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0.5503457842093658, "last_active_year_share": 0.5503457842093658, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.5503457842093658, "delta": -0.44965421579063425 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG HAPOOL", "group_share": 0.5390485869419106, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2010年 100% → 2015年 55%（-45pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 54% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 592240.6362960312 }, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5390485869419106, "supplier_count": 4, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "high", "label": "高渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.5503457842093658, "delta": -0.44965421579063425 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_reverted", "label": "脉冲后回归" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "limited_window", "scenario_label": "壁垒松动 · 增量有限", "opportunity_type": "有限窗口型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "小切口验证 / 流失份额", "advantage_focus": "小切口验证 + 流失份额", "resource_boundary": "窗口存在，但客户自己的增量有限，不宜重仓。", "matrix_mode": "limited_window", "size_tier": "Tier A", "output_depth": "full", "size_variant": "large", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0.9999999999999987, "annualized_fob": 1317102.376666668, "active_years": 6, "shipment_count": 261, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 4373.576519940355, "top_supplier_pct": 0.5304879489334954, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2010, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.5503457842093658, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2010, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.3353645222158713, "latest_vs_first_growth": 1.2586439123957813, "cagr_fob": 0.35199645421755443, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 1.0034966673429855, "peak_year": 2013, "peak_fob": 3322546.739999997, "latest_year_fob": 1114264.2999999998 }, "trigger_summary": [ "高渗透（中国采购 100%）", "主供回落 · 2010年 100% → 2015年 55%（-45pp）", "脉冲后回归 · 末年/峰值 34%", "中度集中（HHI 4,374 · Top1 53%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "9f812949-0cda-4c68-b76f-4f3f779815b5": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "低频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.5390485869419106, "account_shipment_count": 133, "account_annualized_shipments": 22.17, "account_avg_gap_days": 14.63, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.5503457842093658, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.5503457842093658, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2010, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.44965421579063425, "first_active_year": 2010, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.5503457842093658, "last_active_year_share": 0.5503457842093658, "active_year_count": 6, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2010, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.5503457842093658, "delta": -0.44965421579063425 }, "group_label": "SHANDONG HAPOOL", "group_share": 0.5390485869419106, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供的份额在往下掉，客户大概率在重新分货。 2010年 100% → 2015年 55%（-45pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它掉下来的到底是哪类规格、交期，还是哪个价格带，这是最现实的切口。", "entry_angle": "先切次核心品类、交付波动的环节，或者比较容易被拆开的那一小块。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 6 年 · 累计份额 54% · 末年份额在回落" }, "f73e815d-8845-4a5a-8945-d2c83d65d0c0": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.4609514130580881, "account_shipment_count": 128, "account_annualized_shipments": 32, "account_avg_gap_days": 7.72, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2010, "latest_year": 2015, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.44965421579063436, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.44965421579063436, "peak_share": 0.6709896577707745, "peak_share_year": 2013, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.44965421579063436, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.32507181956064984, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.2213354419801401, "first_active_year": 2012, "last_active_year": 2015, "first_active_share": 0.12458239622998452, "last_active_share": 0.44965421579063436, "last_active_year_share": 0.44965421579063436, "active_year_count": 4, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2012, "to_year": 2015, "from_share": 0.12458239622998452, "to_share": 0.44965421579063436, "delta": 0.32507181956064984 }, "group_label": "JIANGSU KANGHUA", "group_share": 0.4609514130580881, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中", "competitive_signal": "这个主供还在继续做大，说明关系稳、执行也强。 2012年 12% → 2015年 45%（+33pp）。", "attack_focus": "先找它没覆盖好的品类、价格带，或者交付上的短板，不要正面对打整盘份额。", "entry_angle": "别一上来谈全面替代，先从主供没覆盖好的小切口进去。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 4 年 · 累计份额 46% · 末年份额还在扩张" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2010, "prev_year": 2014, "last_year": 2015, "gap_years": 11, "freshness": "stale", "trend_prefix": "截至2015年（相较2014年）", "warning_text": "数据截止 2015 年，距今已 11 年。报告更适合用来筛选历史上值得研究的客户，不应直接当作当前采购现状。" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 261, "band_count": 2, "range_multiple": 2.9590565877901827, "summary_text": "存在 2 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.02–$0.03（FOB 占比 51%）；高价带 $0.03–$0.06（FOB 占比 49%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 131, "fob_total_usd": 4014511.2300000032, "fob_share": 0.5079978723395269, "min_unit_price": 0.019453479411088107, "max_unit_price": 0.029216660440791933, "avg_unit_price": 0.025783767600178815, "median_unit_price": 0.02623097390855076 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 130, "fob_total_usd": 3888103.0300000026, "fob_share": 0.4920021276604742, "min_unit_price": 0.029220366379310345, "max_unit_price": 0.05756394640682095, "avg_unit_price": 0.034182793985215336, "median_unit_price": 0.0322 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "payment_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [] } }