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"affiliated_to_importer": false }, "73d815d7-4095-4729-a27c-b9ecd53725da": { "group_id": "group-3", "group_label": "BD", "group_share": 0.003505713564229109, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.003505713564229109, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 59415.17, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 622.507011597088, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "BECTON DICKINSON INFUSION THERAPY SYSTEMS INC.", "supplier_entity_id": "6d472ed2-e9e0-4141-a2b0-bf8ced87ed38", "total_share": 0.6266100036408865, "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.6266100036408865, "account_shipment_count": 628, "account_annualized_shipments": 125.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 2.9, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 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78%（+39pp）。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 63% · 末年份额还在扩张", "share_window_fob_estimate": 0 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.6266100036408865, "supplier_count": 6, "top_supplier_sample_count": 3, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0.6266100036408865 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "expanding", "raw_key": "expanding", "label": "主供扩张", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.38972107087982427, "to_share": 0.7838364196517649, "delta": 0.3941153487719406 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "growth", "label": "持续增长" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_education", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 教育型（大客户）", "opportunity_type": "新渗透型", "action_level": "先研究", "entry_position": "打教育切口 / 监管外窗口", "advantage_focus": "壁垒研究 + 教育策略", "resource_boundary": "这类零渗透大客户值得先做壁垒研究，但别只靠低价开口，要先证明中国来源可被接受。", "matrix_mode": "zero_education", "size_tier": "Tier A", "output_depth": "full", "size_variant": "large", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 3389619.1980000017, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 1299, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 5221.97745944051, "top_supplier_pct": 0.6266100036408865, "top1_first_year_share": 0.38972107087982427, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 0.38972107087982427, "top1_latest_year_share": 0.7838364196517649, "top1_peak_share": 0.7838364196517649, "top1_peak_share_year": 2025, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3941153487719406, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.3941153487719406, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 1, "latest_vs_first_growth": 4.066154300808004, "cagr_fob": 0.5002706157070718, "exited_supplier_count": 1, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.003505713564229109, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 622.507011597088, "peak_year": 2025, "peak_fob": 6773153.449999997, "latest_year_fob": 6773153.449999997 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供扩张 · 2021年 39% → 2025年 78%（+39pp）", "持续增长 · 末年/峰值 100%", "中度集中（HHI 5,222 · Top1 63%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "6d472ed2-e9e0-4141-a2b0-bf8ced87ed38": { "supplier_affiliation": "集团关联方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "常规采购", "trend_role": "份额扩张中", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.6266100036408865, "account_shipment_count": 628, "account_annualized_shipments": 125.6, "account_avg_gap_days": 2.9, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.38972107087982427, "latest_year_share": 0.7838364196517649, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.7838364196517649, "peak_share": 0.7838364196517649, "peak_share_year": 2025, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0.3941153487719406, "share_delta_active_to_latest": 0.3941153487719406, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": 0, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.38972107087982427, "last_active_share": 0.7838364196517649, "last_active_year_share": 0.7838364196517649, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.38972107087982427, "to_share": 0.7838364196517649, "delta": 0.3941153487719406 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.6266100036408865, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": true, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 份额扩张中 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "这更像体系内供方，先把它当成壁垒来看，不要急着当成替代目标。 2021年 39% → 2025年 78%（+39pp）。", "attack_focus": "先搞清楚它卡住的是集团采购、指定品牌，还是注册/合规这类门槛。", "entry_angle": "先找体系外补单、非核心规格或外部窗口，再决定要不要正面投入。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 63% · 末年份额还在扩张" }, "068e99e6-258f-4f16-b8a2-bae9740383cc": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "核心跟随型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "份额回落中", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.35982107745897884, "account_shipment_count": 642, "account_annualized_shipments": 128.4, "account_avg_gap_days": 2.77, "account_rhythm_label": "项目/随机采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.48271004766250847, "latest_year_share": 0.21616358034823513, "importer_latest_year_share": 0.21616358034823513, "peak_share": 0.5961696198451437, "peak_share_year": 2022, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.26654646731427334, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.26654646731427334, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.3800060394969086, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2025, "first_active_share": 0.48271004766250847, "last_active_share": 0.21616358034823513, "last_active_year_share": 0.21616358034823513, "active_year_count": 5, "exited_in_latest_year": false, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2022, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.5961696198451437, "to_share": 0.21616358034823513, "delta": -0.3800060394969086 }, "group_label": "SWITZERLAND SARL", "group_share": 0.35982107745897884, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "核心跟随型 · 份额回落中 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "这类外部二供最有参考价值，用它来判断客户到底接不接受体系外供应。 2022年 60% → 2025年 22%（-38pp）。", "attack_focus": "重点确认它拿到的是备份份额、补充规格，还是阶段性试单。", "entry_angle": "如果这种二供都能进去，就说明账户大概率还有外部窗口。", "entry_difficulty": "中", "difficulty_reason": "供货 5 年 · 累计份额 36% · 末年份额在回落" }, "73d815d7-4095-4729-a27c-b9ecd53725da": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "低价带", "sample_share": 0.003505713564229109, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.01847921643668772, "peak_share_year": 2023, "share_delta_first_to_latest": 0, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.01847921643668772, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.01847921643668772, "first_active_year": 2023, "last_active_year": 2023, "first_active_share": 0.01847921643668772, "last_active_share": 0.01847921643668772, "last_active_year_share": 0.01847921643668772, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2023, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.01847921643668772, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.01847921643668772 }, "group_label": "BD", "group_share": 0.003505713564229109, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 低价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2023 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 1299, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 47839.76427908402, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.01–$0.07（FOB 占比 35%）；中价带 $0.07–$31.65（FOB 占比 43%）；高价带 $31.67–$312.09（FOB 占比 23%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 433, "fob_total_usd": 5906413.200000001, "fob_share": 0.34850010310804264, "min_unit_price": 0.006523722222222222, "max_unit_price": 0.06723605225262291, "avg_unit_price": 0.036942300412942795, "median_unit_price": 0.03707585034013605 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 433, "fob_total_usd": 7208053.939999999, "fob_share": 0.4253016943173451, "min_unit_price": 0.06724194610162518, "max_unit_price": 31.647000000000002, "avg_unit_price": 15.541181188922884, "median_unit_price": 26.07 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 433, "fob_total_usd": 3833628.8500000006, "fob_share": 0.2261982025746128, "min_unit_price": 31.672090909090908, "max_unit_price": 312.0933333333333, "avg_unit_price": 44.763750544587474, "median_unit_price": 40.33273809523809 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 1299, "date_min": "2021-01-06", "date_max": "2025-12-30", "total_fob_usd": 16948095.98999999, "hs_codes": [ "90183101", "90183199" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "90183101", "row_count": 1294, "fob_total_usd": 16942181.16999999, "fob_share": 0.999651003864771 }, { "hs_code": "90183199", "row_count": 5, "fob_total_usd": 5914.82, "fob_share": 0.00034899613522899355 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 7 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T12:25:45.168Z" }