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"account_avg_gap_days": 39.58, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.5368352990522488, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5368352990522488, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 }, "group_label": "XUYI WEBEST", "group_share": 0.7854194553149837, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 79% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7854194553149837, "supplier_count": 2, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "project_overflow", "scenario_label": "项目溢出型", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "小切口补位 / 次核心品类", "advantage_focus": "临时补位 + 低投入验证", "resource_boundary": "客户自身需求已明显收缩，即使主供 XUYI WEBEST IMPORT & EXPORT CO., LTD 还在扩张，也不要按持续开发账户来投资源。", "matrix_mode": "project_overflow", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999997, "annualized_fob": 202622.0600000001, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 44, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 6629.285309446038, "top_supplier_pct": 0.7854194553149837, "top1_first_year_share": 0.5368352990522488, "top1_first_active_year": 2011, "top1_first_active_share": 0.5368352990522488, "top1_latest_year_share": 1, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2015, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.10726327329564277, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.0428201782566817, "cagr_fob": 0.4880254023102846, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.21458054468501592, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.088507478295328, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 655654.8, "latest_year_fob": 70327.68000000001 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供扩张 · 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 11%", "高度集中（HHI 6,629 · Top1 79%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "6c793d45-6f74-41cb-a31b-63ba5b03e154": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立贸易商", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.7854194553149837, "account_shipment_count": 34, "account_annualized_shipments": 6.8, "account_avg_gap_days": 39.58, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.5368352990522488, "latest_year_share": 1, "importer_latest_year_share": 1, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2015, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.4631647009477512, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.5368352990522488, "last_active_share": 1, "last_active_year_share": 1, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.5368352990522488, "to_share": 1, "delta": 0.4631647009477512 }, "group_label": "XUYI WEBEST", "group_share": 0.7854194553149837, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2011年 54% → 2015年 100%（+46pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 79% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "f73e815d-8845-4a5a-8945-d2c83d65d0c0": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.21458054468501592, "account_shipment_count": 10, "account_annualized_shipments": 2.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 107.56, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2011, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0.4631647009477511, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.4631647009477511, "peak_share_year": 2011, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.4631647009477511, "first_active_year": 2011, "last_active_year": 2014, "first_active_share": 0.4631647009477511, "last_active_share": 0.281180905782981, "last_active_year_share": 0.281180905782981, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2011, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.4631647009477511, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.4631647009477511 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU KANGHUA", "group_share": 0.21458054468501592, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个历史二供已经退场了，说明这块份额以前是对外开放过的。 2011年 46% → 2015年 0%（-46pp）；2014 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点追踪这部分历史份额后来是被主供收回，还是转给了新的二供。", "entry_angle": "别再围着历史二供本身转，顺着接盘方或空出来的品类去找切口。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 21% · 已退出当前样本" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2011, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 44, "band_count": 1, "range_multiple": 1.548562508576918, "summary_text": "样本期价格主要集中在单一价格带，中位成交价约 $0.03。", "bands": [ { "label": "主价格带", "trade_count": 44, "fob_total_usd": 1013110.3000000004, "fob_share": 1.0000000000000007, "min_unit_price": 0.02227872611464968, "max_unit_price": 0.0345, "avg_unit_price": 0.025846849397652142, "median_unit_price": 0.025079201814602055 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }