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CIRURGICAS LTDA.-" ], "variant_count": 1 }, { "entity_id": "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e", "name": "SMITHS MEDICAL", "fob": 573.36, "pct": 0.0007664634848646724, "qty": 31, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 18.495483870967742, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_delta": -0.001678968147922084, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.001678968147922084, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SMITHS MEDICAL", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 48, "supplier_market_share": 0.00003666401360937798, "supplier_total_fob": 573.36, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 2.09, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e" ], "aliases": [ "SMITHS MEDICAL" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "raw_supplier_count": 5, "raw_top_supplier_count": 2 }, "account_analysis": { "importer_procurement": { "annualized_shipments": 13.8, "frequency_tier": "常规采购账户", "avg_gap_days": 26.51, "gap_cv": 1.17, "rhythm_label": "常规补货", "years_active": 5, "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": "2025", "avg_annual_fob": 149611.82, "benchmarks": { "p25": 1, "p75": 4.13 } }, "supplier_frequency_thresholds": { "p25": 5.75, "p75": 13.25 }, "trend_metrics": { "years": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_fob": 341495.45999999996, "latest_year_fob": 96416.5, "peak_year": 2021, "peak_fob": 341495.45999999996, "avg_annual_fob": 149611.82399999996, "median_annual_fob": 96416.5, "latest_vs_first_ratio": 0.28233611070554204, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.717663889294458, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.28233611070554204, "peak_multiple": 3.5418777906271224, "cagr_fob": -0.27106029454402747 }, "supplier_rollup": { "groups": [ { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "BECTON", "DICKINSON" ], "primary_name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "members": [ { "entity_id": "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7", "name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "fob": 340922.1, "pct": 0.45574218786344056, "qty": 4488750, "shipment_count": 17, "avg_unit_price": 0.0759503425229741, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_delta": -0.998321031852078, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.998321031852078, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 1, "supplier_market_share": 0.02385514732699706, "supplier_total_fob": 373052.1, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 8425.810910670343, "competitive_index": 7.86, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7" ], "aliases": [ "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.45574218786344056, "total_fob": 340922.1, "label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, { "id": "group-2", "tokens": [ "SMITHS" ], "primary_name": "SMITHS MEDICAL", "members": [ { "entity_id": "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e", "name": "SMITHS MEDICAL", "fob": 573.36, "pct": 0.0007664634848646724, "qty": 31, "shipment_count": 2, "avg_unit_price": 18.495483870967742, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "supplier_delta": -0.001678968147922084, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.001678968147922084, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "SMITHS MEDICAL", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 48, "supplier_market_share": 0.00003666401360937798, "supplier_total_fob": 573.36, "supplier_importer_count": 1, "customer_hhi": 10000, "competitive_index": 2.09, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e" ], "aliases": [ "SMITHS MEDICAL" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.0007664634848646724, "total_fob": 573.36, "label": "SMITHS", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 } ], "dominant_group": { "id": "group-1", "tokens": [ "BECTON", "DICKINSON" ], "primary_name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "members": [ { "entity_id": "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7", "name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "fob": 340922.1, "pct": 0.45574218786344056, "qty": 4488750, "shipment_count": 17, "avg_unit_price": 0.0759503425229741, "is_china": false, "first_year": "2021", "supplier_first_active_year": 2021, "supplier_latest_active_year": 2021, "supplier_active_years": 1, "supplier_first_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_latest_year_share": 0, "supplier_last_active_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_peak_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "supplier_delta": -0.998321031852078, "supplier_status": "exited", "supplier_share_by_year": { "2021": 0.998321031852078, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0 }, "canonical_name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "country": "US", "supplier_rank": 1, "supplier_market_share": 0.02385514732699706, "supplier_total_fob": 373052.1, "supplier_importer_count": 2, "customer_hhi": 8425.810910670343, "competitive_index": 7.86, "competitive_signal": "高度绑定型供应商", "entity_ids": [ "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7" ], "aliases": [ "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-" ], "variant_count": 1 } ], "total_share": 0.45574218786344056, "total_fob": 340922.1, "label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "affiliated_to_importer": false, "member_count": 1 }, "affiliated_share": 0, "external_group_count": 2, "total_group_count": 2, "summary_text": "表面上有 2 家 supplier 参与该账户，但按集团归集后可视为 2 个供应集团。 真正独立的外部供应集团约 2 个，占 45.7%。 其中 BECTON DICKINSON 占比最高，约 45.6%。", "uncertain_group_pairs": [], "uncertain_group_summary": "", "by_supplier": { "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7": { "group_id": "group-1", "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.45574218786344056, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false }, "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e": { "group_id": "group-2", "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.0007664634848646724, "group_member_count": 1, "affiliated_to_importer": false } } }, "supplier_structure_metrics": { "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.45650865134830526, "exited_supplier_fob_total": 341495.45999999996, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 598.8543444549947, "top_supplier_metrics": { "supplier_name": "BECTON DICKINSON IND. CIRURGICAS LTDA.-", "supplier_entity_id": "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7", "total_share": 0.45574218786344056, "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.45574218786344056, "account_shipment_count": 17, "account_annualized_shipments": 17, "account_avg_gap_days": 20.88, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.998321031852078, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 0.998321031852078, "last_active_share": 0.998321031852078, "last_active_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.998321031852078, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.998321031852078 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.45574218786344056, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 46% · 已退出当前样本", "share_window_fob_estimate": 149360.63051295144 }, "china_top1_latest_share": 0, "entry_window_verdict": "standard_entry", "top_supplier_pct": 0.45574218786344056, "supplier_count": 5, "top_supplier_sample_count": 2, "external_group_count": 2, "affiliated_share": 0 }, "scenario_assessment": { "penetration_tier": { "key": "zero", "label": "零渗透" }, "lead_supplier_motion": { "key": "stable", "raw_key": "stable", "label": "主供稳定", "override_applied": false, "reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.998321031852078, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.998321031852078 } }, "demand_pattern": { "key": "shrinking", "label": "持续萎缩" }, "barrier_tier": { "key": "concentrated", "label": "中度集中" }, "scenario_key": "zero_penetration_shrinking", "scenario_label": "零渗透 · 收缩型", "opportunity_type": "暂缓型", "action_level": "暂时忽略", "entry_position": "先不投入", "advantage_focus": "先确认是否还在采购", "resource_boundary": "客户既没用中国又在收缩，别急着投报价、样品和跟进节奏。", "matrix_mode": "zero_shrinking", "size_tier": "Tier C", "output_depth": "screening", "size_variant": "small", "compact_template": null, "trigger_metrics": { "china_penetration": 0, "annualized_fob": 149611.82399999996, "active_years": 5, "shipment_count": 69, "insufficient_data_shipment_threshold": 3, "hhi": 3604.777704069069, "top_supplier_pct": 0.45574218786344056, "top1_first_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "top1_first_active_year": 2021, "top1_first_active_share": 0.998321031852078, "top1_latest_year_share": 0, "top1_peak_share": 0.998321031852078, "top1_peak_share_year": 2021, "top1_share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "top1_share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "top1_share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "latest_vs_peak_ratio": 0.28233611070554204, "latest_vs_first_growth": -0.717663889294458, "cagr_fob": -0.27106029454402747, "exited_supplier_count": 2, "exited_supplier_share_total": 0.45650865134830526, "new_supplier_count": 0, "supplier_price_gap_ratio": 598.8543444549947, "peak_year": 2021, "peak_fob": 341495.45999999996, "latest_year_fob": 96416.5 }, "trigger_summary": [ "零渗透（中国采购 0%）", "主供退出 · 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）", "持续萎缩 · 末年/峰值 28%", "中度集中（HHI 3,605 · Top1 46%）" ] }, "supplier_analysis": { "ff5ff554-ed90-4fab-969a-38917b20dba7": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "主导型", "frequency_role": "高频采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "中价带", "sample_share": 0.45574218786344056, "account_shipment_count": 17, "account_annualized_shipments": 17, "account_avg_gap_days": 20.88, "account_rhythm_label": "常规补货", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.998321031852078, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.998321031852078, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 0.998321031852078, "last_active_share": 0.998321031852078, "last_active_year_share": 0.998321031852078, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.998321031852078, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.998321031852078 }, "group_label": "BECTON DICKINSON", "group_share": 0.45574218786344056, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "主导型 · 已停止采购", "competitive_signal": "这个外部主供还压着大头，先把它当成主要壁垒去看。 2021年 100% → 2025年 0%（-100pp）；2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "先判断它卡住的是品牌、注册，还是关键规格和质量门槛。", "entry_angle": "没验证出外部窗口前，别急着和主供正面对打。", "entry_difficulty": "高", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 46% · 已退出当前样本" }, "789698d0-4525-4f0c-8a82-67aea530666e": { "supplier_affiliation": "独立供应方", "share_role": "边缘/试单型", "frequency_role": "一次性采购", "trend_role": "已停止采购", "price_role": "高价带", "sample_share": 0.0007664634848646724, "account_shipment_count": 2, "account_annualized_shipments": 2, "account_avg_gap_days": null, "account_rhythm_label": "一次性/低频采购", "first_year": 2021, "latest_year": 2025, "first_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "latest_year_share": 0, "importer_latest_year_share": 0, "peak_share": 0.001678968147922084, "peak_share_year": 2021, "share_delta_first_to_latest": -0.001678968147922084, "share_delta_active_to_latest": -0.001678968147922084, "share_delta_peak_to_latest": -0.001678968147922084, "first_active_year": 2021, "last_active_year": 2021, "first_active_share": 0.001678968147922084, "last_active_share": 0.001678968147922084, "last_active_year_share": 0.001678968147922084, "active_year_count": 1, "exited_in_latest_year": true, "new_entrant_in_latest_year": false, "share_change_reference": { "from_year": 2021, "to_year": 2025, "from_share": 0.001678968147922084, "to_share": 0, "delta": -0.001678968147922084 }, "group_label": "SMITHS", "group_share": 0.0007664634848646724, "group_member_count": 1, "group_affiliated_to_importer": false, "relationship_summary": "边缘/试单型 · 已停止采购 · 高价带", "competitive_signal": "尾部或试单关系更像窗口信号，重点不是量，而是看门有没有开。 2021 年后没有再出现。", "attack_focus": "重点看这种小单对应的是特殊规格、临时补货，还是验证单。", "entry_angle": "先把它当成窗口信号，不要把这种小额关系误判成能立刻大规模替代。", "entry_difficulty": "中低", "difficulty_reason": "供货 1 年 · 累计份额 0% · 已退出当前样本" } } }, "time_context": { "first_year": 2021, "prev_year": 2024, "last_year": 2025, "gap_years": 1, "freshness": "fresh", "trend_prefix": "最近一年（2024→2025）", "warning_text": "" }, "price_analysis": { "sample_count": 69, "band_count": 3, "range_multiple": 1384.7368421052631, "summary_text": "存在 3 个明显价格带：低价带 $0.06–$0.08（FOB 占比 36%）；中价带 $0.08–$0.10（FOB 占比 41%）；高价带 $0.10–$78.93（FOB 占比 23%）。", "bands": [ { "label": "低价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 269296.6, "fob_share": 0.35999373953224445, "min_unit_price": 0.057, "max_unit_price": 0.08119402985074627, "avg_unit_price": 0.06989956888121741, "median_unit_price": 0.07 }, { "label": "中价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 304268.3, "fob_share": 0.40674365416466013, "min_unit_price": 0.08268805309734513, "max_unit_price": 0.0965593577257173, "avg_unit_price": 0.08947852764670781, "median_unit_price": 0.08936662606577345 }, { "label": "高价带", "trade_count": 23, "fob_total_usd": 174494.21999999997, "fob_share": 0.23326260630309537, "min_unit_price": 0.09676190476190476, "max_unit_price": 78.93, "avg_unit_price": 4.621516742561682, "median_unit_price": 0.1 } ] }, "decision_summary": null, "raw_export_summary": { "row_count": 69, "date_min": "2021-01-21", "date_max": "2025-12-29", "total_fob_usd": 748059.12, "hs_codes": [ "9018311900", "9018311100", "9018311990", "9018311910", "90183119", "90183111" ], "hs_breakdown": [ { "hs_code": "9018311900", "row_count": 31, "fob_total_usd": 233899, "fob_share": 0.3126744848722652 }, { "hs_code": "90183111", "row_count": 9, "fob_total_usd": 213185.6, "fob_share": 0.28498496215111985 }, { "hs_code": "90183119", "row_count": 10, "fob_total_usd": 128309.86, "fob_share": 0.17152368919718539 }, { "hs_code": "9018311910", "row_count": 8, "fob_total_usd": 102082, "fob_share": 0.13646247638822986 }, { "hs_code": "9018311990", "row_count": 6, "fob_total_usd": 37666.66, "fob_share": 0.05035251759245981 }, { "hs_code": "9018311100", "row_count": 5, "fob_total_usd": 32916, "fob_share": 0.04400186979873997 } ], "supplier_raw_count": 10 }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T11:36:20.605Z" }