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2025年 67%（-33pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它丢掉的是哪些规格、价格带，还是交付环节出了问题。", "entry_angle": "先盯它正在松动的次核心 SKU 或补充需求，不要一上来谈全面替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 87% · 末年份额在回落", "share_window_fob_estimate": 83449.00000000001 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.8745019472654515, "supplier_count": 5, "top_supplier_sample_count": 3, "external_group_count": 3, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "declining", "raw_key": "declining", "label": "主供回落", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.6680956028166034, "delta": -0.3319043971833966 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "stable", "label": "平稳型" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "single_locked", "label": "单一锁定" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_barrier", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 堡垒型", "opportunity_type": "壁垒验证型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打尾部 / 外部窗口", "advantage_focus": "壁垒验证 + 外部窗口", "resource_boundary": "先验证品牌、集团采购或合规壁垒，别一上来就报全线价格。", "matrix_mode": "zero_barrier", "size_tier": "Tier B", "output_depth": "compact", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 222343.42333333337, "active_years": 3, "shipment_count": 75, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 7727.917558417807, "top_supplier_pct": 0.8745019472654515, "top1_first_year_share": 1, "top1_first_active_year": 2023, "top1_first_active_share": 1, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.6680956028166034, "top1_peak_share": 1, "top1_peak_share_year": 2023, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.6803382121631818, "latest_vs_first_growth": 4.46018971961196, "cagr_fob": 0, "exited_supplier_count": 0, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 15.57577325559949, "peak_year": 2024, "peak_fob": 369558.56000000006, "latest_year_fob": 251424.80999999997 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供回落 · 2023年 100% → 2025年 67%（-33pp）", "平稳型 · 末年/峰值 68%", "高度集中（HHI 7,728 · Top1 87%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "5149446e-32b3-4a2f-b40f-bd81c9431601": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "价格带待核验", "sample_share": 0.8745019472654515, "account_shipment_count": 60, "account_annualized_shipments": 20, "account_avg_gap_days": 17.69, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 1, "latest_year_share": 0.6680956028166034, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.6680956028166034, "peak_share": 1, "peak_share_year": 2023, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3319043971833966, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 1, "last_active_share": 0.6680956028166034, "last_active_year_share": 0.6680956028166034, "active_year_count": 3, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 1, "to_share": 0.6680956028166034, "delta": -0.3319043971833966 }, "group_label": "IMPORTACIONES NEMMESIS", "group_share": 0.8745019472654515, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额回落中 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供的盘子在往下掉，说明客户大概率在重新分这块采购。 2023年 100% → 2025年 67%（-33pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点看它丢掉的是哪些规格、价格带，还是交付环节出了问题。", "entry_angle": "先盯它正在松动的次核心 SKU 或补充需求，不要一上来谈全面替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 3 年 · 累计份额 87% · 末年份额在回落" }, "84c05afd-3a62-40c6-8584-7fbb5113784e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "价格带待核验", "sample_share": 0.0016491005723023632, "account_shipment_count": 3, "account_annualized_shipments": 1.5, "account_avg_gap_days": 306, "account_rhythm_label": "计划性补货", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.003500052361578796, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.003500052361578796, "peak_share": 0.003500052361578796, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.003500052361578796, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.002904747520040286, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2024, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.00059530484153851, "last_active_share": 0.003500052361578796, "last_active_year_share": 0.003500052361578796, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.00059530484153851, "to_share": 0.003500052361578796, "delta": 0.002904747520040286 }, "group_label": "ACE", "group_share": 0.0016491005723023632, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 0%" }, "85263700-d488-451c-bdb3-1257152bd4aa": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "试单观察中", "price_role": "价格带待核验", "sample_share": 0.00012593131643036227, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 1, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2023, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "peak_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.00016704795362080618, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.0000533988475089088, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2024, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.00011364910611189738, "last_active_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "last_active_year_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "active_year_count": 2, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2024, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.00011364910611189738, "to_share": 0.00016704795362080618, "delta": 0.0000533988475089088 }, "group_label": "TUOREN TRADE", "group_share": 0.00012593131643036227, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 试单观察中 · 价格带待核验", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 2 年 · 累计份额 0%" } }, "decision_summary": null }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2023, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 75, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 56.56880952380952, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.42–$5.14（FOB 占比 21%）；中价带 $5.30–$6.35（FOB 占比 52%）；高价带 $6.46–$23.76（FOB 占比 27%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 139491.73, "fob_share": 0.20912353797676983, "min_unit_price": 0.42, "max_unit_price": 5.138477611940298, "avg_unit_price": 3.1514920969273867, "median_unit_price": 3.6203999999999996 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 349848.08999999997, "fob_share": 0.524486077670808, "min_unit_price": 5.302989361702128, "max_unit_price": 6.351622673434855, "avg_unit_price": 5.818821486468564, "median_unit_price": 5.781601990049752 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 25, "fob_total_usd": 177690.45000000004, "fob_share": 0.26639038435242235, "min_unit_price": 6.45716, "max_unit_price": 23.758899999999997, "avg_unit_price": 10.454467307004549, "median_unit_price": 6.903706467661692 } ] }, "capability_summary": { "full": [ "total_fob", "market_share", "priority_score", "annual_trend", "cagr", "latest_vs_peak", "supplier_structure", "top_supplier_trajectory", "china_penetration", "scenario", "procurement_rhythm", "port_distribution", "market_benchmark" ], "degraded": [ "price_analysis", "group_structure" ], "skipped": [ "payment_distribution" ] } }