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"window_score": 3, "barrier_score": 2.5, "trend_score": 4.8, "barrier_score_base": 2.5, "barrier_score_adjustments": [], "barrier_score_reason": "single_locked 基础分 2.5，无额外修正", "trend_score_base": 4, "trend_score_adjustments": [ { "label": "长期 CAGR 为正", "delta": 0.8 } ], "trend_score_reason": "pulse_reverted 基础分 4.0，长期 CAGR 为正+0.8", "priority_score_v2": 4, "priority_weighted_raw": 4.76, "priority_freshness_modifier": -0.75, "priority_override": null, "priority_level": "暂时忽略", "rank": 53, "market_share": 0.0016000847982953518, "suppliers_list": [ { "entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "fob": 144640.59999999998, "pct": 0.7803456435620969, "qty": 4472000, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 0.03234360465116279, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, 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0.09097425570776256, "hs_code": "9018312000", "hs_code_6": "901831", "product_category": "Medical Devices", "hs_description": "Syringes, with or without needles", "hs_description_zh": "注射器，不论是否带针头", "hs_description_es": "Jeringas, incluso con aguja", "total_records": 5595, "country": "哥伦比亚", "country_code": "COL", "snapshot_date": "2015-06-27", "status": "published" }, "top_suppliers": [ { "entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "fob": 144640.59999999998, "pct": 0.7803456435620969, "qty": 4472000, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 0.03234360465116279, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 53, "supplier_market_share": 0.0012486192016797142, "supplier_total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.87, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45" ], "aliases": [ "HSMY CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8", "name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "fob": 40713.93, "pct": 0.21965435643790313, "qty": 954800, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.042641317553414326, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2015, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 99, "supplier_market_share": 0.0003514655966156375, "supplier_total_fob": 40713.93, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.32, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8" ], "aliases": [ "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "all_suppliers": [ { "entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "fob": 144640.59999999998, "pct": 0.7803456435620969, "qty": 4472000, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 0.03234360465116279, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 53, "supplier_market_share": 0.0012486192016797142, "supplier_total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.87, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45" ], "aliases": [ "HSMY CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8", "name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "fob": 40713.93, "pct": 0.21965435643790313, "qty": 954800, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.042641317553414326, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2015, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 99, "supplier_market_share": 0.0003514655966156375, "supplier_total_fob": 40713.93, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.32, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8" ], "aliases": [ "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 2, "raw_top_supplier_count": 2 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 2, "frequency_tier": "低频/项目型采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 145.14, "gap_cv": 1.24, "rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "years_active": 4, "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": "2015", "avg_annual_fob": 46338.63, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 3.67 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 1.33, "p75": 2 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_fob": 38120, "latest_year_fob": 40713.93, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 92760.6, "avg_annual_fob": 46338.63249999999, "median_annual_fob": 39416.965, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 1.0680464323189927, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.06804643231899266, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.4389140432468095, "peak_multiple": 2.353316649315847, "cagr_fob": 0.6226195652829791 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "HSMY" ], "primary_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "members": [ { "entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "fob": 144640.59999999998, "pct": 0.7803456435620969, "qty": 4472000, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 0.03234360465116279, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 53, "supplier_market_share": 0.0012486192016797142, "supplier_total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.87, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45" ], "aliases": [ "HSMY CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7803456435620969, "total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "label": "HSMY", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "DISTRIBIDORA", "CONTINENTAL" ], "primary_name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "members": [ { "entity_id": "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8", "name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "fob": 40713.93, "pct": 0.21965435643790313, "qty": 954800, "shipment_count": 1, "avg_unit_price": 0.042641317553414326, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2015, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2015, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 1, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": 0, "supplier_status": "new_entrant", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 1 }, "canonical_name": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA.", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 99, "supplier_market_share": 0.0003514655966156375, "supplier_total_fob": 40713.93, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 4.32, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8" ], "aliases": [ "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL 6 SA." ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.21965435643790313, "total_fob": 40713.93, "label": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "HSMY" ], "primary_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "members": [ { "entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "fob": 144640.59999999998, "pct": 0.7803456435620969, "qty": 4472000, "shipment_count": 7, "avg_unit_price": 0.03234360465116279, "is_china": false, "supplier_first_active_year": 2012, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2014, "supplier_active_years": 3, "supplier_first_year_share": 1, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 1, "supplier_peak_year_share": 1, "supplier_delta": -1, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2012": 1, "2013": 1, "2014": 1, "2015": 0 }, "canonical_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "country": null, "supplier_rank": 53, "supplier_market_share": 0.0012486192016797142, "supplier_total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 3.87, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45" ], "aliases": [ "HSMY CO., LTD" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.7803456435620969, "total_fob": 144640.59999999998, "label": "HSMY", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 100.0%。 其中 HSMY 占比最高，约 78.0%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "HSMY", "group_share": 0.7803456435620969, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL", "group_share": 0.21965435643790313, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.7803456435620969, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 144640.59999999998, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.2908572417784354, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "HSMY CO., LTD", "supplier_entity_id": "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45", "total_share": 0.7803456435620969, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7803456435620969, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 137, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "HSMY", "group_share": 0.7803456435620969, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 78% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 46338.63249999999 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7803456435620969, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "低 ROI 筛选型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "快速筛选 / 无窗口即跳过", "advantage_focus": "一次性壁垒验证", "resource_boundary": "这类小体量封闭型优先快速筛掉；只有出现明确体系外窗口时，才值得继续投入。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": "screening", "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 46338.63249999999, "active_years": 4, "shipment_count": 8, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 6571.8735972849245, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7803456435620969, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2012, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2012, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.4389140432468095, "latest_vs_first_growth": 0.06804643231899266, "cagr_fob": 0.6226195652829791, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.7803456435620969, "new_supplier_count": 1, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.2908572417784354, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 92760.6, "latest_year_fob": 40713.93 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 44%", "高度集中（HHI 6,572 · Top1 78%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "2632ac94-2e87-45a6-ae0a-55df494b1e45": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7803456435620969, "account_shipment_count": 7, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.33, "account_avg_gap_days": 137, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2012, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -1, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -1, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0, "delta": -1 }, "group_label": "HSMY", "group_share": 0.7803456435620969, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2012年 100% → 2015年 0%（-100pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 78% · 已退出当前样本" }, "1483f5b3-6963-4f41-87e8-cee8c97683e8": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.21965435643790313, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2012, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 1, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2015, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": true, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2015, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0 }, "group_label": "DISTRIBIDORA CONTINENTAL", "group_share": 0.21965435643790313, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 试单观察中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 到 2015 年才进入样本。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 22%" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2012, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 8, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.3325411735441977, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 185354.53, "fob_share": 1, "min_unit_price": 0.032, "max_unit_price": 0.042641317553414326, "avg_unit_price": 0.03423433136084346, "median_unit_price": 0.03241111111111111 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }