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-0.9859192704841089 }, "group_label": "ELANCO", "group_share": 0.0024444195451158654, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2023年 99% → 2025年 0%（-99pp）；2023 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 1478878.9057261634 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.0024444195451158654, "supplier_count": 3, "top_supplier_sample_count": 1, "external_group_count": 1, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9859192704841089, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.9859192704841089 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "pulse_stabilized", "label": "脉冲后稳升" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "壁垒验证型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打尾部 / 外部窗口", "advantage_focus": "壁垒验证 + 外部窗口", "resource_boundary": "先验证品牌、集团采购或合规壁垒，别一上来就报全线价格。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 501277.8333333333, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 7, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 9949.141805627678, "top_supplier_pct": 0.997450848115832, "top1_first_year_share": 0.9859192704841089, "top1_first_active_year": 2023, "top1_first_active_share": 0.9859192704841089, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 0.9859192704841089, "top1_peak_share_year": 2023, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 401.3065575968888, "cagr_fob": 0, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.0024444195451158654, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": null, "peak_year": 2025, "peak_fob": 1500000, "latest_year_fob": 1500000 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2023年 99% → 2025年 0%（-99pp）", "脉冲后稳升 · 末年/峰值 100%", "单一锁定（HHI 9,949 · Top1 100%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "4574f7b5-f1b1-4ae2-bbce-99ac789e525c": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "价格带待核验", "sample_share": 0.0024444195451158654, "account_shipment_count": 1, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "样本不足", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.9859192704841089, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.9859192704841089, "peak_share_year": 2023, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.9859192704841089, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2023, "first_active_share": 0.9859192704841089, "last_active_share": 0.9859192704841089, "last_active_year_share": 0.9859192704841089, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.9859192704841089, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.9859192704841089 }, "group_label": "ELANCO", "group_share": 0.0024444195451158654, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2023年 99% → 2025年 0%（-99pp）；2023 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2023, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 7, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 142857.14285714287, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.35–$0.50（FOB 占比 0%）；中价带 $0.50–$0.50（FOB 占比 0%）；高价带 $18.38–$50000.00（FOB 占比 100%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 3, "fob_total_usd": 102.5, "fob_share": 0.00006815914128791519, "min_unit_price": 0.35, "max_unit_price": 0.5, "avg_unit_price": 0.39999999999999997, "median_unit_price": 0.35 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 55, "fob_share": 0.000036573197764247175, "min_unit_price": 0.5, "max_unit_price": 0.5, "avg_unit_price": 0.5, "median_unit_price": 0.5 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 2, "fob_total_usd": 1503676, "fob_share": 0.9998952676609478, "min_unit_price": 18.38, "max_unit_price": 50000, "avg_unit_price": 25009.19, "median_unit_price": 25009.19 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 7, "date_min": "2023-04-21", "date_max": "2025-07-02", "total_fob_usd": 1503833.5, "hs_codes": [ "9018319000", "9018311000" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018319000", "row_count": 6, "fob_total_usd": 1500157.5, "fob_share": 0.9975555804548841 }, { "hs_code": "9018311000", "row_count": 1, "fob_total_usd": 3676, "fob_share": 0.0024444195451158654 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 2 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T12:18:31.385Z" }