_price": 0.032973220640569394, "max_unit_price": 2.9298222222222225, "avg_unit_price": 1.4596942339581738, "median_unit_price": 2.1951900494233936 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 24, "fob_total_usd": 194070.16000000003, "fob_share": 0.25925060486414486, "min_unit_price": 2.95, "max_unit_price": 15.2, "avg_unit_price": 7.293358290812442, "median_unit_price": 3.5145686147742254 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 134650.2, "fob_share": 0.17987384456774846, "min_unit_price": 15.297368421052632, "max_unit_price": 26.86842105263158, "avg_unit_price": 20.427323527813943, "median_unit_price": 18.225 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }